Thursday, June 24, 2010

Tropical Alert - Hurricane Celia goes Category 5

The National Hurricane Center estimates that Hurricane Celia reached Category 5 strength this afternoon. Sustained winds are around 140-knots with gusts reaching 170-knots.

What does this mean for her swell?

Well these storms are notoriously finicky…and even the ones that look like home runs can fail to produce swell. Remember Hurricane Norbert from a couple of seasons ago...

read the posts below the hurricane outlook and you can see how a storm (Hurricane Norbert) that was even better looking than Celia (not as intense, but with a much better track and a lot closer)…totally busted.

From a forecast guys know that I like to keep things conservative. So until I see some real satellite data, not just visible images, but actual measureable wind speeds I am going to keep wave heights on the lower side.

Still...because she is more intense, and I am seeing some good winds leading into the storm from the ITCZ, I will add some size to the forecast.

At this point it looks like the average S-SE facing spots will be more in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead sets when the swell peaks on Monday. Top SE spots will likely have sets going a couple of feet overhead and maybe a little larger on some of the bigger sets...I don't think I would add much more than that right now.

That being said…if I was made of money, and had a lot of spare time, I would probably try and get in position to see if I could get a lucky break and have this swell come in bigger. But at the same time I wouldn’t totally count on Celia producing. It is nice that we have an ok southern hemi SSW-SW swell to backstop the tropical stuff.

I will let you guys know if I get some solid data...there should be some better information tomorrow.


SC Fool said...

She ain't real big but she sho is perty.

Anonymous said...

Holy Moses! Bring it on!

Jeff Baldino said...

Thanks for all the hurricane updates.. Would be great if you could give hurricane swell predictions for ideal surf windows during the weekend. Like Sunday morning incoming tide..

Anonymous said...

Jeff, please get lost. Educate yourself.

That said, Sunday night around 8pm is going to go OFF>