Sunday, June 20, 2010

Tropical Alert – two tropical storms, one in our window, and the other heading our way

Over the last week or so the tropics have gone from 0-60…and it looks like it is just going to pour on the activity over the next few days.

We have two storms moving through the East Pacific Tropics this morning. The first system is Tropical Storm Blas…who formed up on June 17th. The first few forecast runs had TS Blas being a relatively weak system who would have dissipated back to a remnant low before hitting the Socal swell window…fortunately tropical systems like nothing better than to screw with the computer models…and so instead of weakening, Blas has intensified, shifted his track (to a better direction) and is now moving into our swell window. Blas will start to weaken again as he reaches cooler water but it looks like he will manage to send us some swell before he starts to fall apart.

At this point it looks like we will see a little SE swell from Blas…nothing outstanding…but there should be some rideable surf pushing into those little SE facing nooks and crannies that can only pick up the SE swell. We will see this new tropical energy moving in late on June 22nd…but with the peak of the swell hitting mostly on the 23rd. Wave heights won’t be that impressive, most spots will be the knee high range…but a few of the top SE facing spots, mostly through Orange County and a few other SE facing beaches will get a little punchier and a little bigger, tapping out in the chest high range…with a couple of bigger sets now and then.

The second system, TS Celia, is cranking along in the coastal waters just off of Central America. She is already a pretty strong Tropical Storm and she is intensifying rapidly, with winds hitting 55-65 knots at times in the key areas of the fetch . The hurricane model has her reaching hurricane strength early on Sunday and then holding that way for a couple of days. Unfortunately the storm is still a ways from the Southern California swell window…(well at least right now)…but the latest forecast are showing this storm moving further west, eventually reaching our swell window, in about 4 days…if this happens we would likely see another, possibly stronger, shot of tropical SE-SSE filling in around the 26-27th.

There is still a couple of days of swell formation so make sure to check back for the latest swell details as we get closer. Have a great father’s day!


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Great forecast! Really easy to follow. Love the pics. Can't wait for some beastly waist high (hopefully).