Monday, June 14, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/14/2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/14/2010

Forecast Overview
SW swell holds into Tuesday and then trails off through the end of the week. Small WNW-NW windswell will pulse on and off in the background. We can expect mostly weak leftovers by the next weekend. A new storm is starting to brew up in the long-range that will help to break us out of the run of smaller waves…cross your fingers it can pull together.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (holding SW swell and some bigger background NW windswell)
The SW swell (190-215) will continue to hold into Tuesday…though some of the longer-period energy with begin to drop out. The mix of local NW windswell will pulse up a bit and turn more westerly (288-300 vs 290-300+) so there might be a few more peaks showing at the combo spots. Most breaks will continue to hold around chest high with a few of the better combo breaks and SW exposed spots see some inconsistent chest high sets. Standout SW facing spots will be in the chest-head high range with a few inconsistent bigger waves sneaking in through the morning tide push. Winds/Weather: The eddy strengthens slightly on Tuesday...morning winds will put a little S-WSW texture on the more open beaches but overall speeds will be below 5-knots so the bump shouldn’t be too bad. W-WNW winds reach 10-15 knots in the afternoon.

Wednesday – (slow fade)
SW swell will fade slowly on Wednesday but will hold onto enough energy to keep our waves rideable/playful. NW windswell comes up another touch…not really big enough to do much on its own but it should be able to break up the Southern Hemi swell. Average SW facing spots and good combo breaks will see waist-chest high surf with a few rare combo peaks hitting shoulder high. The standout SW facing breaks and the excellent combo breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range…expect a few bigger waves showing at the standouts on the morning tide push. Winds/Weather: Still overcast…still sort of eddy…but overall winds look pretty light. Expect 2-3 knot light/S-variable winds on tap for the morning. Winds shift W-WSW and build into the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.

Thursday – (Mostly leftovers)
The SW swell (185-210) will continue to taper off on Thursday while the NW windswell fades and we see a few scattered pulses of S-SW energy filtering through the background. Overall surf will be in the knee-waist high range at the average spots with a few rare chest high peaks at the good combo breaks. The Standout SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range along some inconsistent shoulder high waves sneaking in on the tide push. Winds/Weather: Conditions clean up on Thursday...the eddy circulation will take a little break in the morning, setting up light and variable winds for most areas and even a few pockets of light-offshore flow near the passes and canyons up around Santa Barbara, Ventura, and North LA. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots to push onshore by the afternoon.

Friday – (small swell combo)
Friday looks surfable…but the swell mix is fairly small…just a blend of smaller S-SW pulses (190-215) and some local WNW-NW windswell (288-300). Look for the average spots to hold around knee high with a few inconsistent waist high sets. The standout SW facing breaks and excellent combo spots will be waist high with a few inconsistent chest high sets. Winds/Weather: The weather models are showing a slight increase in eddy circulation on Friday…nothing horrible…but probably enough S winds for OC and SD that you might want to stick with spots that offer a little protection. WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots will spin up in the afternoon.


North Pacific
The North Pacific continues to be a pretty quiet place…the NE Pacific High continues to dominate half of the ocean, positioned in such a way that it blocks the mid-upper latitude portions of the storm track but still has enough of a gap to let the springy NW winds work down the California coast.

We can expect a mix of on and off NW windswell over the next week or so. Most of the energy will be coming through on the steep side (290-300) but there will be some times that the swell switches a little more WNW in direction, which would let more of Socal see some of the energy. Overall I am not expecting much surf from these windswells but there should be enough energy that the combo spots will get playful.

South Pacific
Playful SW swell (190-215) will stick around for the next couple of days…holding into Tuesday and then fading out through the second half of the week…dropping to mostly leftovers as we head into the weekend. Unfortunately there won’t be a ton of energy on tap for a while after this one fades…we are moving into the time-gap where the South Pacific took a little break in storm activity...and that means that we aren’t going to see any significant S-SW swells for about a week. So, by the weekend, we will just have a few inconsistent/background pulses of SW swell trickling in from weak systems that had been swirling around New Zealand…none of which will amount to more than knee-waist high at the average breaks.

Fortunately the forecast is already showing a new storm forming that will get us back into some healthy S-SW by the end of June. Check it out…

This low forms over the next 4 days…moving over New Zealand and pulling in a bunch of extra-tropical energy as it moves under the South Pacific Islands.

The extra-tropical energy helps to strengthen the storm…boosting wind speeds into the 35-40 knot range (possibly stronger)…

Eventually these winds set up some solid 30’+ seas and kick out a series of new swells towards Socal.

While this storm isn’t the strongest we have had this year it looks ok for creating surf. I like a couple of aspects in this system...the first being the storm’s track. It moves right along the SSW great circle line with a high-pressure wedging in behind the fetch, this helps to speed up winds and forces the storm to move our direction which gives these winds more time over an active sea-state (basically this means that the storm rides on top of the swell it has already made adding more energy). The second big thing that I like is that this isn’t the first part of the storm…there is another front that rushes through before this part of the storm forms…this first one develops the seas and gets all of the sloppy wind torn mess moving the right direction…allowing the second front to capitalize on its momentum. Finally I like the positioning of this storm…it is just far enough east that I think the core of the system is going to be in an unshadowed part of the swell window…granted a lot depends on the next few days…but this would help more size and consistency move our way, rather than getting absorbed by the South Pacific Islands.

The swell from this system will be arriving in a series of overlapping pulses that will start to show as early as the 25-26th…but will peak on the 27-29th of June. The first part of the swell will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high sets at the standout breaks…while the second pulse will be more chest-shoulder high for the average spots and head high, possibly head high+ at the standouts.


A couple of areas of disturbed weather are showing down in the tropics right now…they still have a fairly low probability of becoming full tropical storms…right in the 20-40% range of becoming a named system in the next 48 hours. It does however look like these thunderstorms will become more organized over the next week…possibly reaching TS or better by this upcoming weekend.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 17th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

No comments: