Monday’s Surf – Plenty of swell and a freaking low tide

Monday looks surfable…we will continue to have plenty of swell in the water… but we will need to keep an eye on conditions as we try and power through a really low morning tide and some leftover eddy texture.

Swellwise we will have a mix of peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220), peaking S-SE tropical swell (170-180) from hurricane Celia, and some background NW windswell. It looks like it will be biggest through the morning, but with plenty of size and consistency showing into the afternoon, particularly at the unshadowed SW facing spots.



Most average S-SW facing breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets showing at the better unshadowed breaks. The top spots, the best S-SSE facing beaches and the best S-SW combo spots…mostly through Orange County, will have surf in the shoulder-head high+ range with sets going a couple of feet overhead…maybe even a tad bigger on the best tides. Expect spots with good exposure to the tropical S-SE swell direction to be more consistent than other breaks.

Winds look ok…not great…but mostly light in the morning. The wind models are calling for light/variable winds for the morning, but they are giving it some slightly eddyish spin, which may add some texture to the more open/wind sensitive areas, especially through San Diego and Orange County. Look for W winds to pick up through the afternoon eventually hitting 10-15 knots later in the day.



Like I said, there will be plenty of swell in the water on Monday, probably a bit too much for most of the beach breaks…so it looks like the points and reefs are going to have the best shape. Oh it won’t be unsurfable at the beaches, but expect a lot of closeouts, plenty of current to paddle against, and only a handful of makeable corners. There will be a little bit of windswell in the water so if you are looking for smaller surf sizes you might want to check out the breaks that are more combo-y with SW swell and NW windswells. Expect the cleanest conditions in the morning but the negative low-tide is going to roll through right around sunup so you will want to keep that in mind when you pick your spot.

Here are the tides…

06/28/2010 Monday
05:34AM LDT -0.6 L (sucky!)
12:01PM LDT 3.7 H
04:46PM LDT 2.3 L
10:43PM LDT 5.5 H

Waves for the Weekend – SW swell and some tropical SE-S swell from Hurricane Celia

Overall I would call this weekend rideable…but it will be hampered from reaching its true potential by local winds. (Stupid Eddy…I bet it is controlled by the dolphins.)

There will be surf this weekend…we have new SW swell (190-220) starting to fill in on Saturday, eventually peaking on Sunday and holding into Monday. On Saturday we will also have a mix of background tropical energy, some SW leftovers from TS Blas and some new SE forerunners form Hurricane Celia, but neither will bring in very much size. Look for NW windswell to hold steady in the background.



We can expect average spots to see surf in the chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets pulsing in at the better SW facing breaks. The top S-SW spots and the excellent combo breaks will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high sets showing by the end of the day. Maybe even a few plus sets at times at the best sets.

Winds look light in the morning…with a little W flow around Santa Barbara and Ventura, variable winds throughout LA, and light Southerly winds for Orange County and San Diego. Most areas will see winds below 10-knots, but expect some texture at the more open breaks.



Sunday the SW swell (190-220) will start to peak, while new tropical SSE-SE swell moves in from Celia and the NW windswell continues to stick around in the background.



Average spots with S-SW exposure will see surf in the chest-head high range…a little inconsistent on the sets if the break is only exposed to the SW energy. The standout S facing spots, particularly the breaks that can pull in both SW and SE swell like a few of those in Orange County, will have surf in the shoulder-overhead range…with some larger sets, likely a couple of feet overhead, showing by late in the day. (the peak of the tropical swell will likely arrive on Monday).

Winds look a bit lighter on Sunday…the eddy flow will still be out there, but in general it won’t be as intense. Look for light onshore texture from the W in SB and Ventura…with some more variable winds in LA. OC and SD will see the light S winds again…but winds look slower, more in the 3-5 knot range, and they get a later start too…coming in right around dawn, which should suppress the wind bump a little more.



I think there will be some fun this weekend…even some occasionally healthy sized surf as the two SW and SE swells peak. I am still being a bit conservative on the Hurricane Celia swell…especially now that she has started to back off her intensity (she is down to a Cat-4 and is still weakening)…but there is always a chance that she could have out-produced her estimated wind speeds…so I would keep an eye on the buoys as we head into Sunday and Monday.

I think the points and reefs are going to have the best shape…with these SE-SW swells in the water it is bound to get pretty lined up at the beach breaks (the SE facing beach breaks will be particularly walled up and will see a lot of side-shore and rip currents once the tropical swell fills in). Like I said above…the buoys and live swell models (like the CDIP) are going to be your friends this weekend…make sure to use them to home in on the exposed areas, (or avoid them if you want smaller surf).

Here are the tides…happy hunting this weekend…stay safe!

06/26/2010 Saturday
04:26AM LDT -1.0 L
10:53AM LDT 3.6 H
03:28PM LDT 2.2 L
09:33PM LDT 6.0 H

06/27/2010 Sunday
05:01AM LDT -0.9 L
11:27AM LDT 3.6 H
04:07PM LDT 2.2 L
10:08PM LDT 5.8 H

Tropical Alert - Hurricane Celia goes Category 5

The National Hurricane Center estimates that Hurricane Celia reached Category 5 strength this afternoon. Sustained winds are around 140-knots with gusts reaching 170-knots.



What does this mean for her swell?

Well these storms are notoriously finicky…and even the ones that look like home runs can fail to produce swell. Remember Hurricane Norbert from a couple of seasons ago...

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/search?q=norbert

read the posts below the hurricane outlook and you can see how a storm (Hurricane Norbert) that was even better looking than Celia (not as intense, but with a much better track and a lot closer)…totally busted.

From a forecast perspective...you guys know that I like to keep things conservative. So until I see some real satellite data, not just visible images, but actual measureable wind speeds I am going to keep wave heights on the lower side.

Still...because she is more intense, and I am seeing some good winds leading into the storm from the ITCZ, I will add some size to the forecast.

At this point it looks like the average S-SE facing spots will be more in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead sets when the swell peaks on Monday. Top SE spots will likely have sets going a couple of feet overhead and maybe a little larger on some of the bigger sets...I don't think I would add much more than that right now.



That being said…if I was made of money, and had a lot of spare time, I would probably try and get in position to see if I could get a lucky break and have this swell come in bigger. But at the same time I wouldn’t totally count on Celia producing. It is nice that we have an ok southern hemi SSW-SW swell to backstop the tropical stuff.

I will let you guys know if I get some solid data...there should be some better information tomorrow.

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/24/2010

Forecast Overview
- New SW swell mixes with tropical energy from TS Blas on Friday…the surf stays small/playful for most areas but select spots will start to see some bigger surf.
- Saturday the new SW swell will continue to build while new tropical energy from Hurricane Celia starts to arrive at the extremely exposed SE spots.
- Sunday the meat of the new SW swell starts to arrive and Celia’s swell fills in, turning more southerly in the process. Wave heights will increase at most S facing spots with some larger waves at the top S-SE breaks.
- Monday and Tuesday the mix of SSW-SW swell and tropical energy from Hurricane Celia will peak…look for playful/decent sized surf for most of the exposed spots and overhead sets at the standout breaks.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (On the rise)
Another new S-SW swell (190-210) mixes in with the holding SW energy, the slightly dropping tropical S-SE swell (from TS Blas), and increasing local NW windswell. Most exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high sets at the spots that do better on the S swells. The standout S facing spots, particularly the SW exposed beaches and good combo spots, will have chest-shoulder high surf with a chance for a couple of plus sets on the morning tide push. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Friday…light and variable winds on tap for the morning with a couple of weak areas of onshore flow. Onshore texture picks up by midday and we can expect another round of W-WNW winds in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Saturday – (still building)
The pulse of SW swell (190-210) and steady NW windswell will hold on Saturday while the tropical SE (155-175) swell starts to get overlapping energy from Hurricane Celia. Most spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some bigger sets showing at the more exposed SE-SW facing spots. The standout S facing breaks, particularly those that can combo up the mix of swells, will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf through the morning…and then some head high sets that begin to arrive more frequently throughout the day. Winds/Weather: Winds look light in the morning…maybe a couple of pockets of onshore texture but pretty manageable for most areas. Look for W-WSW winds to increase throughout midday and eventually push onshore in the 12-15+ knot range for the afternoon.



Sunday – (more swell from all over the place)
Sunday’s surf will be on the rise from the get-go…we will have new bigger SW energy (190-215) filling in on the back of the previous Southern Hemi pulse. There will also be more tropical swell from Hurricane Celia…this will still be pretty SE’erly (155-165) but it will be on the rise throughout the day and slowly shifting more southerly. NW windswell will continue to hold on in the background…hopefully with enough energy to break up the other swells. At this point it looks like chest-shoulder high surf for most of the average exposed spots…with sets being a little more consistent at the SW/NW combo spots and the good SE facing breaks. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds in the morning…probably cleaner than the previous couple of days…so a chance for some light offshore in a few spots. Winds come onshore around midday and build out of the WNW at 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Monday – (still building)
The SSW-SW swell (190-205) holds on through Monday along with the NW windswell. The S-SE tropical swell (160-175) from Hurricane Celia will continue to build through Monday...eventually peaking later in the afternoon. Look for most spots to average around chest-shoulder high off the mix of swells. Standout S facing spots, and the excellent combo breaks, will see shoulder-head high surf with a few of the really well-exposed SE breaks seeing overhead sets at times throughout the day. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds in the morning with some light offshore flow in a few spots. Winds come onshore around midday and build out of the WNW at 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC is still pretty weaksauce right now…high-pressure continues to block out most of the NE Pacific, which kills any kind of long-period swell production.



There is one low-pressure that moves through the Gulf of Alaska…which doesn’t make any waves for us…but it does erode some of the high-pressure closer to our coast. It does this right as Hurricane Celia moves closer to the mid-latitudes, basically allowing Celia to track a bit more NW, which could be good for swell production (sort of a long-shot).



South Pacific
There will be plenty of Southern Hemi swell on tap for the next several days…and I am seeing another decent-sized pulse starting to brew up in the long-range…so basically the South Pacific continues to run like a well-oiled machine.

Right now we are seeing a little pulse of SW energy…from some scattered storm elements all spinning around New Zealand…these type of swells are notoriously inconsistent because of their swell-decay along the long travel distance, shadowing from the South Pacific Islands, and some blockage by the nearshore islands once they start to arrive in Socal. So this weak little shot of energy is everything that we can expect it to be. We can expect this SW’er to hold into Friday with some waist high waves and occasional chest high sets at the standouts.



The bigger SW swell (200-220) will start to arrive on Saturday (June 26) starting off very SW’erly and a bit inconsistent, which reflects the way the storm moved off New Zealand and began to intensify. This swell will build through Saturday evening, eventually peaking on Sunday and Monday (June 27-28). As this swell peaks we can expect the average SW facing spots to see chest-shoulder high surf with some less consistent head high sets. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets. Look for this swell to start to back off on the 29th…but expect rideable waves from this one hanging on through the end of June.



Further out there is another strong storm forecast to move through our swell window. It has been on the charts for the last few days and the forecasts have slowly improved as we have gotten closer to the storm actually pulling together. The latest forecasts are showing a pretty solid stretch of fetch (see how I did that…str-etch and f-etch…I am master of the English language) forming right in our S swell window…and not just your typical high-latitude storm, it will be an extra-tropical fueled nugget that manages to set up nearly 1200-1500 miles of 30+ knot wind with gusts hitting around 45-50 knots.



All of this wind is forecast to build up 30-35’ seas and push out a good S swell for Southern California (and a larger on for Central America/Mainland Mexico). This new S swell (180-200) would arrive as early as Saturday (July 3) and peak on the 4th of July…with energy sticking around for a few days afterwards. At this point it looks like this swell will be good for chest-shoulder high+ surf for the average S facing spots in California and some overhead sets at the standout breaks.



