Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/24/2010

Forecast Overview
- New SW swell mixes with tropical energy from TS Blas on Friday…the surf stays small/playful for most areas but select spots will start to see some bigger surf.
- Saturday the new SW swell will continue to build while new tropical energy from Hurricane Celia starts to arrive at the extremely exposed SE spots.
- Sunday the meat of the new SW swell starts to arrive and Celia’s swell fills in, turning more southerly in the process. Wave heights will increase at most S facing spots with some larger waves at the top S-SE breaks.
- Monday and Tuesday the mix of SSW-SW swell and tropical energy from Hurricane Celia will peak…look for playful/decent sized surf for most of the exposed spots and overhead sets at the standout breaks.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (On the rise)
Another new S-SW swell (190-210) mixes in with the holding SW energy, the slightly dropping tropical S-SE swell (from TS Blas), and increasing local NW windswell. Most exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high sets at the spots that do better on the S swells. The standout S facing spots, particularly the SW exposed beaches and good combo spots, will have chest-shoulder high surf with a chance for a couple of plus sets on the morning tide push. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Friday…light and variable winds on tap for the morning with a couple of weak areas of onshore flow. Onshore texture picks up by midday and we can expect another round of W-WNW winds in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Saturday – (still building)
The pulse of SW swell (190-210) and steady NW windswell will hold on Saturday while the tropical SE (155-175) swell starts to get overlapping energy from Hurricane Celia. Most spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some bigger sets showing at the more exposed SE-SW facing spots. The standout S facing breaks, particularly those that can combo up the mix of swells, will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf through the morning…and then some head high sets that begin to arrive more frequently throughout the day. Winds/Weather: Winds look light in the morning…maybe a couple of pockets of onshore texture but pretty manageable for most areas. Look for W-WSW winds to increase throughout midday and eventually push onshore in the 12-15+ knot range for the afternoon.



Sunday – (more swell from all over the place)
Sunday’s surf will be on the rise from the get-go…we will have new bigger SW energy (190-215) filling in on the back of the previous Southern Hemi pulse. There will also be more tropical swell from Hurricane Celia…this will still be pretty SE’erly (155-165) but it will be on the rise throughout the day and slowly shifting more southerly. NW windswell will continue to hold on in the background…hopefully with enough energy to break up the other swells. At this point it looks like chest-shoulder high surf for most of the average exposed spots…with sets being a little more consistent at the SW/NW combo spots and the good SE facing breaks. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds in the morning…probably cleaner than the previous couple of days…so a chance for some light offshore in a few spots. Winds come onshore around midday and build out of the WNW at 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Monday – (still building)
The SSW-SW swell (190-205) holds on through Monday along with the NW windswell. The S-SE tropical swell (160-175) from Hurricane Celia will continue to build through Monday...eventually peaking later in the afternoon. Look for most spots to average around chest-shoulder high off the mix of swells. Standout S facing spots, and the excellent combo breaks, will see shoulder-head high surf with a few of the really well-exposed SE breaks seeing overhead sets at times throughout the day. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds in the morning with some light offshore flow in a few spots. Winds come onshore around midday and build out of the WNW at 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC is still pretty weaksauce right now…high-pressure continues to block out most of the NE Pacific, which kills any kind of long-period swell production.



There is one low-pressure that moves through the Gulf of Alaska…which doesn’t make any waves for us…but it does erode some of the high-pressure closer to our coast. It does this right as Hurricane Celia moves closer to the mid-latitudes, basically allowing Celia to track a bit more NW, which could be good for swell production (sort of a long-shot).



South Pacific
There will be plenty of Southern Hemi swell on tap for the next several days…and I am seeing another decent-sized pulse starting to brew up in the long-range…so basically the South Pacific continues to run like a well-oiled machine.

Right now we are seeing a little pulse of SW energy…from some scattered storm elements all spinning around New Zealand…these type of swells are notoriously inconsistent because of their swell-decay along the long travel distance, shadowing from the South Pacific Islands, and some blockage by the nearshore islands once they start to arrive in Socal. So this weak little shot of energy is everything that we can expect it to be. We can expect this SW’er to hold into Friday with some waist high waves and occasional chest high sets at the standouts.



