Monday, July 5, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/05/2010

Forecast Overview
- The S swell will start to slowly back down on Tuesday, but still keep solid surf showing at the standouts. Winds look pretty crappy though.
- Wednesday the S swell will continue to back down and we will continue to have more funky winds
- Thursday the S swell fades even more but manages to send in some playful surf and yes the winds still look crappy .
- Friday our S swell will drop to mostly leftovers while the winds look slightly better for a few areas…overall it still won’t be that good.
- Smaller surf and some cleaner conditions on tap for the long range…smaller waves isn’t what we want to hear…but at least it doesn’t look completely flat.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (still solid S swell with more crappy wind)
The S swell (175-190) will be dropping slowly throughout the day on Tuesday while the NW windswell pulses up slightly in the background. The S swell will still show some solid size on Tuesday…so you can still expect plenty of waves. Average S facing spots will be in the chest-head high range on the sets with some overhead and even overhead+ waves occasionally popping up on the lower tides. The stand S facing spots, mostly through OC, will have shoulder-head high+ surf fairly consistently with sets still going a couple of feet overhead on those lower tides. Winds/Weather: The winds aren’t looking very good for Tuesday. Onshore flow, set up by a low-pressure over Northern California, will be on tap for the morning…pushing 5-10 knot W-SW winds through most of our areas and a few small pockets of S-SSW winds across OC and San Diego. LA County looks like it will have the cleanest morning conditions. W winds 10-15 knots will blow through the afternoon.

Wednesday - (S swell fades and the wind is still questionable)
The S swell (175-190) will continue to back down on Wednesday while NW windswell continues to hold in the background. The surf will finally make a more noticeable drop on Wednesday as the S swell trails off…still there will be some decent sized surf at the well exposed spots. Most S facing breaks will be in the waist-shoulder high range on the sets. Standout S facing spots will see chest-head high surf with still a few overhead sets mixing in through the morning. Winds/Weather: The winds will still be a bit fugly on Wednesday…but the current forecasts are calling for them to come onshore a bit lighter. At this point it looks like the morning will have some W-WSW winds around 5-6 knots…with lighter flow through Orange County, Los Angeles, and North San Diego. W winds around 12-15 knots return through the afternoon.

Thursday (what the hell…stupid wind)
Our surf continues to drop on Thursday as the bigger S swell (175-185) begins to fade to mostly leftover energy. There will still be some rideable size but our local winds are forecast to continue to hamper conditions. Look for most S facing spots to see surf in the waist-chest high range with some rare chest-shoulder high sets showing at the more exposed breaks. Standout S facing spots will be in the waist-shoulder high range with a few head high waves still sneaking in through the morning. Winds/Weather: Looks like W-NW winds around 5-knots will be on tap through the morning. These winds will strengthen fast and by 10am it looks like 8-10 knots…maybe stronger in a few areas. Look for NW winds around 12-18 knots by late in the day.

Friday – (fading away, winds are still tweaky)
The last of the S swell (175-185) will arrive as the energy continues to trail off through Friday. WNW-NW windswell build up slightly in the background but mostly it stays pretty marginal. S facing spots will be in the waist high range with inconsistent chest high sets. Standout S facing breaks will still manage some waist-chest high+ surf on inconsistent sets…along with some shoulder-high+ waves on really inconsistent sets. Winds/Weather: The NW winds are forecast to stick around through Friday…but it looks like they might be fairly light early in the morning, even turning slightly more N for spots in OC and North LA. Overall we can expect light NW winds around 3-5 knots with a couple of pockets hitting 5-7 knots at times.


North Pacific
The NPAC is still pretty boring…we can expect some pulses of windswell to creep in throughout the week. Nothing that is really worthy of calling it a rideable swell…but possibly enough to break up the S swell as it drops later this week.

There is one little low-pressure worth watching that forms over the upcoming weekend. It isn’t very intense but it is stronger and better positioned than anything we have seen for the last several weeks. It even generates some halfway decent sea-state on the forecast models…

If it can live up to forecasts we might see a little blip of NW swell (290-300) heading our way for the 13-14th of July…it won’t be much more than waist high, even at the top spots, but it nice to see a little activity is this part of the Pacific.

South Pacific
The big S swell hit on Sunday and is holding here on will start to back down on Tuesday and will continue to slowly wind down through the end of the week. Thanks to a couple of fronts that followed the big one, this swell has some extra energy trailing the peak of the swell…which means we will see good sized surf holding through Wednesday, playful surf through Friday, and likely some rideable waves through at least Saturday.

Further out…the SPAC was a bit quiet and disorganized after that big storm slammed through, but it did manage to set up some weaker areas of fetch as smaller storms swirled in the wake of the stronger system. These weak fetches will be pushing up some overlapping pulses of S-SW swell as we head into Sunday (July 11th) and then holding through the middle of July. Nothing looks particularly strong or noteworthy…but we can expect some waist-chest high waves at the better exposed spots and even a few shoulder high sets at the standouts as these small swells filter through next week.

Even further out there is a decent sized-storm forecast to form down in our SSW-SW swell window in about 5-6 days. At the same time it looks like another tropical system is going to form to the north of New Zealand...

It looks like there is a good shot at a bunch of this tropical energy could bridge over to the bigger/colder storm down closer to Antarctica, which would really increase wind-speeds and kick the storm into a different gear. I don’t think the wavewatchIII wave model is doing a great job showing the increase in intensity on the swell-height images…but I have a feeling this will change in a few days as we get closer to this storm forming.

At this point…if this storm forms…we would be looking at a chest-head high SSW-SW swell heading our way for July 22-23rd…possibly a little bigger at a few of the standout SW spots.

The tropics are pretty quiet again…still nothing expected to brew up over the next couple of days.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, July 8th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

No comments: