Travel Update: Another SW’er for Central America and Mainland Mex

I was just looking at the SPAC charts and there is another string of SW swells (190-220), with one bigger pulse of SW right in the middle, heading to Central America and Mainland Mexico.

These swells start arriving in the area around the 9th…with one swell peaking on the 11-12th and another peaking on the 13-14th.

The first swell is already in the water…you can see the fetch nice and clear on the quikSCAT…



The second and third swells are forming over the next 48-72 hours, and I have seen them on the charts for a few days so I think they are fairly credible at this point. Check ‘em out on the Wavewatch-III swell period graphic.



Sizewise…the first pulse that arrives on the 9th looks good for chest-head high waves for most of the average areas…a few of the standouts will have some bigger sets but it won’t be huge or anything. Just a fun, warm water, early season swell.

The second and third swells (which really blend into a single big pulse of SW swell) start arriving on the 11th…but really peak more from the 12-14th and then trail off very slowly after that. These swells look good for consistent head high to overhead surf for most of the average spots. The top spots will have sets going a couple of feet overhead on the biggest waves…and the deepwater spots, like Puerto, will see some sets nearing double overhead (but probably not quite getting there).

Socal will see much, much, smaller versions of these swells arriving on the 11th and then again on the 14-16th. It will be closer to chest-shoulder high at the average spots around Socal…with some bigger waves showing in OC and parts of San Diego. Also if you look at the swell-period chart again…it looks like a little long-period WNW will be showing around that time too. So there is a chance at some playful waves…much smaller, colder, and less consistent playful waves…for those of us that can’t make the trip.

Hope some of you can sneak away…as always I love to see pictures and get reports if you do head down that way.

Swell Alert Update - The SW'er is on its way

I was just going over some of the satellite to check up on the new SSW swell that will be hitting all along the coastline from California down through Central America later this week...and things are looking pretty good.

I feel like I need to issue a GEEK WARNING for what I am about to write...so if you are offended by semi-scientific terms, already have a headache, or just set down the bong and don't feel thinking that hard you might just want to skip ahead a little bit.

Start of Geek Area ---------------

In particular I was looking at the Altimetry data from the JASON-1 satellite, which uses several forms of specialized radar and sensing equipment to detect some tiny changes in things like water vapor and sea surface height. This thing is so precise that it can measure how-fast and what-direction water vapor is blowing which allows it to measure wind speeds and directions with some amazing accuracy.

This precision sort of comes at a compromise...you can only measure a limited amount of area with each satellite pass, which isn't that bad if you aren't concerned with hour-by-hour changes in atmospheric and ocean conditions...but unfortunately we are. If you check out the chart below you can see what I mean.



Mark Sponsler over at www.Stormsurf.com was super generous (Thanks Mark!) and let me use this chart from his site. (use this link if you ever want to check out the live altimetry data http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html )

This chart has a lot going on, it is actually a blend of JASON data (the long curving lines are its satellite passes) and the NOAA WavewatchIII wave model (the colored wave heights that you are probably used too already). The JASON data is represented by numbers so it gives you the sea heights in feet. It is hard to read the numbers but if you zoom in enough with your browser you can sort of make them out.

So for check on this swell I like to look at the sea heights outside of the storm area...usually a few days after the storm has already produced the swell. If the swell is big enough and If you watch for increased sea-heights in areas where local winds are less likely to create the effect you can track the swell almost with the heights alone. Check out the area that I was focusing on.



In particular I was looking at this spot...


I think my eyes are going...

This little area is showing the spot where the swell is currently moving...it particular it is showing how much energy was actually pushed toward California compared to what is heading toward Mexico/Central America. 10-12' sea heights in this region is a good size...not huge...but still very nice to see since we are almost in November. The deepwater SW swell probably only accounts for about half to a third of those 10-12' sizes, the rest is made up by tradewind swell. This swell is forecast to make it with nearly 3' of deepwater swell at 17-18 seconds when it finally arrives in SoCal and NorCal, which means overhead+ waves for the top breaks.

Anyway I thought I would actually show you the "satellite" that I use...really just so you don't think I am just a first class space-cadet and making up random things that don't really exist. (I am still a spaz obviously). Hopefully no one's head hurts now...mine sort of does.

End GEEK area ----------


Just to rehash the previous update...it won't be a huge SSW swell for SoCal but it will definitely be sending us some surf. Mainland Mexico and Central America look the biggest so if you can find a cheap ticket it will be worth getting down to an exposed break.

Check out the first post I did on this swell last week...the sizes and arrival times are going to stay the same.

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2008/10/travel-alert-and-waves-for-socal-south.html

Make sure to check out stormsurf.com when you get a chance.

Travel Alert (and Waves for SoCal) - South Pacific Brewing up a new SSW swell

Over the last couple of days we have had a nice looking storm has pull together down in the South Pacific that will be sending out a new SSW-SW swell for Southern California, Baja Mexico, Mainland Mexico, and Central America that will hit during the second half of next week. (Oct 22-25th depending on Location).



Satellite passes recorded 40-45+ knot winds and seas in the 30-35 foot range, which is fairly decent by storm strength but not super intense overall. (Don't get me wrong I would still poop myself if I was caught in a boat in the middle of this...but it isn’t really that strong of a storm from a weather perspective).

Fortunately the storm has some good duration, a large fetch, a decent storm track, and was positioned so that its swell doesn't have to pass through the South Pacific Island Shadow, all of which are good things from a surf standpoint. Also since it is a little late in the SPAC swell season it is worth mentioning when a better SSW swell is heading our way.



The majority of this new swell will be heading towards Mainland Mexico and Central America but both Baja and Southern California should have plenty of fun waves from this swell as it peaks. Here is how it will break down.

Mainland Mexico & Central America

Since the swell is pretty SW (210-225) for these areas it hits about the same time across the region. Look for new long-period SW energy to start pushing in on Wednesday Oct 22 but with the peak of the swell hitting on Thursday-Friday 23-24th and then slowly backing over the following weekend. As this swell hits we can expect most SW exposed breaks to see consistent overhead surf while the standout spots see sets going several feet overhead at times. Deepwater spots may see bigger sets as well.

Baja Sur

The SW'er hits about the same time it does in Mainland Mexico but it won't have the same sort of wave heights. Look for some energy to start pushing through exposed breaks on the 22nd but the peak of the swell hitting the 23-24th and then a slow fade starting on the 25th. This swell will primarily hit the Pacific Side areas with the average exposed areas seeing shoulder-head high+ surf and the standout exposed spots seeing overhead+ sets.

Southern California

The SSW swell (190-205) has to push up a little further to reach SoCal so we can expect the swell arrival to be a bit later and the wave heights to be smaller that the other areas. Look for the long-periods to start arriving through the day on the 23rd and the peak of the swell hitting Oct 24-25th. Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standouts, mostly in Orange County and San Diego, will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with inconsistent overhead sets at the top breaks. Even though SoCal will be a bit smaller that other areas on just this SSW swell, there is a good chance that we will have some WNW swell moving in about the same time...nothing huge, but enough to combo up the SSW'er, which is always nice.

Random SW Swell Alert – The South Pacific is heating up!

We have a new storm setting up an overhead+ SW swell for Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Northern Central America. (After it smacks Tahiti along the way naturally). The same storm will be sending a smaller, but still healthy, version of the SW swell to Hawaii and California.

(if you just want the swell details…skip this next part…seriously if you don’t you will just get pissed at my rambling)

After a couple week hiatus it looks like the South Pacific is finally starting to get its act together. It has been a slow couple of weeks so it will be nice to have some more juice showing out in the line-up. This last gap between storms (translation total lack of significant Southern Hemi swell) that we have just had is actually fairly normal for the SPAC.

When you look at the big picture you start to see that most of the storm/wind/wave energy in the Southern Ocean (the band of ocean that circulates around Antarctica) moves in a west-to-east pattern…forecasters generally refer to this a “zonal flow”. Unfortunately we need a storm that breaks out of the zonal pattern, trying to change its latitude, and in the process sets up fetch that is aimed toward our regions. This happens quite a bit but not always in a location that is ideal for sending us surf (like on the other side of Australia, or up next to South America).

