Thursday looks like a halfway decent surf day.
We will have a mix of slowly fading WNW windswell, leftover S-SW swell, and some new SW swell (200-220) that will be arriving with long-period energy through the morning filling in slowly throughout the day.
Most exposed breaks will hold surf in the knee-chest high range. Standout SW facing spots, and good combo breaks will be more consistently around chest high and will start to see a few chest-shoulder high sets sneaking through as we get closer to the afternoon.
The new SW’er may be a little inconsistent at times so expect to wait around for sets.
Winds will be much better than we experienced on Wednesday. Look for them to start off mostly light and variable to light ESE (down through OC and San Diego)…all areas should stay below 5-knots in the morning. These winds shift onshore through the day and eventually push in out of the W around 10-12+ knots for the afternoon.
San Diego and South OC will likely be your best bet for surf tomorrow. They will both have decent exposure to both the WNW and SW swell mix, which will let the windswell fill in the gaps between the SW sets. The north South Bay and Southern Ventura will be decent fall-back regions but won’t have much of the building SW energy.
Don’t expect it to be outstanding tomorrow…just a lot better than it has been for the last few days. I would still probably make a cam check in the morning…just so you don’t get skunked by the tide…or pick a shadowed spot on accident.
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2 comments:
hey adam, i was wondering, how can you know if there will be a glass-off in the evening? can you give us the indicators of a possible glass off in the evening (i.e. winds, Hi or Lo pressure, etc)?
thanks!
Good question
Evening glass-offs are hard to nail down, mostly because there are so many dynamic factors that have to slip into place before it can happen.
Usually you need a reason for the wind to shift out of its more normal NW pattern…this can be caused by a big weather feature like a storm or the repositioning of a large ridge of high pressure.
It can also be caused by more micro-climate features…particularly if we have high pressure ridging over SoCal blocking off the more normal winds.
So my advice is to watch for high-pressure holding over SoCal…but also watch for land and water temps to be about even. When the land is warmer than the water that usually sets up a sea-breeze…the other side of that is true too…so if water is warmer than the land then air flows back to sea in an offshore land-breeze.
From a big weather standpoint, Santa Anas conditions have a high possibility of glass-offs. Approaching storm fronts do as well…there is a little pocket that forms before the S winds of the front start to arrive.
Hopefully this makes sense…let me know if you have other questions.
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