Things back down in the South Pacific after that storm…but I am still seeing some increasing storm activity under Australia and New Zealand that will likely push out into the South Pacific proper in the next week or so.

Tropics



We have two hurricanes in the East Pacific Tropics, one of which is in the Southern California swell window, and the other is just starting to reach the Baja Sur “SE swell” window.



For Socal Hurricane Celia is the most important at this point. She is a strong (115-knots), well-positioned storm (S-SSE of Socal…right in the 165-175 degree swell window), who is tracking well (WNW at 9-11 knots)…all of which are good things for generating swell. The initial energy from Celia will be arriving over this upcoming weekend...pushing in from the SE (155-165) starting on Saturday. It will be a bit slow and selective at first…but it will continue building and turning more southerly on Sunday, eventually peaking on Monday with plenty of energy showing into Tuesday. Once the swell turns more S (170-180) we can expect the average spots to see shoulder-high+ surf while the S-SE standouts, mostly through Orange County, see some overhead+ sets. This could come in stronger so we are going to want to keep an eye on the buoys and satellite obs as we move into the weekend.



The other system is Hurricane Darby, who has formed just off the coast of Southern Mainland Mexico…and is forecast to putt around in a little circle without making much movement toward the Socal swell window…in fact if it sticks with the current forecast Darby might not even reach the Cabo/Baja Sur swell window all that cleanly. As it is…the immediate nearby region of Southern Mainland Mex, can expect some consistent tropical S swell to mix with the Southern Hemi SW swell that will be hitting over the weekend.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, June 28th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Tropical Alert – Hurricane Celia moving into the Socal swell window

Hurricane Celia has finally tracked far enough west to to reach the Southern California swell window…well at least the extreme SE portion of it…and in the process she has managed to intensify and become more organized.



Celia’s current wind speeds are holding around 100-knots with gusts hitting 120-knots at times, which classifies her as a Category-3 (Major) Hurricane…and is sort of the tropic’s way of saying…”bite me” to La Nina. (La Nina hasn’t actually formed yet…we are still in El-Nino/Neutral…La Nina is supposed to set in over the next 3 months…but Celia can still give “cooling trend” the finger).

Right now Celia’s storm-track is going to continue to move her through warm water for the next couple of days, possibly letting her reach Category-4 strength sometime on Thursday…and then finally starting to weaken on Friday. Her current movement path is WNW (280) at about 8-10 knots which isn’t bad considering that the storm has estimated tropical storm strength winds stretching for almost 200 miles in the NE and SE quadrants, which is where any swell that she sends our way will develop.



From a surf standpoint…Celia is looking better and better…her strong wind speeds, decent diameter, and favorable movement path/speed, are all combining nicely and if she holds together we will see some pretty good swell from her.

Finding swell from her, on the other hand, may be a little tricky at first. Since the core of the storm is just starting to move into our swell window today it means that conceivably there will be some new SE swell (155-160) arriving later on Friday, June 25th…but counting on that swell will be a little dicey. Due to its extreme SE angle only a handful of areas will see that energy…and then you have to add in the fact that tropical swells are pretty fluky in general…all of which makes committing to any real jump in tropical surf size on Friday pretty hard. The way I would look at it is like this…sure there is a shot at some new tropical swell Friday evening, but I probably won’t waste much time checking it. If I happen to be close by a SE exposed spot and the winds look decent Friday afternoon…then it might justify a quick look but I would keep my expectations low.

The meat of Celia’s swell is likely to arrive over the weekend…peaking late on Saturday through Sunday, and possibly into Monday (if the storm holds together). By then the swell direction will be more Southerly (170-180), which means more spots can pick it up…and more of the storm’s outer winds will have moved into our window (a couple of days before) allowing more fetch for swell production. Sizewise it is still a bit hard to gauge…but it is looking like consistent shoulder-head high surf for most S facing spots and then sets going overhead, to possibly a couple of feet overhead at the standout S-SE breaks.