The bigger SW swell (200-220) will start to arrive on Saturday (June 26) starting off very SW’erly and a bit inconsistent, which reflects the way the storm moved off New Zealand and began to intensify. This swell will build through Saturday evening, eventually peaking on Sunday and Monday (June 27-28). As this swell peaks we can expect the average SW facing spots to see chest-shoulder high surf with some less consistent head high sets. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets. Look for this swell to start to back off on the 29th…but expect rideable waves from this one hanging on through the end of June.



Further out there is another strong storm forecast to move through our swell window. It has been on the charts for the last few days and the forecasts have slowly improved as we have gotten closer to the storm actually pulling together. The latest forecasts are showing a pretty solid stretch of fetch (see how I did that…str-etch and f-etch…I am master of the English language) forming right in our S swell window…and not just your typical high-latitude storm, it will be an extra-tropical fueled nugget that manages to set up nearly 1200-1500 miles of 30+ knot wind with gusts hitting around 45-50 knots.



All of this wind is forecast to build up 30-35’ seas and push out a good S swell for Southern California (and a larger on for Central America/Mainland Mexico). This new S swell (180-200) would arrive as early as Saturday (July 3) and peak on the 4th of July…with energy sticking around for a few days afterwards. At this point it looks like this swell will be good for chest-shoulder high+ surf for the average S facing spots in California and some overhead sets at the standout breaks.



Things back down in the South Pacific after that storm…but I am still seeing some increasing storm activity under Australia and New Zealand that will likely push out into the South Pacific proper in the next week or so.

Tropics



We have two hurricanes in the East Pacific Tropics, one of which is in the Southern California swell window, and the other is just starting to reach the Baja Sur “SE swell” window.



For Socal Hurricane Celia is the most important at this point. She is a strong (115-knots), well-positioned storm (S-SSE of Socal…right in the 165-175 degree swell window), who is tracking well (WNW at 9-11 knots)…all of which are good things for generating swell. The initial energy from Celia will be arriving over this upcoming weekend...pushing in from the SE (155-165) starting on Saturday. It will be a bit slow and selective at first…but it will continue building and turning more southerly on Sunday, eventually peaking on Monday with plenty of energy showing into Tuesday. Once the swell turns more S (170-180) we can expect the average spots to see shoulder-high+ surf while the S-SE standouts, mostly through Orange County, see some overhead+ sets. This could come in stronger so we are going to want to keep an eye on the buoys and satellite obs as we move into the weekend.



The other system is Hurricane Darby, who has formed just off the coast of Southern Mainland Mexico…and is forecast to putt around in a little circle without making much movement toward the Socal swell window…in fact if it sticks with the current forecast Darby might not even reach the Cabo/Baja Sur swell window all that cleanly. As it is…the immediate nearby region of Southern Mainland Mex, can expect some consistent tropical S swell to mix with the Southern Hemi SW swell that will be hitting over the weekend.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, June 28th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/21/2010

Forecast Overview
- We will see a mix of small, but playful, NW/SW swells on Tuesday along with cleaner conditions.

- Wednesday will see the same mix hold through the day…and then tropical SE swell (from TS Blas) will start to arrive later in the afternoon.

- Thursday the surf mostly holds, but new SW energy and peaking Blas swell will help to improve consistency at the best S facing breaks.

- Friday our mix of swells will continue to increase as more SW energy arrives and helps to drive up the surf.

- By the weekend we can expect more SW swell, more tropical swell (from Hurricane Celia), and some more NW windswell...looks like overhead surf for the top S facing spots and by Sunday/Monday.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (playful leftovers)
Tuesday looks surfable…nothing special overall…but rideable with some semi-clean conditions in the morning. We will have a mix of backing off WNW-NW windswell, some inconsistent S-SW swell (190-210), and a trace of SE tropical swell from TS Blas that arrives late in the day. Most spots will average in the waist high range while the better S-SW facing breaks see some chest high sets. The standout combo spots that work well on the SW and NW energy will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Winds look decent for the morning…still a touch of eddy in the morning but winds should remain below 2-3 knots. Look for W-NW winds around 8-10 knots for the afternoon.



