Thursday, June 10, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/10/2010

Forecast Overview
Lumpy WNW-NW windswell and smaller S-SW swell will push through on Friday and Saturday. Then cleaner conditions, better beach days, and a new S-SW swell will arrive on Sunday…expect a slow somewhat inconsistent start to this new Southern Hemi swell. Monday and Tuesday both look like pretty surfable days thanks to the mix of peaking S-SW swell, warm weather, and decent winds.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (mostly windswell with a touch of wind-funk)
Windswell switches more WNW-NW (285-300) and continues to hold onto some lumpy size on Friday while the S-SW swell mix drops…but doesn’t fade completely away thanks to another small shot of reinforcing S-SSW swell (180-210). Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the better NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks see some shoulder-head high+ sets. Shape will be a bit mixed up since the windswell is pretty short-period (6-10 seconds) and the Southern Hemi swell stays pretty small. Winds/Weather: The eddy is supposed to blow itself out on Friday…lightening up the morning winds into the 0-5 knot range, but keeping a southerly tint to it. Afternoon winds shift to the W-WNW and stay in the 10-15 knot range for most of the second half of the day.

Saturday – (leftovers with a new swell starting to show on the buoys)
Saturday will start off with a mix of fading WNW-NW windswell and some inconsistent S-SW swell from a couple of different overlapping S-SW swells. A new S-SW swell (190-210) moves in with some long-period energy (20+ seconds) throughout the day but won’t show much new surf on our beaches until the late afternoon...(really it shows better for Sunday/Monday). Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some waist high+ sets. Look for the standout NW-SW combo spots to see some chest high surf and some inconsistent shoulder sets. Winds/Weather: Still not totally clean on Saturday…but winds look better than they have. Look for some light onshore texture, generally below 5 knots, for most areas in the morning. W-NW winds build up into the 10-15 knot range for the afternoon. Overcast skies and still cool coastal temps will be on tap for the day.

Sunday – (Looking Surfable)
The new S-SW swell (180-210) will fill in more on Sunday while the WNW-NW windswell drops off to just trace background energy. The new S swell will be a bit inconsistent but we can expect some decent waves to start to filter into the well exposed spots. Look for the average S facing spots to be in the waist-chest high range while the standout SW spots, mostly through South OC and select parts of San Diego, will see some chest-shoulder high surf when the sets move in…along with some bigger sets as the new swell starts to peak later in the evening. Winds/Weather: Sunday will be a pretty nice beach day…the weather is finally supposed to break and start to warm up, with clearing skies earlier in the day and warmer beach temps all-around. Look for light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and then moderate W-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.

Monday – (Peaking S-SW swell and clean conditions)
The S-SW swell (180-210) will peak as it turns more southerly and gets more consistent. NW windswell will hold in the background but won’t make generate much in the way of rideable surf. Look for S-SW facing breaks to average in the chest-shoulder high range with a few bigger sets showing at the average breaks in OC and SD. Standout S-SW facing breaks, again mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego, will see shoulder-head high surf fairly consistently and some overhead sets that slip in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions and warm beach temps will build in on Monday. Look for light/variable to light offshore flow for the morning…and then W-NW winds around 10-13 knots for the afternoon.


North Pacific
Not much going on in the North Pacific…just a lump of WNW-NW windswell moving in here on Thursday that will peak into Friday and then fade over the weekend.

The long-range charts are showing a really strong high-pressure (1040mb) that settles over the NE Pacific over the next several days…this is one of the full-strength summer high-pressures that just clamp down on the NPAC storm track. Sure there is still a little bit of red just under Alaska, but it is almost exclusively sending swell toward Canada and Alaska proper…so while the bears and moose will be ripping we won’t see anything but some marginal windswell for the foreseeable future.

South Pacific
The SPAC still has some life to the storm track but it looks like the run of S-SW swell that we have enjoyed over the last few weeks is starting to peter out…at least for the middle/end of June…fortunately there is some new activity forming up in the long-range that should get us back in the water by the end of the month.

While the weekend will start with mostly leftover S-SW swell there will be a few background shots of reinforcing southern hemi to keep the SW facing spots from going totally flat. These will be followed by a new S-SW swell (190-210) that begins to fill in with long-period energy (mostly on the buoys) later on Saturday. This swell will strengthen on Sunday setting up a few shoulder-head high sets by the end of the day. Eventually this S-SW swell turns more southerly (180-205) and peaks on Monday and Tuesday with consistent chest-shoulder high+ surf for the best breaks and some overhead sets on the right tides. These waves will eventually fade out slowly on Wednesday (June 16) but manage to stay semi-surfable through the 17-18th.

Longer-range charts are showing another small pulse of S-SW energy moving in on the 19th that will help keep the surf from dropping too fast…but overall won’t add much size beyond the knee-chest high surf that the better S-SW facing spots will see. Way down the road we can expect a little bit of a gap after the 19th’s swell…but according to the charts a new storm is going to move into the SPAC in about 6 days…that would have some new, inconsistent, SW swell starting to show around the 26th…and then a stronger pulse of S-SW swell hitting around the 27-29th. This one is a ways out still…but it is always nice to see something in the charts.

No new tropical systems expected for the next couple of days. Overall conditions are pretty poor for tropical storm formation…and the building high-pressure settling over the NPAC is going to continue to drive shear-lines through the tropical region for the next don't expect a ton of improvement until the upper level winds improve.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, June 14th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

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