Monday, June 21, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/21/2010

Forecast Overview
- We will see a mix of small, but playful, NW/SW swells on Tuesday along with cleaner conditions.

- Wednesday will see the same mix hold through the day…and then tropical SE swell (from TS Blas) will start to arrive later in the afternoon.

- Thursday the surf mostly holds, but new SW energy and peaking Blas swell will help to improve consistency at the best S facing breaks.

- Friday our mix of swells will continue to increase as more SW energy arrives and helps to drive up the surf.

- By the weekend we can expect more SW swell, more tropical swell (from Hurricane Celia), and some more NW windswell...looks like overhead surf for the top S facing spots and by Sunday/Monday.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (playful leftovers)
Tuesday looks surfable…nothing special overall…but rideable with some semi-clean conditions in the morning. We will have a mix of backing off WNW-NW windswell, some inconsistent S-SW swell (190-210), and a trace of SE tropical swell from TS Blas that arrives late in the day. Most spots will average in the waist high range while the better S-SW facing breaks see some chest high sets. The standout combo spots that work well on the SW and NW energy will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Winds look decent for the morning…still a touch of eddy in the morning but winds should remain below 2-3 knots. Look for W-NW winds around 8-10 knots for the afternoon.

Wednesday – (new tropical SE swell)
New tropical SE swell (155-165) from Tropical Storm Blas will move in on Wednesday and mix with some inconsistent S-SW swell (190-220) from the Southern Hemisphere. Remnant NW windswell will stay pretty small. Average spots with just SW exposure will be in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. The standout S facing break that have SE exposure (and no shadowing issues) will be running more consistently around chest high with a few more shoulder high sets showing as the tropical swell mixes in and peaks. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions on tap for Wednesday. Light and variable winds for most areas early…even a touch offshore in a few areas near passes and canyons. Look for W winds around 10-15 knots moving back in by the afternoon.

Thursday – (a touch more juice)
The mix of S-SW swell (190-220) will come up a notch on Thursday while the tropical SSE-SE swell (160-175) and the local windswell hold sizes. Most spots will continue to see waist high surf with some chest high sets mixing in. The standout S-facing spots with decent SW and SE exposure will be in the chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets sneaking in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Thursday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning. W winds around 10-15 knots will push back in by the afternoon.

Friday – (On the rise)
Another new S-SW swell (190-210) mixes in with the holding SW energy, the slightly dropping tropical S-SE swell (from TS Blas still), and increasing local NW windswell. Most exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high sets at the spots that do better on the S swells. The standout S facing spots, particularly the SW exposed beaches and good combo spots, will have chest-shoulder high surf…with some inconsistent head high sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Friday…light and variable to light-offshore winds on tap for the morning. Onshore texture picks up by midday and we can expect another round of W-WNW winds in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.


North Pacific
Pretty quiet in the North Pacific right now. There is one storm moving through the upper latitudes that will send some swell to Northern California, but it is positioned poorly for Socal. On the good side it looks like the NW winds along our coast will be backing off by midweek (Wednesday June 23) which will finally start to ease off the eddy.

With the winds dropping off we can expect the WNW-NW windswell to back off as well…we will see some remnant leftovers through the end of the week…but it will likely return next week as those outer-water winds strengthen once again.

South Pacific
The SPAC continues to hum along…plenty of storm activity moving through the storm track, which is kicking out a bunch of overlapping S-SW swells. Most of these swells will be in the “playful” size range but there is a solid looking one that will arrive this upcoming weekend and hold waves into early next week.

So for the next few days we can expect some minor S-SW pulses (190-220) that will keep us in small, but rideable, waist-chest high surf through the end of the week. Things get a little bigger and more consistent on Friday as some new SW energy (210-220) moves in as a precursor to the larger SW swell that arrives over the weekend.

The bigger SW swell (200-220) will start to arrive on Saturday (June 26) starting off very SW’erly and a bit inconsistent, which reflects the way the storm moved off New Zealand and began to intensify. This swell will build through Saturday evening, eventually peaking on Sunday and Monday (June 27-28). As this swell peaks we can expect the average SW facing spots to see chest-shoulder high surf with some less consistent head high sets. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets. Look for this swell to start to back off on the 29th…but expect rideable waves from this one hanging on through the end of June.

Further out there is another strong storm forecast to move through our swell window. This one is just starting to pull together and the real wave-making is still about 4-5 days out. If this can hold together we should see another round of head high/overhead sized SSW swell heading our way for around the 4-5th of July.


The tropics are rocking…we have had 2 named storms develop over the weekend…TD Blas had reached “strong” tropical storm strength as he moved into our swell window on Sunday and though he has weakened back to a tropical depression we can expect some waves from him…those will be arriving over the next few days (so you can check the short-range for details on his tropical swell).

The second storm, Hurricane Celia, is tracking through the Baja Sur/Cabo SE swell window…with some of her waves starting to filter into those beaches already this afternoon (right on the tail of Blas tropical swell). She hasn’t quite reached Socal’s swell window, but forecasts have her tracking toward it, possibly moving into a wave-making position by late Wednesday/early Thursday. Forecasts also have her maintain her hurricane strength as she clears the Baja swell shadow, which means we should see a bigger tropical SE swell heading our way for the 26-27th. (remember there is a SW swell filling at the same time). At this point it looks like we should see some chest-head high surf at the better SE facing spots and some shoulder-head high+ surf at the standouts.

Further out…there is yet another bunch of thunderstorms a few hundred miles South of El Salvador…there is a good chance that these will get more organized over the next day or so and we could be looking at another named storm by later this week. Good times…

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 24th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster


Anonymous said...

you're awesome, Adam. thanks so much!

James said...

I like those daily bullet points in the overview. Thanks for all you do!

Anonymous said...

Ya good call on the bulliten points, epac and spac is rockin!

Anonymous said...

2pac rockin too