Wednesday – (new tropical SE swell)
New tropical SE swell (155-165) from Tropical Storm Blas will move in on Wednesday and mix with some inconsistent S-SW swell (190-220) from the Southern Hemisphere. Remnant NW windswell will stay pretty small. Average spots with just SW exposure will be in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. The standout S facing break that have SE exposure (and no shadowing issues) will be running more consistently around chest high with a few more shoulder high sets showing as the tropical swell mixes in and peaks. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions on tap for Wednesday. Light and variable winds for most areas early…even a touch offshore in a few areas near passes and canyons. Look for W winds around 10-15 knots moving back in by the afternoon.



Thursday – (a touch more juice)
The mix of S-SW swell (190-220) will come up a notch on Thursday while the tropical SSE-SE swell (160-175) and the local windswell hold sizes. Most spots will continue to see waist high surf with some chest high sets mixing in. The standout S-facing spots with decent SW and SE exposure will be in the chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets sneaking in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Thursday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning. W winds around 10-15 knots will push back in by the afternoon.



Friday – (On the rise)
Another new S-SW swell (190-210) mixes in with the holding SW energy, the slightly dropping tropical S-SE swell (from TS Blas still), and increasing local NW windswell. Most exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high sets at the spots that do better on the S swells. The standout S facing spots, particularly the SW exposed beaches and good combo spots, will have chest-shoulder high surf…with some inconsistent head high sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Still clean on Friday…light and variable to light-offshore winds on tap for the morning. Onshore texture picks up by midday and we can expect another round of W-WNW winds in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Pretty quiet in the North Pacific right now. There is one storm moving through the upper latitudes that will send some swell to Northern California, but it is positioned poorly for Socal. On the good side it looks like the NW winds along our coast will be backing off by midweek (Wednesday June 23) which will finally start to ease off the eddy.



With the winds dropping off we can expect the WNW-NW windswell to back off as well…we will see some remnant leftovers through the end of the week…but it will likely return next week as those outer-water winds strengthen once again.

South Pacific
The SPAC continues to hum along…plenty of storm activity moving through the storm track, which is kicking out a bunch of overlapping S-SW swells. Most of these swells will be in the “playful” size range but there is a solid looking one that will arrive this upcoming weekend and hold waves into early next week.



So for the next few days we can expect some minor S-SW pulses (190-220) that will keep us in small, but rideable, waist-chest high surf through the end of the week. Things get a little bigger and more consistent on Friday as some new SW energy (210-220) moves in as a precursor to the larger SW swell that arrives over the weekend.



The bigger SW swell (200-220) will start to arrive on Saturday (June 26) starting off very SW’erly and a bit inconsistent, which reflects the way the storm moved off New Zealand and began to intensify. This swell will build through Saturday evening, eventually peaking on Sunday and Monday (June 27-28). As this swell peaks we can expect the average SW facing spots to see chest-shoulder high surf with some less consistent head high sets. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets. Look for this swell to start to back off on the 29th…but expect rideable waves from this one hanging on through the end of June.



Further out there is another strong storm forecast to move through our swell window. This one is just starting to pull together and the real wave-making is still about 4-5 days out. If this can hold together we should see another round of head high/overhead sized SSW swell heading our way for around the 4-5th of July.

Tropics



The tropics are rocking…we have had 2 named storms develop over the weekend…TD Blas had reached “strong” tropical storm strength as he moved into our swell window on Sunday and though he has weakened back to a tropical depression we can expect some waves from him…those will be arriving over the next few days (so you can check the short-range for details on his tropical swell).



The second storm, Hurricane Celia, is tracking through the Baja Sur/Cabo SE swell window…with some of her waves starting to filter into those beaches already this afternoon (right on the tail of Blas tropical swell). She hasn’t quite reached Socal’s swell window, but forecasts have her tracking toward it, possibly moving into a wave-making position by late Wednesday/early Thursday. Forecasts also have her maintain her hurricane strength as she clears the Baja swell shadow, which means we should see a bigger tropical SE swell heading our way for the 26-27th. (remember there is a SW swell filling at the same time). At this point it looks like we should see some chest-head high surf at the better SE facing spots and some shoulder-head high+ surf at the standouts.

Further out…there is yet another bunch of thunderstorms a few hundred miles South of El Salvador…there is a good chance that these will get more organized over the next day or so and we could be looking at another named storm by later this week. Good times…

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 24th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Waves for Wednesday – mid-week mess

Wednesday is not looking like a surf day.

We will actually have a mix of new swell hitting on Wednesday but coastal winds are going to be pretty unstable (aka…bad) thanks to a passing cold front. In the water we are going to have a mix of early weak leftovers, new S-SW swell (190-210), and building WNW-NW energy (285-300) in the form of medium period swell along with increasing local windswell.



Wave heights are going hold in the waist-chest high range for many of the avereage exposed spots. Standout S-SW facing breaks, good NW windswell spots, and the top combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range…and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides.

Unfortunately shape doesn’t look great…onshore winds are expected to continue blowing overnight and will likely set up a funky eddy in the morning. At this point it looks like onshore W winds around 5-10 knots blowing through most of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties. Orange County and San Diego will be more SW’erly…and a touch lighter…more 5-8 knots through the early mornign. Onshore flow is expected to increase out of the W around 12-18 knots by the afternoon. I am posting the early morning COAMPS model below…but I think that it is being a bit optimistic on the slight side/offshore flow that it is showing along the coast…chances are that even if winds switch around for an hour+ in the mornign it won’t be enough to groom out the bump set up by tonights winds.



I don’t think that it will be worth investing much time in the surf tomorrow…mostly because of the wind. I definitely wouldn’t plan on driving very far to check it. I would however give it a quick look (if you live close) or a quick cam-check (if you don’t live close)…just to see how the winds unroll tonight…we might see some small pockets of surfyness at the more protected spots.

Here are the tides…

01:51AM LDT 0.5 L
08:05AM LDT 4.5 H
01:53PM LDT 1.7 L
07:39PM LDT 5.0 H

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Linda becoming a hurricane

Tropical Storm Linda just got a little better looking



I have been watching Linda for a couple of days and her wave-making potential has been steadily increasing…so much so that we are actually seeing a little bit of tropical S-SW swell (190-210) already moving into our exposed breaks.

Linda has been sitting out in the NE tropical region…sort of hanging between our region and the Central Pacific tropical region. Initially forecasts had her jogging WNW slowly and then pushing westward further out towards Hawaii. But instead of moving she has hung almost completely still and strengthened, shrugging off some minor shear, and developing some nice feeder winds that stretch down into the ITCZ.



Now Linda is a strong Tropical Storm and is right on the verge of becoming a CAT-1 Hurricane. Her current wind speeds are holding around 60+ knots at the core with gusts to 70-knots at times. It looks like these will strengthen over the next 24 hours and push Linda into Hurricane Strength tonight and likely help her maintain those winds into midday tomorrow. Check out the QuikSCAT winds for the storm…



Surfwise what this means for us is some nice S-SW tropical swell (190-210) that fills in more on Thursday and will continue to push in some playful waves Friday through Sunday before we see a significant drop.

At this point I want to stay on the conservative side sizewise. I expect that the average SW facing spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range. Standout S-SW facing breaks, particularly spots that like the shorter-period S-SW swells, will be more consistently around chest high with some shoulder high sets mixing in. Chances are that we will see some bigger waves mixing on Friday/Saturday, depending on Linda actually reaching hurricane strength, but I don’t think we should count on them just yet.

Overall I think that these playful waves will be a nice filler for the gap in surf that we have been slogging through the last few days…nothing huge, but playful and at least rideable at the exposed areas.

Surf for Monday – S-SW swell starts to peak

Monday is looking like a surf day.

The second shot of S-SSW swell (180-200) will be moving in and mixing with the SW’er (200-220) that peaked over the weekend. We will see those swells working together (as well as a touch of local windswell) to increase size and the consistency of the surf. Check out the CDIP’er this afternoon…lots more colors showing that usual.



And the Oceanside Buoy from this afternoon.



The surf tomorrow is going to be decent size for many areas…lots of the average exposed spots will be in the chest-head high range. The standout S-SW facing areas will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets fairly consistently as the swell gets going. Those standout areas will even have a few bigger waves going a couple of feet overhead as sets sneak through. The biggest surf will be at the summer spots in Orange County, the exposed parts of San Diego, and the best exposed areas of Northern LA.

Winds look ok…sort of light and unstable through the morning. Not quite eddy but getting close. Look for variable to clean conditions through Ventura/LA…and then slight onshore texture through Orange County…with more bump at the exposed beaches down in San Diego. It shouldn’t be more that 5 knots in the morning…but there is a lot of residual energy in the water that isn’t going to let it get super clean...sort of like morning sickness that doesn't go away. The usual WNW winds 10-14 knots moves through in the afternoon.



So for tomorrow…definitely expect a bit more size and consistency that we saw over the weekend. Sets should be a little meatier, and I expect the beach breaks to be more closed out. Points and reefs will continue to be the best call shapewise, but look for a few makeable sections off the structures (piers/jetties/rocks/sunken pirate ships) if you need a break from the crowd. Have a good one…lots of waves on tap this week…don’t burn out too early.

Here are tides

12:09AM LDT 4.4 H
06:08AM LDT 1.2 L
12:27PM LDT 5.4 H
07:21PM LDT 0.9 L

Friday’s Surf – Building SW and WNW swell combo

Friday will be another surf day...but we may see some eddy texture at the more exposed spots.

We will have more of a swell combo on Friday...there will be a mix of building SW swell (190-215 or so), leftover S-SW swell from earlier this week, and building WNW windswell. We already have a little more of the windswell in the water here on Thursday but this will continue to build through the day on Friday and looks like it is going to max out over the weekend. Check out the CDIP 3-day forecast...(take in mind that a lot of the “swell heights” will actually be quite a bit of short-period chop from increasing outer water winds...this isn’t a huge NW swell all of a sudden).



The increasing windswell (and increasing outer water winds) are sort of a mixed blessing...on one hand we are going to get some more cross-up to the southern hemi swells, which will make the beach breaks a bit more fun. But on the other hand the stronger outer water winds spin up the “coastal eddy” which means S-SW winds for many of the more-exposed areas and some steady crumble/texture at spots facing the wrong way.

On Friday...fortunately...it looks like the wind starts off slow...mostly light and variable in the morning with only a couple of small pockets of texture. Look for NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Surfwise we are going to see a lot of waist-chest high waves at the average exposed spots with some chest-shoulder high sets at the best combo breaks. The bigger waves will be more consistent in the afternoon as the mix of S-SW swell fills back in and the local windswell starts to build up as well.

I think that you should be able to find some rideable waves almost all S-SW facing spots...the NW windswell breaks will be a bit soft in the morning. The tides aren’t going to do a lot to help us tomorrow...so you might want to stick with breaks that can handle a little bit more water.

Here are the tides...

01:45AM LDT 0.0 L
07:59AM LDT 3.2 H
12:26PM LDT 2.0 L
06:53PM LDT 6.0 H

Something brewing in the South Pacific - Waves on the way

So after watching the storm, and the swell it produced, for the last couple of days it looks like things are on track for a pretty decent run of swell throughout Central America, Mainland Mexico, Baja Mexico, and Southern California.

I revised the forecast a little from the one I issued a couple of days ago...not much size-wise but just a little on the timing.

Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico will be the biggest...look for easy well-overhead surf for most exposed areas. Top spots will go double-overhead and bigger as the swell peaks on the 18-19th. Deepwater breaks like Puerto Escondido will be even bigger, probably triple-overhead+ on the sets.

Northern Mainland Mexico will see the size drop off a bit...just due to the more southerly angle of the swell. Look for most spots in that area to see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range. Standout S facing spots will have sets going a few feet overhead as the swell peaks late on the 18 and into the 19th.

Baja Sur will see the swell move in and peak on the 19-20th...with the tip peaking a little earlier. Most spots will be running in the shoulder-overhead range as the swell starts really working. Standout spots, particularly breaks near the Tip, will have sets going a few feet overhead and a little bigger at the swell's peak.

Southern California and Baja Norte will have long-period energy from this S swell (170-190) showing late on Friday the 18th...this will build overnight and through Saturday, eventually peaking Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then slowly fading out on Monday. At this point we can expect the average S facing spots to see shoulder-head high+ surf while the standout S facing areas, particularly in North Orange County, see some overhead+ sets as the swell peaks. To top it off there will be some tropical energy still lingering around as leftovers from Elida slowly fade away...this energy should help to fill in the consistency gaps and put a lot of waves into the exposed areas throughout the weekend.

