Monday, July 19, 2010

Tuesday’s Surf – S-SW swell on the rise…I think I see the eddy lurking in the bushes

Tuesday will definitely see an increase in surf…but stronger winds in the outer waters will start to creep up, possibly spinning up our coastal eddy enough to add some texture/funkiness to our exposed spots.

Our new S-SW swell (190-215) has been slowly increasing on the buoys throughout the day here on Monday and probably even managed to put a few bigger sets into the select spots before sunset. The stronger part of the swell is starting to arrive right now…check out the buoy list…there are a lot of 18-20 second stuff showing all of a sudden.

You can check out the live version of this list here….

On Tuesday we can expect the S-SW swell (190-215) to start to peak…at this point it looks like the biggest part of the swell will arrive late Tuesday afternoon/evening and then peak overnight into early Wednesday morning. This swell will be mixing with some smaller leftover S-SSW swells, and some fluky WNW-NW windswell. Look for the bigger S-SW swell to fill in through the morning…with the biggest surf arriving later in the day.

Sizewise…the average S-SW facing spots…and a few of the better S exposed combo spots will have some chest-head surf with a few inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. The standout SSW-SW facing spots and the excellent combo spots, mostly in South OC, a few parts of North OC, as well as a few other scattered breaks with some good exposure, will have surf running consistently shoulder-head high+ with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead. Try and keep in mind that the tides and occasional wind-funkiness will hamper the shape and consistency...the biggest and the best waves will show on the tide push and through the periods with the cleanest conditions.

Winds are look sort of marginal…there is a bit of an eddy, but neither the NWS or the COAMPS wind models are calling for it to be very strong during the morning. If things cool off enough tonight, or we get the high-pressure to move in a little early…then we will have a chance for some lighter winds through the morning…but as it is I would expect at least a little onshore wind and texture. Current forecast models are calling for light/variable to light/onshore flow for breaks in Santa Barbara down through Los Angeles. The same models are showing a bit more of light/variable/southerly flow early…with some increasing eddy texture building in by mid-morning. Most spots will have W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

It sure would have been nice to have the sunny skies and light winds to hold long enough for this swell to arrive, but Mother Nature has a pretty sick sense of humor sometimes (like when good sized S swells arrive). With the swell having some size…and the windswell not really having enough pep to break it up…I think that the points and reefs are going to be the best call on Tuesday, most of the beach breaks are going to be pretty lined up as well as see a lovely current to fight against. (or float along with…which is usually how well I do against them). Also, I think we are going to see a little inconsistency on the big sets earlier in the day…but things should fill in as the swell continues to fill in. Expect some good size from this swell to hold overnight into Wednesday.

Here are the tides…happy hunting, let me know if you get any good ones.

07/20/2010 Tuesday
12:36AM LDT 0.3 L
07:00AM LDT 3.1 H
11:09AM LDT 2.4 L
05:48PM LDT 5.6 H


greg said...

no wind in north LA this morning. it was really clean and some great waves came through, they were just inconsistent. wind didn't really pick up too much when i left around 10.

Anonymous said...

Newport clean and overhead, i hear wedge...stirring