Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/24/2010

Forecast Overview
- New SW swell mixes with tropical energy from TS Blas on Friday…the surf stays small/playful for most areas but select spots will start to see some bigger surf.
- Saturday the new SW swell will continue to build while new tropical energy from Hurricane Celia starts to arrive at the extremely exposed SE spots.
- Sunday the meat of the new SW swell starts to arrive and Celia’s swell fills in, turning more southerly in the process. Wave heights will increase at most S facing spots with some larger waves at the top S-SE breaks.
- Monday and Tuesday the mix of SSW-SW swell and tropical energy from Hurricane Celia will peak…look for playful/decent sized surf for most of the exposed spots and overhead sets at the standout breaks.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (On the rise)
Another new S-SW swell (190-210) mixes in with the holding SW energy, the slightly dropping tropical S-SE swell (from TS Blas), and increasing local NW windswell. Most exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high sets at the spots that do better on the S swells. The standout S facing spots, particularly the SW exposed beaches and good combo spots, will have chest-shoulder high surf with a chance for a couple of plus sets on the morning tide push. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Friday…light and variable winds on tap for the morning with a couple of weak areas of onshore flow. Onshore texture picks up by midday and we can expect another round of W-WNW winds in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Saturday – (still building)
The pulse of SW swell (190-210) and steady NW windswell will hold on Saturday while the tropical SE (155-175) swell starts to get overlapping energy from Hurricane Celia. Most spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some bigger sets showing at the more exposed SE-SW facing spots. The standout S facing breaks, particularly those that can combo up the mix of swells, will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf through the morning…and then some head high sets that begin to arrive more frequently throughout the day. Winds/Weather: Winds look light in the morning…maybe a couple of pockets of onshore texture but pretty manageable for most areas. Look for W-WSW winds to increase throughout midday and eventually push onshore in the 12-15+ knot range for the afternoon.



Sunday – (more swell from all over the place)
Sunday’s surf will be on the rise from the get-go…we will have new bigger SW energy (190-215) filling in on the back of the previous Southern Hemi pulse. There will also be more tropical swell from Hurricane Celia…this will still be pretty SE’erly (155-165) but it will be on the rise throughout the day and slowly shifting more southerly. NW windswell will continue to hold on in the background…hopefully with enough energy to break up the other swells. At this point it looks like chest-shoulder high surf for most of the average exposed spots…with sets being a little more consistent at the SW/NW combo spots and the good SE facing breaks. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds in the morning…probably cleaner than the previous couple of days…so a chance for some light offshore in a few spots. Winds come onshore around midday and build out of the WNW at 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Monday – (still building)
The SSW-SW swell (190-205) holds on through Monday along with the NW windswell. The S-SE tropical swell (160-175) from Hurricane Celia will continue to build through Monday...eventually peaking later in the afternoon. Look for most spots to average around chest-shoulder high off the mix of swells. Standout S facing spots, and the excellent combo breaks, will see shoulder-head high surf with a few of the really well-exposed SE breaks seeing overhead sets at times throughout the day. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds in the morning with some light offshore flow in a few spots. Winds come onshore around midday and build out of the WNW at 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC is still pretty weaksauce right now…high-pressure continues to block out most of the NE Pacific, which kills any kind of long-period swell production.



There is one low-pressure that moves through the Gulf of Alaska…which doesn’t make any waves for us…but it does erode some of the high-pressure closer to our coast. It does this right as Hurricane Celia moves closer to the mid-latitudes, basically allowing Celia to track a bit more NW, which could be good for swell production (sort of a long-shot).



South Pacific
There will be plenty of Southern Hemi swell on tap for the next several days…and I am seeing another decent-sized pulse starting to brew up in the long-range…so basically the South Pacific continues to run like a well-oiled machine.

Right now we are seeing a little pulse of SW energy…from some scattered storm elements all spinning around New Zealand…these type of swells are notoriously inconsistent because of their swell-decay along the long travel distance, shadowing from the South Pacific Islands, and some blockage by the nearshore islands once they start to arrive in Socal. So this weak little shot of energy is everything that we can expect it to be. We can expect this SW’er to hold into Friday with some waist high waves and occasional chest high sets at the standouts.



The bigger SW swell (200-220) will start to arrive on Saturday (June 26) starting off very SW’erly and a bit inconsistent, which reflects the way the storm moved off New Zealand and began to intensify. This swell will build through Saturday evening, eventually peaking on Sunday and Monday (June 27-28). As this swell peaks we can expect the average SW facing spots to see chest-shoulder high surf with some less consistent head high sets. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets. Look for this swell to start to back off on the 29th…but expect rideable waves from this one hanging on through the end of June.



Further out there is another strong storm forecast to move through our swell window. It has been on the charts for the last few days and the forecasts have slowly improved as we have gotten closer to the storm actually pulling together. The latest forecasts are showing a pretty solid stretch of fetch (see how I did that…str-etch and f-etch…I am master of the English language) forming right in our S swell window…and not just your typical high-latitude storm, it will be an extra-tropical fueled nugget that manages to set up nearly 1200-1500 miles of 30+ knot wind with gusts hitting around 45-50 knots.



All of this wind is forecast to build up 30-35’ seas and push out a good S swell for Southern California (and a larger on for Central America/Mainland Mexico). This new S swell (180-200) would arrive as early as Saturday (July 3) and peak on the 4th of July…with energy sticking around for a few days afterwards. At this point it looks like this swell will be good for chest-shoulder high+ surf for the average S facing spots in California and some overhead sets at the standout breaks.



Things back down in the South Pacific after that storm…but I am still seeing some increasing storm activity under Australia and New Zealand that will likely push out into the South Pacific proper in the next week or so.

Tropics



We have two hurricanes in the East Pacific Tropics, one of which is in the Southern California swell window, and the other is just starting to reach the Baja Sur “SE swell” window.



For Socal Hurricane Celia is the most important at this point. She is a strong (115-knots), well-positioned storm (S-SSE of Socal…right in the 165-175 degree swell window), who is tracking well (WNW at 9-11 knots)…all of which are good things for generating swell. The initial energy from Celia will be arriving over this upcoming weekend...pushing in from the SE (155-165) starting on Saturday. It will be a bit slow and selective at first…but it will continue building and turning more southerly on Sunday, eventually peaking on Monday with plenty of energy showing into Tuesday. Once the swell turns more S (170-180) we can expect the average spots to see shoulder-high+ surf while the S-SE standouts, mostly through Orange County, see some overhead+ sets. This could come in stronger so we are going to want to keep an eye on the buoys and satellite obs as we move into the weekend.



The other system is Hurricane Darby, who has formed just off the coast of Southern Mainland Mexico…and is forecast to putt around in a little circle without making much movement toward the Socal swell window…in fact if it sticks with the current forecast Darby might not even reach the Cabo/Baja Sur swell window all that cleanly. As it is…the immediate nearby region of Southern Mainland Mex, can expect some consistent tropical S swell to mix with the Southern Hemi SW swell that will be hitting over the weekend.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, June 28th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/21/2010

Forecast Overview
- We will see a mix of small, but playful, NW/SW swells on Tuesday along with cleaner conditions.

- Wednesday will see the same mix hold through the day…and then tropical SE swell (from TS Blas) will start to arrive later in the afternoon.

- Thursday the surf mostly holds, but new SW energy and peaking Blas swell will help to improve consistency at the best S facing breaks.

- Friday our mix of swells will continue to increase as more SW energy arrives and helps to drive up the surf.

- By the weekend we can expect more SW swell, more tropical swell (from Hurricane Celia), and some more NW windswell...looks like overhead surf for the top S facing spots and by Sunday/Monday.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (playful leftovers)
Tuesday looks surfable…nothing special overall…but rideable with some semi-clean conditions in the morning. We will have a mix of backing off WNW-NW windswell, some inconsistent S-SW swell (190-210), and a trace of SE tropical swell from TS Blas that arrives late in the day. Most spots will average in the waist high range while the better S-SW facing breaks see some chest high sets. The standout combo spots that work well on the SW and NW energy will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Winds look decent for the morning…still a touch of eddy in the morning but winds should remain below 2-3 knots. Look for W-NW winds around 8-10 knots for the afternoon.