What is nice about this storm in particular is that the tropical swell is going to be mixing with some decent sized SW swell, which while it isn’t coming in from the same swell direction, should offer up enough to surf to keep us from getting burned by Celia if the hurricane fails to produce somehow (which tropical storms, even good looking ones, often do). With the SW’er in the water you will have a good chance of getting fun waves this weekend, particularly on Sunday, and if Celia comes through then there could be some legit size at the S facing spots as well.

ONE MORE THING…

TS Darby formed up last night…and while he isn’t in our swell window it looks like he will reach hurricane status over the next 12-18 hours while he moves into the SE swell window for Baja Sur. If you are heading to Baja, or Central Mainland Mexico…you are definitely going to want to keep an eye on him.



...so much for a quiet tropical season...

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/21/2010

Forecast Overview
- We will see a mix of small, but playful, NW/SW swells on Tuesday along with cleaner conditions.

- Wednesday will see the same mix hold through the day…and then tropical SE swell (from TS Blas) will start to arrive later in the afternoon.

- Thursday the surf mostly holds, but new SW energy and peaking Blas swell will help to improve consistency at the best S facing breaks.

- Friday our mix of swells will continue to increase as more SW energy arrives and helps to drive up the surf.

- By the weekend we can expect more SW swell, more tropical swell (from Hurricane Celia), and some more NW windswell...looks like overhead surf for the top S facing spots and by Sunday/Monday.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (playful leftovers)
Tuesday looks surfable…nothing special overall…but rideable with some semi-clean conditions in the morning. We will have a mix of backing off WNW-NW windswell, some inconsistent S-SW swell (190-210), and a trace of SE tropical swell from TS Blas that arrives late in the day. Most spots will average in the waist high range while the better S-SW facing breaks see some chest high sets. The standout combo spots that work well on the SW and NW energy will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Winds look decent for the morning…still a touch of eddy in the morning but winds should remain below 2-3 knots. Look for W-NW winds around 8-10 knots for the afternoon.



Wednesday – (new tropical SE swell)
New tropical SE swell (155-165) from Tropical Storm Blas will move in on Wednesday and mix with some inconsistent S-SW swell (190-220) from the Southern Hemisphere. Remnant NW windswell will stay pretty small. Average spots with just SW exposure will be in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. The standout S facing break that have SE exposure (and no shadowing issues) will be running more consistently around chest high with a few more shoulder high sets showing as the tropical swell mixes in and peaks. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions on tap for Wednesday. Light and variable winds for most areas early…even a touch offshore in a few areas near passes and canyons. Look for W winds around 10-15 knots moving back in by the afternoon.



Thursday – (a touch more juice)
The mix of S-SW swell (190-220) will come up a notch on Thursday while the tropical SSE-SE swell (160-175) and the local windswell hold sizes. Most spots will continue to see waist high surf with some chest high sets mixing in. The standout S-facing spots with decent SW and SE exposure will be in the chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets sneaking in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Thursday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning. W winds around 10-15 knots will push back in by the afternoon.



Friday – (On the rise)
Another new S-SW swell (190-210) mixes in with the holding SW energy, the slightly dropping tropical S-SE swell (from TS Blas still), and increasing local NW windswell. Most exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high sets at the spots that do better on the S swells. The standout S facing spots, particularly the SW exposed beaches and good combo spots, will have chest-shoulder high surf…with some inconsistent head high sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Friday…light and variable to light-offshore winds on tap for the morning. Onshore texture picks up by midday and we can expect another round of W-WNW winds in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Pretty quiet in the North Pacific right now. There is one storm moving through the upper latitudes that will send some swell to Northern California, but it is positioned poorly for Socal. On the good side it looks like the NW winds along our coast will be backing off by midweek (Wednesday June 23) which will finally start to ease off the eddy.



With the winds dropping off we can expect the WNW-NW windswell to back off as well…we will see some remnant leftovers through the end of the week…but it will likely return next week as those outer-water winds strengthen once again.

