Monday’s Surf – Plenty of swell and a freaking low tide

Monday looks surfable…we will continue to have plenty of swell in the water… but we will need to keep an eye on conditions as we try and power through a really low morning tide and some leftover eddy texture.

Swellwise we will have a mix of peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220), peaking S-SE tropical swell (170-180) from hurricane Celia, and some background NW windswell. It looks like it will be biggest through the morning, but with plenty of size and consistency showing into the afternoon, particularly at the unshadowed SW facing spots.



Most average S-SW facing breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets showing at the better unshadowed breaks. The top spots, the best S-SSE facing beaches and the best S-SW combo spots…mostly through Orange County, will have surf in the shoulder-head high+ range with sets going a couple of feet overhead…maybe even a tad bigger on the best tides. Expect spots with good exposure to the tropical S-SE swell direction to be more consistent than other breaks.

Winds look ok…not great…but mostly light in the morning. The wind models are calling for light/variable winds for the morning, but they are giving it some slightly eddyish spin, which may add some texture to the more open/wind sensitive areas, especially through San Diego and Orange County. Look for W winds to pick up through the afternoon eventually hitting 10-15 knots later in the day.



Like I said, there will be plenty of swell in the water on Monday, probably a bit too much for most of the beach breaks…so it looks like the points and reefs are going to have the best shape. Oh it won’t be unsurfable at the beaches, but expect a lot of closeouts, plenty of current to paddle against, and only a handful of makeable corners. There will be a little bit of windswell in the water so if you are looking for smaller surf sizes you might want to check out the breaks that are more combo-y with SW swell and NW windswells. Expect the cleanest conditions in the morning but the negative low-tide is going to roll through right around sunup so you will want to keep that in mind when you pick your spot.

Here are the tides…

06/28/2010 Monday
05:34AM LDT -0.6 L (sucky!)
12:01PM LDT 3.7 H
04:46PM LDT 2.3 L
10:43PM LDT 5.5 H

Waves for Wednesday – Still some surf but with a touch of texture

Wednesday will be another surf day but it may not be as clean as Tuesday.

Overall surf heights will drop a touch more on Wednesday as the majority of our S-SSW swell (180-200) begins to fade out…fortunately we also have a new pulse of SSW swell (190-210), and some background WNW windswell, that will keep our surf from dropping too far.



I am not sure if you guys have been checking the buoys over the last day or so…but this S swell has had some legs. Check out the Dana Point Buoy…



Usually you don’t get a southern hemi swell to push in energy in the 12-second swell-period range…most times those shorter-periods will decay out…but storm that set up this one really managed to follow-through behind the initial front…anyways this was just trivia…maybe we should send the southern hemi a nice note or something.

Our surf for tomorrow will continue to hold in the waist-chest-high range for most of the average spots…even seeing a little more consistency at the average combo spots as the local windswell pulses up a touch. The standout S facing breaks, mostly in Orange County, will be in the chest-shoulder high range pretty consistently…but with a few bigger sets sneaking in through the morning low tide again.

Winds forecasts are sort of showing a little funk tomorrow morning…they are actually calling for an eddy to form just south of the Channel Islands, which is sort of a weird place eddy-wise (usually it is closer to Catalina), and to top it off it is calling for it to be a “clear” eddy without the usual marine layer…eddy with sunshine. If the eddy does spin up like this we will see a bit of S-SW wind…mostly below 5 knots…pick up in the morning. Not enough to blow it out, but enough to put some crumble on it at the less-protected spots.

I did notice that the air-temps are supposed to drop tonight, which will sort of negate the worse parts of the eddy circulation…hopefully enough to keep it clean in the morning. At this point…I think we should expect some texture…and then be pleasantly surprised if it stays clean. Of course you can stick to spots with some south wind protection and avoid most of the problem all together. Afternoon winds pick up out of the W-WNW 10-12 knots.



Despite the slight wind issues I think it will still be fun tomorrow, and worth getting out to catch a few. S-facing points and reefs will probably have the best shape…but the beach breaks, the ones with decent sandbars, have been pretty fun lately as well. I would try and get on it early to take advantage of the lower tide.

Here are the tides…

04:35AM LDT 2.0 L
10:52AM LDT 5.9 H
06:20PM LDT 0.1 L