Wednesday – (new tropical SE swell)
New tropical SE swell (155-165) from Tropical Storm Blas will move in on Wednesday and mix with some inconsistent S-SW swell (190-220) from the Southern Hemisphere. Remnant NW windswell will stay pretty small. Average spots with just SW exposure will be in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. The standout S facing break that have SE exposure (and no shadowing issues) will be running more consistently around chest high with a few more shoulder high sets showing as the tropical swell mixes in and peaks. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions on tap for Wednesday. Light and variable winds for most areas early…even a touch offshore in a few areas near passes and canyons. Look for W winds around 10-15 knots moving back in by the afternoon.



Thursday – (a touch more juice)
The mix of S-SW swell (190-220) will come up a notch on Thursday while the tropical SSE-SE swell (160-175) and the local windswell hold sizes. Most spots will continue to see waist high surf with some chest high sets mixing in. The standout S-facing spots with decent SW and SE exposure will be in the chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets sneaking in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Thursday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning. W winds around 10-15 knots will push back in by the afternoon.



Friday – (On the rise)
Another new S-SW swell (190-210) mixes in with the holding SW energy, the slightly dropping tropical S-SE swell (from TS Blas still), and increasing local NW windswell. Most exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high sets at the spots that do better on the S swells. The standout S facing spots, particularly the SW exposed beaches and good combo spots, will have chest-shoulder high surf…with some inconsistent head high sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Friday…light and variable to light-offshore winds on tap for the morning. Onshore texture picks up by midday and we can expect another round of W-WNW winds in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Pretty quiet in the North Pacific right now. There is one storm moving through the upper latitudes that will send some swell to Northern California, but it is positioned poorly for Socal. On the good side it looks like the NW winds along our coast will be backing off by midweek (Wednesday June 23) which will finally start to ease off the eddy.



With the winds dropping off we can expect the WNW-NW windswell to back off as well…we will see some remnant leftovers through the end of the week…but it will likely return next week as those outer-water winds strengthen once again.

South Pacific
The SPAC continues to hum along…plenty of storm activity moving through the storm track, which is kicking out a bunch of overlapping S-SW swells. Most of these swells will be in the “playful” size range but there is a solid looking one that will arrive this upcoming weekend and hold waves into early next week.



So for the next few days we can expect some minor S-SW pulses (190-220) that will keep us in small, but rideable, waist-chest high surf through the end of the week. Things get a little bigger and more consistent on Friday as some new SW energy (210-220) moves in as a precursor to the larger SW swell that arrives over the weekend.



The bigger SW swell (200-220) will start to arrive on Saturday (June 26) starting off very SW’erly and a bit inconsistent, which reflects the way the storm moved off New Zealand and began to intensify. This swell will build through Saturday evening, eventually peaking on Sunday and Monday (June 27-28). As this swell peaks we can expect the average SW facing spots to see chest-shoulder high surf with some less consistent head high sets. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets. Look for this swell to start to back off on the 29th…but expect rideable waves from this one hanging on through the end of June.



Further out there is another strong storm forecast to move through our swell window. This one is just starting to pull together and the real wave-making is still about 4-5 days out. If this can hold together we should see another round of head high/overhead sized SSW swell heading our way for around the 4-5th of July.

Tropics



The tropics are rocking…we have had 2 named storms develop over the weekend…TD Blas had reached “strong” tropical storm strength as he moved into our swell window on Sunday and though he has weakened back to a tropical depression we can expect some waves from him…those will be arriving over the next few days (so you can check the short-range for details on his tropical swell).



The second storm, Hurricane Celia, is tracking through the Baja Sur/Cabo SE swell window…with some of her waves starting to filter into those beaches already this afternoon (right on the tail of Blas tropical swell). She hasn’t quite reached Socal’s swell window, but forecasts have her tracking toward it, possibly moving into a wave-making position by late Wednesday/early Thursday. Forecasts also have her maintain her hurricane strength as she clears the Baja swell shadow, which means we should see a bigger tropical SE swell heading our way for the 26-27th. (remember there is a SW swell filling at the same time). At this point it looks like we should see some chest-head high surf at the better SE facing spots and some shoulder-head high+ surf at the standouts.

Further out…there is yet another bunch of thunderstorms a few hundred miles South of El Salvador…there is a good chance that these will get more organized over the next day or so and we could be looking at another named storm by later this week. Good times…

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 24th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/17/2010

Forecast Overview
SW swell trails off through the end of the week while WNW-NW windswell pulses up a couple of notches thanks to increasing winds in the outer waters. The eddy looks like it will be junking things up for the next few days. The new South Pacific storm is still intensifying and it looks like it will help to break us out of the run of smaller waves later next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (eddy’s revenge)
Friday looks surfable…but the swell mix is fairly small…just a blend of smaller S-SW pulses (190-215) and some local WNW-NW windswell (288-300). Look for the average spots to hold around knee-waist high sets with the sets being a little inconsistent at times. The standout SW facing breaks and excellent combo spots will be waist- chest high along with a few inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: The eddy comes back on Friday and we can expect the southerly winds to return to Orange County and San Diego…cleaner conditions for South Los Angeles, and then NW winds for North LA and on up through Santa Barbara. W winds around 10-15 knots push in through the afternoon.

Saturday – (eddy strikes back)
Saturday will have a mix of increasing WNW-NW windswell (290-300) and fading SW leftovers (190-215) that are being backstopped by weak pulses from the Southern Hemisphere. Average spots will see knee-waist high waves. Standout windswell spots and the excellent combo breaks, will have some chest high+ sets still showing during the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The eddy strengthens more on Saturday and it looks like winds are going to be pretty craptacular. The eddy is supposed to be centered down below the border, which will cause the winds to push down out of the WNW-NW. Look for WNW-NW winds in the 8 knot range for the morning and then 13-17 knots out of the WNW for the afternoon.



Sunday – (Return of the eddy)
The mix of WNW-NW windswell (290-300) and SW leftovers (190-215) will continue to push in some sloppy surf on Sunday. Average windswell/combo breaks will hold around waist-chest high while the standout NW facing spots and best combo spots see some shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Still funky looking on Sunday…the winds that start up on Saturday don’t take much of a break overnight and we can expect the onshore flow to pick up really fast during the morning. Look for WNW-NW winds around 8-knots for the morning and then 12-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Monday – (crap…more freaking eddy)
We will see some smaller surf on Monday as the windswell turns more NW’erly (292-300+) and the weak SW swells continue to push in through the background. Average spots will be in the knee high range with some inconsistent waist high sets. Standout breaks see some waist-chest high waves…with maybe a rare bigger set at breaks down in Southern SD County. Winds/Weather: These stupid NW winds…don’t they know that it is almost July? Screw off already. The winds do back down a bit on Monday and we see the eddy reposition itself closer to Catalina, which means that San Diego/OC will have more southerly texture showing through their areas and Ventura/Santa Barbara will see NW winds…and North LA gets sort of swirly flow as the two portions of the wind mix together. WNW-NW winds continue to spin up in the afternoon look for 12-15 knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
No real changes in the North Pacific. For the next few days the storm track stays pretty quiet, well expect for the wind tunnel blowing through the outer coastal waters off California. These winds will push out some windswell and spin up the eddy as we move through the weekend. The windswell sizes aren’t that exciting…and to be honest I would rather sacrifice their extra energy for cleaner conditions.



Way out in the long-range there is a storm forecast to spin up into the Gulf of Alaska in about 5 days. By itself it doesn’t look like much of a wave maker but it will probably give the local windswell a boost as it sheds off energy into the winds along our outer waters. Probably strengthen the eddy too…or just push in onshore winds…man I need a beer, the groundhog-eddy is starting to get to me.

South Pacific
SW swell (190-215) will be slowly fading out through the second half of the week…dropping to mostly leftovers as we head into the weekend. Unfortunately there won’t be a ton of energy on tap for a while after this one fades…we are moving into the time-gap where the South Pacific took a little break in storm activity...and that means that we aren’t going to see any significant S-SW swells for about a week… So, by the weekend, we will just have a few inconsistent/background pulses of SW swell trickling in from weak systems that had been swirling around New Zealand…none of which will amount to more than knee-waist high at the average breaks.



Fortunately a series of new storms have been forming over the last couple of days…these will get us back into some decent S-SW by the end of June. Check it out…



This low is already developing…and it still has a couple of days of intensification and movement before it starts to track off to the east. The extra-tropical energy that I was watching in the forecast run managed to generate some stronger winds than the swell models initially anticipated.



The extra-tropical energy helped to strengthen the storm…boosting wind speeds into the 40-50 knot range. A lot of this energy was aimed towards Tahiti (and a good bunch to Hawaii too) but there was still some decent fetch for SoCal and Baja, as well as Mainland Mexico and Central America.



Seas have been building steadily under these strong winds and we are already seeing some 30-32’ seas near the core of the storm…chances are with these stronger winds that seas will still come up a bit over the next couple of days.



I am going to stick with my initial forecast in terms of timing and swell heights…I like that the winds are stronger and the track is still good…but I had already been accounting for the bump in energy when I was looking at these on Monday.

So while this storm isn’t the strongest thing ever…it still looks ok for creating surf. I like a couple of aspects in this system...the first being the storm’s track. It moves right along the SSW great circle line with a high-pressure wedging in behind the fetch, this helps to speed up winds and forces the storm to move our direction which gives these winds more time over an active sea-state (basically this means that the storm rides on top of the swell it has already made adding more energy). The second big thing that I like is that this isn’t the first part of the storm…there is another front that rushes through before this part of the storm forms…this first one develops the seas and gets all of the sloppy wind torn mess moving the right direction…allowing the second front to capitalize on its momentum. Finally I like the positioning of this storm…it is just far enough east that I think the core of the system is going to be in an unshadowed part of the swell window…granted a lot depends on the next few days…but this would help more size and consistency move our way, rather than getting absorbed by the South Pacific Islands.

The swell from this system will be arriving in a series of overlapping pulses that will start to show as early as the 25-26th…but will peak on the 27-29th of June. The first part of the swell will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high sets at the standout breaks…while the second pulse will be more chest-shoulder high for the average spots and head high, possibly head high+ at the standouts.

Tropics
The tropics are popping all of a sudden…we had two tropical depressions spin up on Wednesday and now one of them has reached Tropical Storm strength (35+ knots of wind).



TD-2e has already dissipated…weakening as it brushed up against Mainland Mexico. TD-3e is now Tropical Storm Blas…and will be sticking around for a few days. TS Blas will be tracking off to the west…without making much of a movement toward us.



Right now Blas is not looking like much of a wave maker…Mainland Mexico and Baja Sur may see an increase in surf but due to the storms lower wind speeds it doesn’t look like it will conjure up anything big before it tracks on out of the region. For Socal…Blas is still a ways outside our swell window and he is likely going to get sheared up pretty bad before he reaches it. At this point I think he is going to be a non-event for us…but we should still keep an eye on him.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 17th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/14/2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/14/2010

Forecast Overview
SW swell holds into Tuesday and then trails off through the end of the week. Small WNW-NW windswell will pulse on and off in the background. We can expect mostly weak leftovers by the next weekend. A new storm is starting to brew up in the long-range that will help to break us out of the run of smaller waves…cross your fingers it can pull together.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (holding SW swell and some bigger background NW windswell)
The SW swell (190-215) will continue to hold into Tuesday…though some of the longer-period energy with begin to drop out. The mix of local NW windswell will pulse up a bit and turn more westerly (288-300 vs 290-300+) so there might be a few more peaks showing at the combo spots. Most breaks will continue to hold around chest high with a few of the better combo breaks and SW exposed spots see some inconsistent chest high sets. Standout SW facing spots will be in the chest-head high range with a few inconsistent bigger waves sneaking in through the morning tide push. Winds/Weather: The eddy strengthens slightly on Tuesday...morning winds will put a little S-WSW texture on the more open beaches but overall speeds will be below 5-knots so the bump shouldn’t be too bad. W-WNW winds reach 10-15 knots in the afternoon.



Wednesday – (slow fade)
SW swell will fade slowly on Wednesday but will hold onto enough energy to keep our waves rideable/playful. NW windswell comes up another touch…not really big enough to do much on its own but it should be able to break up the Southern Hemi swell. Average SW facing spots and good combo breaks will see waist-chest high surf with a few rare combo peaks hitting shoulder high. The standout SW facing breaks and the excellent combo breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range…expect a few bigger waves showing at the standouts on the morning tide push. Winds/Weather: Still overcast…still sort of eddy…but overall winds look pretty light. Expect 2-3 knot light/S-variable winds on tap for the morning. Winds shift W-WSW and build into the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.



Thursday – (Mostly leftovers)
The SW swell (185-210) will continue to taper off on Thursday while the NW windswell fades and we see a few scattered pulses of S-SW energy filtering through the background. Overall surf will be in the knee-waist high range at the average spots with a few rare chest high peaks at the good combo breaks. The Standout SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range along some inconsistent shoulder high waves sneaking in on the tide push. Winds/Weather: Conditions clean up on Thursday...the eddy circulation will take a little break in the morning, setting up light and variable winds for most areas and even a few pockets of light-offshore flow near the passes and canyons up around Santa Barbara, Ventura, and North LA. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots to push onshore by the afternoon.



Friday – (small swell combo)
Friday looks surfable…but the swell mix is fairly small…just a blend of smaller S-SW pulses (190-215) and some local WNW-NW windswell (288-300). Look for the average spots to hold around knee high with a few inconsistent waist high sets. The standout SW facing breaks and excellent combo spots will be waist high with a few inconsistent chest high sets. Winds/Weather: The weather models are showing a slight increase in eddy circulation on Friday…nothing horrible…but probably enough S winds for OC and SD that you might want to stick with spots that offer a little protection. WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots will spin up in the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The North Pacific continues to be a pretty quiet place…the NE Pacific High continues to dominate half of the ocean, positioned in such a way that it blocks the mid-upper latitude portions of the storm track but still has enough of a gap to let the springy NW winds work down the California coast.



We can expect a mix of on and off NW windswell over the next week or so. Most of the energy will be coming through on the steep side (290-300) but there will be some times that the swell switches a little more WNW in direction, which would let more of Socal see some of the energy. Overall I am not expecting much surf from these windswells but there should be enough energy that the combo spots will get playful.

South Pacific
Playful SW swell (190-215) will stick around for the next couple of days…holding into Tuesday and then fading out through the second half of the week…dropping to mostly leftovers as we head into the weekend. Unfortunately there won’t be a ton of energy on tap for a while after this one fades…we are moving into the time-gap where the South Pacific took a little break in storm activity...and that means that we aren’t going to see any significant S-SW swells for about a week. So, by the weekend, we will just have a few inconsistent/background pulses of SW swell trickling in from weak systems that had been swirling around New Zealand…none of which will amount to more than knee-waist high at the average breaks.



Fortunately the forecast is already showing a new storm forming that will get us back into some healthy S-SW by the end of June. Check it out…



This low forms over the next 4 days…moving over New Zealand and pulling in a bunch of extra-tropical energy as it moves under the South Pacific Islands.



The extra-tropical energy helps to strengthen the storm…boosting wind speeds into the 35-40 knot range (possibly stronger)…



Eventually these winds set up some solid 30’+ seas and kick out a series of new swells towards Socal.



While this storm isn’t the strongest we have had this year it looks ok for creating surf. I like a couple of aspects in this system...the first being the storm’s track. It moves right along the SSW great circle line with a high-pressure wedging in behind the fetch, this helps to speed up winds and forces the storm to move our direction which gives these winds more time over an active sea-state (basically this means that the storm rides on top of the swell it has already made adding more energy). The second big thing that I like is that this isn’t the first part of the storm…there is another front that rushes through before this part of the storm forms…this first one develops the seas and gets all of the sloppy wind torn mess moving the right direction…allowing the second front to capitalize on its momentum. Finally I like the positioning of this storm…it is just far enough east that I think the core of the system is going to be in an unshadowed part of the swell window…granted a lot depends on the next few days…but this would help more size and consistency move our way, rather than getting absorbed by the South Pacific Islands.

The swell from this system will be arriving in a series of overlapping pulses that will start to show as early as the 25-26th…but will peak on the 27-29th of June. The first part of the swell will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high sets at the standout breaks…while the second pulse will be more chest-shoulder high for the average spots and head high, possibly head high+ at the standouts.

Tropics



A couple of areas of disturbed weather are showing down in the tropics right now…they still have a fairly low probability of becoming full tropical storms…right in the 20-40% range of becoming a named system in the next 48 hours. It does however look like these thunderstorms will become more organized over the next week…possibly reaching TS or better by this upcoming weekend.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 17th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/