South Pacific
The SPAC continues to hum along…plenty of storm activity moving through the storm track, which is kicking out a bunch of overlapping S-SW swells. Most of these swells will be in the “playful” size range but there is a solid looking one that will arrive this upcoming weekend and hold waves into early next week.



So for the next few days we can expect some minor S-SW pulses (190-220) that will keep us in small, but rideable, waist-chest high surf through the end of the week. Things get a little bigger and more consistent on Friday as some new SW energy (210-220) moves in as a precursor to the larger SW swell that arrives over the weekend.



The bigger SW swell (200-220) will start to arrive on Saturday (June 26) starting off very SW’erly and a bit inconsistent, which reflects the way the storm moved off New Zealand and began to intensify. This swell will build through Saturday evening, eventually peaking on Sunday and Monday (June 27-28). As this swell peaks we can expect the average SW facing spots to see chest-shoulder high surf with some less consistent head high sets. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets. Look for this swell to start to back off on the 29th…but expect rideable waves from this one hanging on through the end of June.



Further out there is another strong storm forecast to move through our swell window. This one is just starting to pull together and the real wave-making is still about 4-5 days out. If this can hold together we should see another round of head high/overhead sized SSW swell heading our way for around the 4-5th of July.

Tropics



The tropics are rocking…we have had 2 named storms develop over the weekend…TD Blas had reached “strong” tropical storm strength as he moved into our swell window on Sunday and though he has weakened back to a tropical depression we can expect some waves from him…those will be arriving over the next few days (so you can check the short-range for details on his tropical swell).



The second storm, Hurricane Celia, is tracking through the Baja Sur/Cabo SE swell window…with some of her waves starting to filter into those beaches already this afternoon (right on the tail of Blas tropical swell). She hasn’t quite reached Socal’s swell window, but forecasts have her tracking toward it, possibly moving into a wave-making position by late Wednesday/early Thursday. Forecasts also have her maintain her hurricane strength as she clears the Baja swell shadow, which means we should see a bigger tropical SE swell heading our way for the 26-27th. (remember there is a SW swell filling at the same time). At this point it looks like we should see some chest-head high surf at the better SE facing spots and some shoulder-head high+ surf at the standouts.

Further out…there is yet another bunch of thunderstorms a few hundred miles South of El Salvador…there is a good chance that these will get more organized over the next day or so and we could be looking at another named storm by later this week. Good times…

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 24th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Tropical Alert – First Hurricane of the Season (and she is a potential wave-maker for Socal)

Just wanted to drop another heads up on our tropical activity…as of this afternoon the East Pacific Tropics has its first hurricane of the 2010 season.



Tropical Storm Celia has intensified into Hurricane Celia…and if that wasn’t enough…her forecasted track, and forecasted maximum wind speeds have both become a lot better looking.



The latest NHC forecast is calling for Hurricane Celia to intensify into a Major Hurricane (Major Hurricane means that sustained winds will be greater than 93-knots) by Tuesday…with forecasted winds hitting 100-knots and gusts reaching 120-knots. That slow WNW curving track is going to push Celia into the Socal swell window by Thursday (June 24). The slight tack toward Socal, as well as the slow movement speed (around 6-8 knots)…will let this storm spend a lot of time over the same stretch of water, the more time it can spend in the same place, or moving toward us, the more energy that it can load up into the swell.

You can see on the forecast map that the storm is a ways south, and still a ways from the Socal swell window…it will take about 3-4 days for the storm to push into a position where it can send us swell (though it will be sending Baja Sur swell all of this week). Once the storm is in our window it still takes a couple of days for the energy to reach us…so Socal potentially could see some new SE swell as early as June 26th…but will probably see the swell arrive mostly on the 27th and then hang on for a couple of days afterwards.

It is still a bit early for surf heights from this one…but if it can live up to this forecast I would expect some overhead sizes at the standout SE facing spots as this swell peaks. I am sure I will be updating this as Celia continues to develop.