Monday, June 7, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/07/2010

Forecast Overview
Overlapping S-SW swells and June Gloom will be the most dominant features over the next few days…fortunately while we do have some S winds they won’t be super strong until later in the week. (Cross your fingers that the eddy flow will drive in some warmer water). The S-SW swells will back down a touch on Thursday and Friday…but WNW-NW windswell will move in to replace the dropping SPAC swell. More Southern hemi swell will move in again over the weekend (and early next week).

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (more S-SW swell and NW windswell along with some eddy for flavor)
S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to peak on Tuesday…holding in part to a new S-SW pulse that moves in to reinforce the first swell. NW windswell will also continue to hold in the background. Most S-SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and San Diego, will be in the chest-head high range with some occasionally bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The eddy spins up again on Tuesday and we see full June gloom continue. Look for variable onshore flow, mostly out of the S-SW for OC and SD, and more W-NW for LA and Ventura. Winds should be below 5 knots for the morning but will have enough speed to crumble things up at exposed spots. W-WNW winds 10-14 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.

Wednesday – (June gloom and more So Hemi swell)
More S-SSW swell (180-200) arrives to mix with the S-SW swell (180-210) and the background NW windswell. Most S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some overhead sets showing at the standout S-SW breaks. Winds/Weather: The overcast skies and light S-SW winds will continue for most areas on Wednesday. Look for onshore crumble/texture at the more exposed spots but with winds in the 5-6 knot range. W-WNW winds around 10-14 knots will push in later in the afternoon.

Thursday – (Sloppy)
The S-SW swell (180-210) will start to wind down on Thursday while the NW windswell will start to increase. Most S-SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the sets, while the standout breaks see shoulder-head high+ sets through the morning…and progressively smaller/less consistent surf by the afternoon. The standout NW windswell spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range by the end of the day…with some of the South SD spots hitting head high as the swell begins to peak in the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Thursday looks a bit sloppy thanks to increasing eddy winds along the coast and strong NW winds hitting along the outer waters. Look for S-SW flow around 6-8+ knots for the morning and then W-WNW winds around 12-15+ knots for the afternoon.

Friday – (Cleaning up…well sort of)
Windswell switches more WNW-NW (285-300) and continues to hold onto some lumpy size on Friday while the S-SW swell mix fades to mostly leftover in the background. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the better NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks see some shoulder-head high+ sets. Shape will be a bit mixed up since the windswell is pretty short-period (6-10 seconds) and the Southern Hemi swell stays pretty small. Winds/Weather: The eddy is supposed to blow itself out on Friday…lightening up the morning winds into the 0-5 knot range, but keeping a southerly tint to it. Afternoon winds shift to the W-WNW and stay in the 10-15 knot range for most of the second half of the day.


North Pacific
Still a few storms spinning around in the NPAC but nothing that looks all that exciting for Southern California. There is one system that bears watching over the next few days…this storm tracks across the mid-latitudes fairly rapidly and eventually impacts the central Coast of California around Thursday.

The current forecast has this storm moving too fast to do much swell production before arriving along the west coast…but it does show that it enhances the WNW-NW winds moving down the coast as it arrives…which will be what drives up our local windswell during the second half of the week. The larger windswell waves only really last for Thursday night and into early Friday before fading into this coming weekend. Not much on tap after that…just background local windswell for most of next week.

South Pacific
The current run of S-SW swells will hold for the rest of this week and on into the upcoming weekend…but I am starting to see a bit of a gap in the SPAC storm track that could mean smaller surf as we head past the middle of June…fortunately that gap doesn’t seem very big…long-range charts are showing more stormy action brewing up in the SW portion of our swell window in about 6-7 days.

Look for a mix of closely packed S-SW swells to arrive throughout the week…hitting on the 8-9th…the 11-12th and again on the 13th. None of these look super strong, but since they are all piling on top of one another they will be able to blend some of the energy together, producing more consistent, and sometimes larger sets. Most of this week we can expect chest-shoulder high surf at the average S-SW facing spots and consistent head high sets and occasionally overhead waves at the standout breaks.

Further out…as you can see above there is a noticeable gap (right around 120w-170w in longitude) in the bright red meatballs of SPAC storms. There is still some activity brewing up for Central America and Mainland Mexico (and South America) but there aren’t any storms in the sweet spot for Southern California…fortunately that new red over by New Zealand is going to push over and intensify after it moves out into the wider open ocean…so the wave machine will probably kick back into gear around the end of June…possibly the 19-20th if this lines up properly. Obviously this still a few days from we will have to wait and see how it breaks loose.

No new tropical systems expected for the next couple of days.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 10th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

No comments: