Surf for Tuesday – S swell continues (and gets a little more SW)

Tuesday will be a surf day...but like Monday you are going to need to find a spot that can help break up the swell...otherwise it is just walls-o-rama and the current-paddle-treadmill.

No joke...at about 10 a.m. I took a drive from HB State Beach all the way up through Bolsa Chica, which is a pretty darn big stretch of beach break, and I think I counted 10 guys out surfing through the whole stretch. Mostly it was just overhead section walls and a current that was probably rolling around 10 knots on the inside. Anyway I just thought I would share...until this swell starts to back down a bit you might want to avoid the really open beach breaks.

Swellwise on Tuesday we are going to see the S-swell (170-190) continue to hold while SW swell (200-220) peaks.



Wave heights will continue to run around shoulder-head high at the average S-SW facing spots. Standout S facing breaks through Orange County, North San Diego, and Northern LA, will have overhead sets. In a few of the spots that can really focus the S swell mix look for sets going a couple feet+ overhead at times.

Winds will be ok...sort of slight-eddyish...so variable to light southerly through the morning but mostly below 5-6 knots. Winds shift SW-W around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Points and reefs are going to continue to be the best call on Tuesday...we just need something to break up the swell. The piers/jetties will be a good fallback but I would rate them as a far second choice compared to some long point somewhere. Just an FYI to OC surfers...the NSSA Nationals are back in town for this week...they are going to be at Salt Creek the 17-20th and then at Lower Trestles the 22-27th. I just wanted to give you guys a heads up if you were planning on surfing those spots since water access might be a bit limited.

Here are the tides

03:43AM LDT 3.1 H
09:56AM LDT 1.3 L
04:51PM LDT 4.6 H

Oh you might want to check out the Daily Bread blog...he has some sick shots of the swell hitting this morning.

Vacation and Long Range Surf Forecast

Hey gang I just wanted to give you a heads up...one of my best friends is being deployed to Iraq (he flies a Blackhawk for the Army), so I am finally going to take a couple of days off to hang out (and throw a party naturally) with him before he ships out.

So I am posting a longer-range surf forecast for Southern California for the next few days...If my liver is still working at the end of this weekend I should be back and have an update for Monday's forecast. See you then!

Here is the forecast...there are not a lot of changes over the next few days...just plenty of SW swell (and local windswell)

Thursday - SW swell continues to hold and mix with some local WNW windswell. Most spots will see chest-shoulder high surf while the standout breaks in South Orange County and North San Diego see shoulder-head high+ sizes with some occasional overhead sets on the lower tides during the morning. Winds look ok in the morning, mostly variable but with a bit of that leftover windswell warble at the more open combo breaks. Afternoon winds build out of the W around 10-15 knots.

Friday - The morning will start off with holding SW swell and steady WNW windswell. New SW swell (200-220) begins filling in through midday with more long-period energy and will add some size and consistency to the top SW facing spots. Wave heights won't change all that much...still plenty of chest-shoulder high+ surf for the average SW facing breaks and decent combo spots. Standouts see more shoulder-high to overhead surf throughout the day. Conditions look clean again with light and variable winds in the morning and building onshore breeze by the afternoon.

Saturday - The SW'er from Friday will continue to hold throughout the day while it mixes with the leftovers from earlier in the week and the consistent but small local windswell. Wave heights again hold in the chest-shoulder high+ range for the average SW spots. Standouts see overhead sets through the morning tide push...but will become less consistent as the tide fills in and the swell slowly drops in the afternoon.

Sunday - The mix of SW swells finally starts to dip down a bit. There will still be some playful surf but most of the larger sets will have started to drop off. Look for mostly waist-chest high waves at the average exposed SW spots (and combo breaks). Standout spots, again in San Diego and Orange County, will have bigger chest-shoulder high waves through the morning with smaller and less consistent surf on tap through the afternoon.


Anyway hope this gets you through the next few days...have a great weekend! (Ha I am on Vacation!)

Wednesday’s Surf – A little cleaner with more SW swell

Wednesday looks like a surf day…with more swell and some cleaner conditions.

Look for yet another SW swell (200-220) to move in and peak on Wednesday combining its energy with the SW swell from the weekend and the small local WNW windswell.

Most of the average SW facing spots will see more chest-shoulder high surf with some shoulder-high+ sets sneaking through on the better tides. The standout SW facing breaks…mostly the South Orange County and Northern San Diego top surf spots…will continue to see shoulder-overhead sets with some bigger waves mixing in inconsistently. The strictly NW facing breaks will have a mix of weak windswell with some knee-waist high+ sets.

Here is the latest CDIP model…tomorrow will look a lot like this. One thing that you need to remember on a chart like this is that the model is showing what I generally call deepwater swell (even though the water isn’t that deep)…basically this is energy that hasn’t moved into the final phases of shoaling. So even though the chart is showing 2-3’+ of SW swell (with the long 17-18 second periods) that energy, at top spots that can focus the swell, will double in size (and sometimes go even bigger). So 2-3’ of deepwater swell at the 17-18 second period range can potentially be a 6-7’ wave-face at those focal breaks.



Winds are forecast to start out light and variable through the morning…I would still expect a little bit of funkiness to the really open breaks but in general it will be cleaner than the last couple of days. W winds will get a jump on it by midmorning and will eventually top out near 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

I think that the points and reefs of San Diego and OC will be the best call on Wednesday…they will have the most size, the most consistency, and since the winds are forecast to back off they should have a bit cleaner conditions than early this week. I think that it may be worth driving a little further than you usually do to try and score a few bigger sets but I still wouldn’t waste a ton of gas…there will still be plenty of playful surf at the SW facing standouts in the other areas as well (just not as big). Beach breaks will still be a bit walled up…and the ones that have some cross up swell to break up the bigger SW lines may have a bit too much water moving around (that isn’t explaining it very well…just think of being a little too jumbled up but without a lot of wind on it).

Monday’s Surf – Back to the grind.

Man this is the latest post ever…you will probably all be reading it early Monday…oh well at least you had the San-O break map to keep you busy.

Monday will be a surf day but it is going to suffer under the same set of slightly sub-par conditions that we had over the weekend. Namely increasing onshore winds that get an early jump and keeps things pretty sloppy through most of the day.

In the water our new SW swell (that arrived on Sunday from 200-220) will continue to push through and mix with some local very-short-period WNW windswell. Most spots will continue to see waist-chest high+ surf while the standout SW facing spots like those in Orange County and San Diego see some shoulder-overhead sets.

Winds are forecast to come onshore out of the NW fairly early…exactly how early is the question. There is always a chance at a small pocket of cleanliness forming for the first couple of hours in the morning…you get sort of a dead wind period as the temperature change between the earth and the ocean equalizes for a short time. It isn’t always clean but it at least has the potential to be. Check it early if the wind isn’t blowing get on it because it will onshore 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

San Diego and OC points and reefs will be the call again on Monday. There will be some fun waves at the point/reefs in the other areas (well except Santa Barbara)…but they will be smaller, less consistent, and lacking the punch you will see in the southern areas. I don’t think that it will be worth a ton of driving for surf through…the winds, and the fact that you will have to load up on an already crowded spot to get decent waves sort of lets the air out of driving too far. Personally I am going to check the cameras in the morning and see if there is enough windswell to break up the lovely walled section that has been down the beach in HB for the last week. (I am not holding my breath).

Oh on a completely random note and as a warning...I got to see Kung-Fu Panda for father’s day (well my 3-year old son and I got to see Kung-Fu Panda)…and I have to say…it was a pretty good flick, especially if you used to dig Saturday Night Kung-Fu Theater like I used to as a kid. I will probably be using obscure kung-fuisms and typing in broken english for the next several posts. (not that my written english isn't anything that I don't normally break).

Weekend Waves - Even more SW swell (yeah for swell!)

Saturday and Sunday will both be surf days.

Saturday is going to see a mix of steady SW swell (190-220) and some background local NW windswell. Most spots will continue to see chest-shoulder high surf while the standouts in Orange County and San Diego see shoulder-head high+ waves.

Sunday there will actually be another SW pulse (200-220) joining the mix, overlapping the existing SW swell, all of which will blend with the background NW windswell. Sunday expect a touch more size as the average exposed breaks build into chest-head high surf and the standout SW facing breaks move back into the consistent head high and overhead ranges.

Weather and winds look very similar to Friday...expect mostly light/variable to light S winds and overcast skies through the mornings and W-NW winds around 10-15 knots (along with sunny skies) during the afternoons. Depending on how strong wind circulation is throughout the day, you may see the wind lay down really late in the afternoon/evening...not enough for a glass-off but worth keeping an eye on if you live close to the beach.

SW facing points and reefs will be the best call this weekend...(if the beach breaks had a chance it was on Friday but the ones in my neck of the woods never really started working all that well...just a lot of lumpy closed out lefts and super short rights through the wind creases). South Orange County and North San Diego will see the biggest sizes...and probably the best shape thanks to all those quality points and reefs they have around those areas. There will be some decent waves at the top SW facing spots in other areas but expect the surf to be smaller and less consistent.

I would try and get on it early...both to avoid the crowd factor and to try and beat the wind that has been screwing up the shape by midday. Spots with a little protection from the southerly winds will probably be a safer call than the wide-open breaks...just so you can avoid the eddy texture if the winds spin up too much overnight.

Have a great weekend and an excellent Father's Day!

(oh and check back I will be posting the San Onofre Break Maps this weekend)