Tuesday’s Surf – S-SW swell on the rise…I think I see the eddy lurking in the bushes

Tuesday will definitely see an increase in surf…but stronger winds in the outer waters will start to creep up, possibly spinning up our coastal eddy enough to add some texture/funkiness to our exposed spots.

Our new S-SW swell (190-215) has been slowly increasing on the buoys throughout the day here on Monday and probably even managed to put a few bigger sets into the select spots before sunset. The stronger part of the swell is starting to arrive right now…check out the Lajollasurf.org buoy list…there are a lot of 18-20 second stuff showing all of a sudden.



You can check out the live version of this list here….

http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html

On Tuesday we can expect the S-SW swell (190-215) to start to peak…at this point it looks like the biggest part of the swell will arrive late Tuesday afternoon/evening and then peak overnight into early Wednesday morning. This swell will be mixing with some smaller leftover S-SSW swells, and some fluky WNW-NW windswell. Look for the bigger S-SW swell to fill in through the morning…with the biggest surf arriving later in the day.



Sizewise…the average S-SW facing spots…and a few of the better S exposed combo spots will have some chest-head surf with a few inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. The standout SSW-SW facing spots and the excellent combo spots, mostly in South OC, a few parts of North OC, as well as a few other scattered breaks with some good exposure, will have surf running consistently shoulder-head high+ with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead. Try and keep in mind that the tides and occasional wind-funkiness will hamper the shape and consistency...the biggest and the best waves will show on the tide push and through the periods with the cleanest conditions.

Winds are look sort of marginal…there is a bit of an eddy, but neither the NWS or the COAMPS wind models are calling for it to be very strong during the morning. If things cool off enough tonight, or we get the high-pressure to move in a little early…then we will have a chance for some lighter winds through the morning…but as it is I would expect at least a little onshore wind and texture. Current forecast models are calling for light/variable to light/onshore flow for breaks in Santa Barbara down through Los Angeles. The same models are showing a bit more of light/variable/southerly flow early…with some increasing eddy texture building in by mid-morning. Most spots will have W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.







It sure would have been nice to have the sunny skies and light winds to hold long enough for this swell to arrive, but Mother Nature has a pretty sick sense of humor sometimes (like when good sized S swells arrive). With the swell having some size…and the windswell not really having enough pep to break it up…I think that the points and reefs are going to be the best call on Tuesday, most of the beach breaks are going to be pretty lined up as well as see a lovely current to fight against. (or float along with…which is usually how well I do against them). Also, I think we are going to see a little inconsistency on the big sets earlier in the day…but things should fill in as the swell continues to fill in. Expect some good size from this swell to hold overnight into Wednesday.

Here are the tides…happy hunting, let me know if you get any good ones.

07/20/2010 Tuesday
12:36AM LDT 0.3 L
07:00AM LDT 3.1 H
11:09AM LDT 2.4 L
05:48PM LDT 5.6 H

Surf for Tuesday – Dropping…just a little bit

Tuesday will be a surf day.

The W-WNW swell (270-300 but with the prime swell around 285-300) that peaked Sunday/Monday will be slowly fading on Tuesday…fortunately the storm that produced the swell had some legs so there will still be plenty of energy sloshing around.



Average spots with some W exposure will hold in the chest-shoulder high range and pull in a few bigger sets during the lower tides. Top WNW-NW spots, in the usual Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego areas, will see shoulder-head high surf with some sets going overhead at times…San Diego looks like it will be the most exposed, but the shorter swell periods do nice things to both Ventura and South Bay breaks, so it will be sort of a wash.

Winds look good for the morning…light and variable conditions will be on tap for most areas, even a little bit offshore for a few of the windier spots. Look for variable winds to continue up through lunch and then shift a touch more onshore for the afternoon. Looks like the winds will be light enough that the more protected spots will stay fairly surfable throughout the day.



So plenty of surf on tap for tomorrow…even a bit of decent size at the best exposed areas. Really it just looks like the surf will lose a bit of its “punch” rather than much size. Points and reefs will continue to be the best call…the beach breaks have mostly just been lined up closeouts. You are definitely going to want to check the exposed points/reefs first, and then the beach breaks that have something to break up the swell as a backup. Overall the right breaks look like they will be pretty fun tomorrow…I just wish that we had something to cross up the W-WNW energy.

Make sure to read the regional forecasts for more details.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

01/12/2010 Tuesday
12:40AM LST 2.3 L
06:48AM LST 5.7 H
02:19PM LST -0.8 L
08:46PM LST 3.6 H

Surf For Friday – New waves but the swell is taking its sweet time

Friday will be a surf day…with new waves showing in the morning but the peak of the swell arriving more in the evening (and into Saturday).

So this new swell is kind of being a little bit of a ninja…the initial part of the swell is coming in pretty westerly…with the main part of the energy in the 275-285 degree range…which thanks to the position of the storm is letting it slip past our outer buoys, namely the #46006 buoy.

Normally this wouldn’t be as possible with a storm that is still a reasonable distance from our coast…(it is a lot more common with storms that form up a few hundred miles out to sea)…but the California Buoy #46059 tore loose from its moorings sometime last year and it hasn’t been put back into service…so there is a nice big hole in our coverage. Check out this handy little image I put together and you can sort of see what I mean.



Also the more westerly swell direction means that the swell is hitting more of the coast at the same time, which again limits the usual “early warning” signs that you can see as a more NW’erly swell moves down the coast starting up in NorCal, through Central Cal, and down to Socal. Basically it means that you can have a swell slip in past the buoys and bam it starts hitting all of California’s spots within a few hours of each other…or if you are REALLY unlucky the storm won’t produce the swell you thought it would and you can’t tell that there are no waves on the way until it fails to arrive. Yeah I love those.

Anyway…the new W-WNW swell (275-300) is actually starting to show on our nearshore indicator buoys (like the Harvest Buoy and San Nicolas Island) and it will continue to fill in overnight and throughout the day on Friday.



All of the exposed spots will be seeing some new waves in the morning…average spots will be in the waist-chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets. Better WNW facing breaks, like those in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay, will be in the chest-head high range. The standout WNW-NW spots, mostly in Ventura through the morning, will be running in the shoulder-overhead range on the sets. As the swell fills in look for all of the W-NW facing breaks to increase in size and consistency…with the best breaks seeing sets going a couple of feet overhead by the end of the day.

Winds look good…light and variable to light/moderate offshore near the wind-prone passes and canyons. Winds stay light but turn slightly onshore through the mid-afternoon. Looks like they may lay down later in evening as well, but don’t count on it being bump free.



I think it will be worth getting out and surfing tomorrow morning…it won’t be huge or anything right off the bat…but the swell is filling in which means that it will just get bigger and more consistent. Points and Reefs will have the best shape…the beach breaks are going to be a bit walled as the swell fills in…expect some current to paddle against at the wide open spots as well.

There is a bit of a difference in how the swell will be hitting each of our Counties tomorrow. The Regional Forecasts have some of those details so give ‘em a check when you get a chance.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast


Here are the tides… send me some reports if you get a chance (pics are always welcome too).

01/08/2010 Friday
03:29AM LST 5.1 H
11:05AM LST 0.7 L
05:05PM LST 2.8 H
09:39PM LST 2.0 L

Waves for Wednesday – big WNW swell builds throughout the day

Wednesday will be a surf day…a really good surf day (if you don’t mind the questionable water quality).

The WNW swell (280-300) will be on the rise throughout the day on Wednesday and will mix with some lumpy local windswell and a trace of SW swell that will basically evaporate in the bigger WNW-NW swell.

Due to the nature of the WNW swell angle and the timing of the storm, we can expect a pretty significant increase in swell for Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties early on Wednesday…but the swell won’t be peaking for those areas until late in the day…likely after dark.

Eventually the swell will push into to all the exposed NW breaks…we can even expect a few waves showing early but not a really big jump in wave heights until later in the afternoon. Check out how the CDIP wave model shows the swell filling in on Wednesday…

Here it is at 3am



and 9am



By 3pm it continues to fill in




Winds look ok for Wednesday…sort of light/variable for the morning with some leftover texture and onshore flow for a few areas. The forecast is calling for a touch more wind than I think it should…mostly because it is freezing ass cold and that has a tendency to throw together a land-breeze as the ground temps drop lower than the ocean…I think we will have fairly clean conditions early but enough instability that variable onshore bump returns around midday and possibly strengthens into the afternoon.



So as this swell builds I expect the best shape to be at the points/reefs…this sort of size will just close out the directly exposed beach breaks...there may be a window in the morning for the southerly counties where the size hasn’t jumped too much and the beach breaks will be more makeable, just expect it to shift around by the end of the day. Water quality won’t be the best…really with the amount of rain it will be pretty nasty at the spots affected by runoff…so as usual we end up having to weigh the risks of catching some nasty against the quality of the surf. Personally I am going to hunt around some of the more protected areas close to home…but if I had a real point/reef sort of close that would be my first check. If your region really sucks on these swells for some reason, and you love big waves, this would be a good swell to drive a little further for…but I might save it for Thursday as the swell peaks everywhere, not just further north.

Here are the tides…good luck, stay safe, and send me some pictures if you get a chance.

12/09/2009 Wednesday
03:31AM LST 4.8 H
10:01AM LST 1.7 L
03:20PM LST 3.6 H
09:34PM LST 1.0 L

Surf for Tuesday – S-SSW swell continues

Tuesday will be another surf day.

The S-SSW swell (180-200) will continue on Tuesday, with a touch of NW windswell filling in through the background (probably not enough to break up the Southern Hemi though). The swell will hold solid through the day and slowly turn more southerly in swell direction.






Wave heights will continue to average around chest-head high at the average exposed areas. Make sure to really look at the CDIP map...there are some shadowed areas like parts of Northern LA as you get closer to Santa Monica, as well as some of the North/Central SD areas (there is a gap from La Jolla on up to about Oceanside)...those shadowed areas are going to be smaller/less consistent than the “average areas”.

The standout S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County (and in a few other spots as well), will be more consistently in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets mixing in...sometimes going overhead+ on the lower tides. The 5’+ midday high tide has been causing some shape issues as well...so try to plan around that if you can.

Winds will be ok...not great...but not all that bad either. Expect variable onshore winds below the 4-5 knots. Areas that can usually knock down the wind (with kelp or high cliffs) will be the cleanest. Look for WNW winds 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Points and reefs are going to continue to have the best shape tomorrow...the open beach breaks are still a bit walled up, surfable but not as fun as spots that can string together more makeable sections. It seems like the first part of this swell has been a bit inconsistent on the bigger waves...but there is still more energy on the way in, so hopefully we will be able to squeeze more consistency out of it over the next couple of days. Also...you are going to want to stay away from the high tide...that thing has been swamp-thing-ing shape like nobody’s business.

Here are the tides...

01:10AM LDT 3.6 H
06:38AM LDT 1.8 L
01:10PM LDT 5.2 H (swamp thing!)
08:38PM LDT 1.1 L

Surf for Monday – S-SW swell starts to peak

Monday is looking like a surf day.

The second shot of S-SSW swell (180-200) will be moving in and mixing with the SW’er (200-220) that peaked over the weekend. We will see those swells working together (as well as a touch of local windswell) to increase size and the consistency of the surf. Check out the CDIP’er this afternoon…lots more colors showing that usual.



And the Oceanside Buoy from this afternoon.



The surf tomorrow is going to be decent size for many areas…lots of the average exposed spots will be in the chest-head high range. The standout S-SW facing areas will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets fairly consistently as the swell gets going. Those standout areas will even have a few bigger waves going a couple of feet overhead as sets sneak through. The biggest surf will be at the summer spots in Orange County, the exposed parts of San Diego, and the best exposed areas of Northern LA.

Winds look ok…sort of light and unstable through the morning. Not quite eddy but getting close. Look for variable to clean conditions through Ventura/LA…and then slight onshore texture through Orange County…with more bump at the exposed beaches down in San Diego. It shouldn’t be more that 5 knots in the morning…but there is a lot of residual energy in the water that isn’t going to let it get super clean...sort of like morning sickness that doesn't go away. The usual WNW winds 10-14 knots moves through in the afternoon.



So for tomorrow…definitely expect a bit more size and consistency that we saw over the weekend. Sets should be a little meatier, and I expect the beach breaks to be more closed out. Points and reefs will continue to be the best call shapewise, but look for a few makeable sections off the structures (piers/jetties/rocks/sunken pirate ships) if you need a break from the crowd. Have a good one…lots of waves on tap this week…don’t burn out too early.

Here are tides

12:09AM LDT 4.4 H
06:08AM LDT 1.2 L
12:27PM LDT 5.4 H
07:21PM LDT 0.9 L

Waves for Wednesday – S-SW carnage continues

Wednesday will be another surf day.

The S swell (170-190) will be winding down slowly while the SW swell (200-220), while smaller, continues to peak. There is a touch of NW windswell out in the water but the bigger southern hemi swells continue to dominate the exposed spots.



Surf will continue to be on the healthy side tomorrow...most S facing spots will be in the chest-head high range tomorrow. The standout S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County, parts of San Diego, and some parts of LA, will be in the shoulder-overhead range with a few bigger sets still sneaking through at the top deepwater breaks.

Winds will continue to be on the light side through the morning. Mostly light and variable to start off but with a few pockets of variable/southerly flow at times. Overcast skies early will burn off to sunny skies by the afternoon.



Shapewise the points and reefs will continue to have the best shape...and the biggest crowds. The jetties/piers/rocks and stuff that break up the swell a touch will be decent fallbacks but in most cases won’t have the best shape. My local beach break did its great wall of china impression again today and, since I was pressed for time, I ended up bodysurfing some thumpers at a local shorebreak...which while fun isn’t as much fun as surfing (for me). Hopefully we will see this swell start to break up later this week and start to be a little more rideable at the beach breaks. In the meantime it looks like boards for meatier surf are the call...unless you are planning a spot a little further out of the line of fire.

Check out the screenshot I got off the wavewatch.com Malibu camera...this is in-between sets...but I think the secret is out.



Here are the tides...

12:03AM LDT 1.4 L
05:26AM LDT 2.9 H
10:43AM LDT 1.6 L
05:30PM LDT 5.0 H

Surf for Tuesday – S swell continues (and gets a little more SW)

Tuesday will be a surf day...but like Monday you are going to need to find a spot that can help break up the swell...otherwise it is just walls-o-rama and the current-paddle-treadmill.

No joke...at about 10 a.m. I took a drive from HB State Beach all the way up through Bolsa Chica, which is a pretty darn big stretch of beach break, and I think I counted 10 guys out surfing through the whole stretch. Mostly it was just overhead section walls and a current that was probably rolling around 10 knots on the inside. Anyway I just thought I would share...until this swell starts to back down a bit you might want to avoid the really open beach breaks.

Swellwise on Tuesday we are going to see the S-swell (170-190) continue to hold while SW swell (200-220) peaks.



Wave heights will continue to run around shoulder-head high at the average S-SW facing spots. Standout S facing breaks through Orange County, North San Diego, and Northern LA, will have overhead sets. In a few of the spots that can really focus the S swell mix look for sets going a couple feet+ overhead at times.

Winds will be ok...sort of slight-eddyish...so variable to light southerly through the morning but mostly below 5-6 knots. Winds shift SW-W around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Points and reefs are going to continue to be the best call on Tuesday...we just need something to break up the swell. The piers/jetties will be a good fallback but I would rate them as a far second choice compared to some long point somewhere. Just an FYI to OC surfers...the NSSA Nationals are back in town for this week...they are going to be at Salt Creek the 17-20th and then at Lower Trestles the 22-27th. I just wanted to give you guys a heads up if you were planning on surfing those spots since water access might be a bit limited.

Here are the tides

03:43AM LDT 3.1 H
09:56AM LDT 1.3 L
04:51PM LDT 4.6 H

Oh you might want to check out the Daily Bread blog...he has some sick shots of the swell hitting this morning.

Waves for the Weekend – SW swell continues

We will have a couple of surf days over the weekend...nothing great but better than the flatness. Like the last couple of days you are going to need to find a spot that can break up the swell.

The SW swell mix (190-220) will continue to peak into Saturday before slowly fading on Sunday. There will also be some minor windswell in the water...but with short periods (around 3-4 seconds which basically makes it “wind-chop” coming in from the outer waters)...so it won’t do much of a job of breaking up the longer mostly walled up lines at the beach breaks.

Check out the sideways forecast for the next few days...



You can see the most exposed areas on the forecast...they are the slightly lighter-blue dots along the coastline. Most of the energy is heading towards the usual SW-facing spots...but this model is initializing off the Harvest Buoy, which is a little glitchy on swell direction right now. In reality there should be a lot more light-blue in SD County and LA County as well.

The wind looks ok for the next couple of mornings. Forecast charts are calling it light and variable...with a slight eddy-type flow to it. So look for weak southerly winds through the mornings with some building W-WNW winds 10-15 knots through the afternoons. Cloudy overcast skies at first and then some burn off through the end of the day.

Since there are a lot of beach breaks around my neck of the woods...I really wish that there was something to break this swell up a bit. Unfortunately we aren’t going to get much help in that department so you will have to be a bit more selective in your spot choice. Points and reefs will continue to be the best call...and then fall back on the piers/jetties/rocks/submerged cars/shipwrecks/really slow whales that can create a little crease in the lines coming in. You can still expect some longer waits between waves but we should have a little more consistency over the next couple of days.

Here are the tides...have a good one.

Saturday
03:42AM LDT -0.7 L
10:06AM LDT 3.4 H
02:32PM LDT 2.2 L
08:43PM LDT 5.8 H

Sunday
04:17AM LDT -0.8 L
10:45AM LDT 3.4 H
03:05PM LDT 2.3 L
09:15PM LDT 5.8 H

Surf for Friday – peaking SW swell

Friday will be a surf day…but you are going to want to stick with spots that can break up the SW swell…the beach breaks have been a bit walled and sectiony on the first part of the swell.

We are going to see the mix of SW swells (190-220) and some building but still minimal local NW windswell. Check out the CDIP from this afternoon…I am expecting it to be similar…but with a little more westerly angle to the Southern Hemi swell.



Surf will continue to run in the chest-shoulder high range at the average spots. The standout breaks, mostly through Northern San Diego and Southern Orange County (but sneaking into a few other areas as well), will have sets in the shoulder-head high range. Expect some longer waits between the sets…and slower shape on the higher tides.

Winds look ok tomorrow…the weather is still going to be a little unstable thanks to that upper level low pressure (there is a chance for more thunderstorms) so we might get some fluky winds. If it is clean when you look at it I would get out there because it may switch around pretty fast. Current forecasts are calling for light and variable winds through the morning and then NW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.

We have waves, which is good, but I don’t think this is great swell overall. It will be inconsistent and walled up on the sets for most areas and the few breaks that can handle the longer SW lines will probably be on the crowded side. Points and reefs will be the best call…and then beach breaks with piers or jetties or giant rocks will be a semi-decent fallback spot. Keep in mind that we are probably going to end up sacrificing shape for less people in the water.

Here are the tides…

03:05AM LDT -0.6 L
09:23AM LDT 3.4 H
01:57PM LDT 2.1 L
08:11PM LDT 5.8 H