Friday, June 25, 2010

Waves for the Weekend – SW swell and some tropical SE-S swell from Hurricane Celia

Overall I would call this weekend rideable…but it will be hampered from reaching its true potential by local winds. (Stupid Eddy…I bet it is controlled by the dolphins.)

There will be surf this weekend…we have new SW swell (190-220) starting to fill in on Saturday, eventually peaking on Sunday and holding into Monday. On Saturday we will also have a mix of background tropical energy, some SW leftovers from TS Blas and some new SE forerunners form Hurricane Celia, but neither will bring in very much size. Look for NW windswell to hold steady in the background.

We can expect average spots to see surf in the chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets pulsing in at the better SW facing breaks. The top S-SW spots and the excellent combo breaks will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high sets showing by the end of the day. Maybe even a few plus sets at times at the best sets.

Winds look light in the morning…with a little W flow around Santa Barbara and Ventura, variable winds throughout LA, and light Southerly winds for Orange County and San Diego. Most areas will see winds below 10-knots, but expect some texture at the more open breaks.

Sunday the SW swell (190-220) will start to peak, while new tropical SSE-SE swell moves in from Celia and the NW windswell continues to stick around in the background.

Average spots with S-SW exposure will see surf in the chest-head high range…a little inconsistent on the sets if the break is only exposed to the SW energy. The standout S facing spots, particularly the breaks that can pull in both SW and SE swell like a few of those in Orange County, will have surf in the shoulder-overhead range…with some larger sets, likely a couple of feet overhead, showing by late in the day. (the peak of the tropical swell will likely arrive on Monday).

Winds look a bit lighter on Sunday…the eddy flow will still be out there, but in general it won’t be as intense. Look for light onshore texture from the W in SB and Ventura…with some more variable winds in LA. OC and SD will see the light S winds again…but winds look slower, more in the 3-5 knot range, and they get a later start too…coming in right around dawn, which should suppress the wind bump a little more.

I think there will be some fun this weekend…even some occasionally healthy sized surf as the two SW and SE swells peak. I am still being a bit conservative on the Hurricane Celia swell…especially now that she has started to back off her intensity (she is down to a Cat-4 and is still weakening)…but there is always a chance that she could have out-produced her estimated wind speeds…so I would keep an eye on the buoys as we head into Sunday and Monday.

I think the points and reefs are going to have the best shape…with these SE-SW swells in the water it is bound to get pretty lined up at the beach breaks (the SE facing beach breaks will be particularly walled up and will see a lot of side-shore and rip currents once the tropical swell fills in). Like I said above…the buoys and live swell models (like the CDIP) are going to be your friends this weekend…make sure to use them to home in on the exposed areas, (or avoid them if you want smaller surf).

Here are the tides…happy hunting this weekend…stay safe!

06/26/2010 Saturday
04:26AM LDT -1.0 L
10:53AM LDT 3.6 H
03:28PM LDT 2.2 L
09:33PM LDT 6.0 H

06/27/2010 Sunday
05:01AM LDT -0.9 L
11:27AM LDT 3.6 H
04:07PM LDT 2.2 L
10:08PM LDT 5.8 H


Default said...

Regarding the dolphins controlling eddies, a lot of people don't realize what's really going on. They view life as a bunch of unconnected incidents and things. They don't realize there's this, like, lattice of coincidence that lays on top of everythin- I’ll give you an example and show you what I mean. Suppose you're thinking about a... plate of carnitas. Suddenly, somebody'll say, like, "plate," or "carnitas," or "plate of carnitas," out of the blue. There’s no explanation for it, and no point in looking for one, either. It's all part of THE Cosmic Unconsciousness.

I'll give you another instance. You know the way everybody's into weirdness right now? Tabloids in all the supermarkets about Bermuda Triangles? UFOs? How the Mayans invented television? That kinda thing? Well, the way I see it, it's exactly the same. There ain't no difference between a flying saucer and a time machine. People get so hung up on specifics, they miss seeing the whole thing. Take Mexico, for example. In Mexico, thousands of people go missing every year. Nobody knows where they go -- they just, like, disappear. But if you think about it for a minute, you realize something. There had to be a time when there was no people in Mexico, right?

Well, where did all these people come from? I'll tell you where. The future! Where did all these people disappear to? The past! And how did they get there? Flying saucers….Which are really?... Yeah, you got it. Time machines! I think a lot about this kind of stuff. I do my best thinking when I’m in the water on my surfboard. That's how come I don't SUP, see? I don't wanna know how. I don't wanna learn. Why? The more you SUP, the less intelligent you are. If I lose my intelligence, I’ll never figure out how the dolphins control eddies. That’s why I’ll never SUP.

Anonymous said...

Nice way to rip off Repo Man, kook.

Anonymous said...

keep yo hippie jazz out of surfing! ^^

Anonymous said...

what the hell is that guy talking about? dude, stop smokin the wacky tabaccy!

bwdinhb said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...


Adam Wright said...

Hey now…ease up on the interweb bashing (unless it is properly directed towards the dolphins)…the forecast blog is supposed to be a fun place, filled with unicorns and rainbows, not the usual anonymous hazing…that crap is so tiresome…you should go surf or something and get it out of your system.

In my humble opinion it isn't the craft, but the person riding it, who defines how it affects the lineup. I am sure that most of us would rather have a selfish person out of the water no matter what he is floating on or swimming with.

Anonymous said...

Stupid eddie

Anonymous said...

7-8ft barrels at select spots in newport south of point, wedge had some 10 footers early, pretty funny how 200+ guys out at 18th only think it breaks on hurricane swells
Contest at lowers must've been CRAAAAZYY