Make sure to check back...I will be talking about the swell some more in the Daily Update as we get closer...or I might bail to Mexico and leave you hanging...it is about 50/50 right now (just kidding...well sort of).

Here are some links to the previous posts

Post 1
Post 2

Something Brewing in the South Pacific - Part 2

Things are still looking pretty good for this newly forming storm that is going to be sending some large S-SW surf for South America and Central America...and some decent sized waves for Mexico, Baja, and Southern California

The storm has actually just started the key portion of its development, where the colder low-pressure near Antarctica mixes with a warm/wet low-pressure from the mid-latitudes. Over the next couple of days the latent-heat energy of the warm air will be released as it cools in the colder low-pressure...this will help to supercharge wind speeds...and hopefully mean that we will get bigger surf down the road.

Here is a chart that shows a lot of it happening.




Here is a shot from the Quikscat satellite showing increasing wind speeds in the good part of the storms core.



And finally here is a shot of the WWIII swell model, which is showing the dominant swell period...as you can see it has the new S-SW swell moving into Central America and Southern Mexico on the 18th, and that it will start showing in Baja on the 19th and finally arrive in SoCal on the 20th.



The storm still has some developing to do before we get concrete wave heights for SoCal but at this point it does look like the S facing spots will be around head high while the standout S facing standouts see some overhead sets, which sounds good to me after all of the flatness we have see over the last few days.

Here is a link to the old post if you haven't read it already

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2008/07/something-brewing-in-south-pacifichmmm.html

Something brewing in the South Pacific…(hmmm anyone feel like a Mexico/Central America/South America surf trip.)

While I am not quite ready to issue a swell alert for this storm I am definitely keeping a close eye on it as it develops.

Check out this animation and you can see what I mean (you may have to refresh the page to get the .gif to start playing from the beginning.)



As you can see there is a tight little nugget of a storm brewing up in the upper latitudes of the SPAC right near the Antarctic ice…what is really interesting is that the forecasts are showing the storm making a very solid shift from the upper to the mid-latitudes and that a lot of this movement is being powered by an infusion of warmer air/water-vapor that is being pushed down from tropical waters. It looks like this warmer air-mass is going to help supercharge the colder storm making it way more intense than it would have been on its own.

Forecasts are showing a great movement track for this storm…moving across the latitudes gives it a lot of extra time to generate waves and lines up a lot intense fetch for South America and Central America.

Also because of its movement the backside of the storm, that is being pushed by a ridge of high-pressure to the west, lines up fetch for Mainland Mexico, Baja Mexico, and Southern California. Check out this chart and you can see what I mean.



At first glance…and I will likely revise this as the storm actually forms in the next 3-4 days…this is what I see for each region.

South America is definitely going to be the biggest out of all of the areas affected by this swell…looks like Chile could be a little wet and wild as the storm itself pushes over about they same time the swell does. Peru looks like it could be a pretty good call if you are looking for some serious sized surf.

Central America will also get a good dose of swell…there may be a bit of blockage from the Galapagos Islands for the southern areas (Panama and Southern Costa Rica) but even the more shadowed spots will see consistent well-overhead+ surf from this one.

Mainland Mexico will also be well exposed to this swell…the further south you are the bigger it will be…expect to lose a lot of size as you move up the coast towards Baja.

Baja and SoCal will both likely see some decent sized surf from this storm as well but it is still a little spotty on exactly how much energy it will be able to send our way before it shifts out of our swell window. At this point I am expecting the swell to arrive in Southern Baja around the 19-20th and more on the 20-21st for SoCal.

Making Travel Plans

This storm has been a pretty consistent feature in the forecast for the last several days…so I am inclined to say that this may be a good time to roll the dice on a trip to Central America or Peru. The swell isn’t 100% locked in at this point but I think the odds are good that it will pull together over the next few days. If you are thinking about making travel plans to those areas I would try and give yourself a little fudge room on your dates…try get to Peru by the 15th and to Central America by the 16-17th...and then plan on the swell arriving a day or so after you get to your spots.