A sort of dumb analogy for the process is to picture the South Pacific as a pot of boiling water with the storms being the bubbles that boil to the surface…but only way cooler because when a bubble forms in the right spot it sends us a good swell.

Anyway there are a couple of triggers that cause these “bubble” storms to form…and they almost always involve some sort of energy transfer from a warm-weather area to a cold-weather area. A particularly violent example of this is when you get warm tropical moisture that moves into the cooler upper-latitudes. This process is generally called a tropical based storm (or air-mass) going “extra-tropical”. I could totally bore you with the physics behind latent-heat energy in water…but then my brain would hurt all weekend…so just trust me when I say that there is a lot of energy in tropical moisture…and as the air-mass carrying it cools that energy needs to go somewhere. And it does…usually in the form of strong winds in a bad-ass storm.

I can already hear you out there…”gee Adam that is great but tell us about the swell already weather-nerd!”

Hahaha…jerks. I actually wanted to bring the process to your attention because it is just this “extra-tropical” process that is setting up this next swell.

Here I made a cool chart!



On the chart you can actually see two low-pressures. One is a tropical system and the other a colder mid-latitude low. If you follow the numbers you see the tropical system take a slow dive towards Antarctica…and in the process it expels a ton of energy as it cools. This energy tries to spread out but instead is gathered in by the following storm system.

By slide #5 the cold storm, which is moving in a great direction for all of our surf spots, has jumped in intensity, likely it would have had about 30-40 knots of wind in the core but now, thanks to being jumpstarted by the extra-tropical system, it is seeing winds closer to 60-65 knots (which is the lower end of the wind speeds in the CAT1 Hurricane category). Basically the storm has jumped from being an average to below average swell maker to a good-swell producer.

To cap it off the cold storm continues to push the good area of fetch into the lower latitudes and sort of seals the deal on the swell energy heading towards Mainland Mexico. Anyway…just thought I would share some of the mechanics behind this next swell.

OK Finally the swell details (the hungover may continue reading now)

Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America – There is actually plenty of smaller swells sending in surf to this region right now. So if you are down there or planning on going down there you will have some fun-sized overhead surf while you are waiting for the bigger SW’er to arrive. This swell that I was just talking about will actually start to arrive with long-period energy on the 19th and then peak on the 20-21st. Most breaks will build into the shoulder-overhead+ range with sets going 2-3’ overhead+ at times. Deepwater breaks will be closer to double-overhead on the big sets.

Baja Sur Mexico – The SW swell (210-220) is actually pretty westerly in swell angle so it hits Baja Sur about the same time it moves into Mainland Mex. Most pacific side spots will see this swell start to hit later on the 19th…but it really fills in more on the 20th and eventually peaks into the 21st. Look for lots of shoulder-head high waves at the well exposed areas. Standout spots will have some bigger sets...but expect some inconsistency at times.

Southern California – The SW swell moves in on the 20th, actually following a small playful one that hits around the 17-18th. This new bigger SW’er (200-220) ends up peaking on the 21st and into the 22nd. Due to a little shadowing from the South Pacific it won’t be as big or consistent as the other regions. We can still expect the average breaks to be around waist-shoulder high. Standout spots, mostly in North San Diego and Southern Orange County, will have some bigger head high+ sets at times. NOTE: The forecast for SOCAL has be REVISED...please see this post for the more current details.

Hawaii – There is a good portion of fetch heading toward the islands…so we will actually see decent sized S swell arrive on the South Shores around the 16th…and eventually peaking on the 17-18th. This one looks good for shoulder-overhead faces with sets going 1-2’+ overhead as the swell peaks at the top breaks.

As usual I will give some updates on this swell as it gets closer…particularly if size or timing needs adjusting…so check back for more details.

SW Swell Alert – UPDATE 2! (Update Dos!)

I was just giving the forecast maps a quick once over this afternoon and thought I would give a shout out on this SW’er that we have coming in this week.

Things are still looking solid. As I said in previous posts Mainland Mex and Northern Central America will be the biggest but most of Central America, Baja, and California will have some consistently overhead (and overhead+) surf from this one too.

For the most part California is looking good…but we may have some wind problems starting to develop as the swell starts to hit…particularly in the afternoons (what a shocker!). It is not enough to worry about at this point but something to keep in mind as you plan your surf sessions for later in the week.

SoCal (and most of the other areas as well) are actually going to get back to back swells this week. The first one is already starting to arrive for many of the Central America regions. Mexico, Baja, and SoCal will have it fill in more on Tuesday/Wednesday. This one should be playful but will definitely lack in size compared to the swell later in the week. I will have more “specific” details for SoCal in normal update in a couple of hours.

Finally one last look at the ultra long-range and it looks like we could actually see another good-sized SW swell heading our way for the first week of April…man I hope that we aren’t using up all of our S-SW swells early in the season…it would be nice to have a few of these roll through when the water is warm enough to trunk it.

If you need wave heights and arrival times make sure to read my previous posts

Post #1 - SW Swell Alert: More SW swell heading to California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America

Post #2 - SW Swell Alert: UPDATE – Still looking good...lots of SW swell on the way

SW Swell Alert: UPDATE – Still looking good...lots of SW swell on the way

I was just going over all of the forecast data and satellite information (so you don’t have too…you slackers!).

Anyway it is still looking good…no real adjustments to make to the forecast at this point. It is still looking very sizeable for Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America…and Baja and SoCal will be going overhead as it peaks in those regions as well.

Check out the first Swell Alert for details on swell arrival times and sizes for each region.

Post #1 - SW Swell Alert: More SW swell heading to California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America

SW Swell Alert: More SW swell heading to California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America

The straight dope
There is another large S-SW swell pushing out of the South Pacific and it will be arriving along Californian, Mexican, and Central American surf spots next week.

We have about 7-8 days before the swell hits so you still have time to schedule vacation, by a plane ticket, kiss the wife/kids/dog goodbye, and go and score some surf in warm water.

If you are locked into work, family, or lack of funds, don’t sweat it too much…there will be plenty of swell moving into Southern California. In fact it will be very similar to that run of S swell that we had hit at the end of February and hold into March…so there is a good chance that you will be able to score at home too.


The Nitty Gritty Details
Maybe it is global warming, maybe it is just a good weather cycle for the south pacific, or maybe we have just hit some sort of cosmic jackpot for storm production…whatever the cause we have gotten a couple of heavy storms pushing through the SPAC already this late-winter/early-spring season, and this latest storm is looking pretty good too.





Anyway this storm is already cranking with 50-60 knots of wind and it has a very good movement track. Basically it is heading right towards Mainland Mexico, with areas of decent fetch spilling over to send surf towards Baja, Central America, and California.

Below are some of the numbers that have already been recorded...



And here is the forecasted wave heights from NOAA’s wavewatchIII. It is hard to tell, because NOAA for some reason has all their colors in relaxing tones, but there is nearly 33-35’ waves in the core of the storm. (You have got to love the government nothing like trying make people feel comfortable and mellow about life threatening conditions...way to go guys!)





Wave heights and Arrival Times
The swell is well positioned to send waves to a lot of areas and it mostly arrives around the same time…but there are a few differences in size and arrival times as you move from region to region. So here they are broken out by area….

Central America: Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama
The SW’er (210-225) moves into the region late on the 25th, builds in more on the 26th and peaks the 26th-27th. At the well exposed breaks look for surf consistently going overhead to several feet overhead. Expect bigger sets at the more northern countries (closer to Mexico)…and expect a little big smaller and less consistent surf along southern Costa Rica, and Panama thanks to shadowing by the Galapagos islands and other factors.

Mainland Mexico
The SW swell (205-220) starts hitting on the 26th and peaks on the 27th. The swell is aimed almost directly at this region so expect some pretty large surf for the more exposed areas. Most spots will see surf in the well-overhead range while standouts will hit the double-overhead+ mark. Deepwater breaks like Puerto Escondido and other areas that can focus this type of swell will have sets topping out close to triple overhead (15’ faces).

Southern Baja, (Baja Sur Mexico)
The SW’er looks very strong in this area as well. Expect the SW swell (200-215) to hit on March 26th and then peak on the 27-28th. Waves at exposed breaks will hold around shoulder-high to overhead most of the time while the standout spots see sets going several feet overhead. This looks good for both Pacific side and Tip of Baja spots…so you get to take your pick. The more protected points along the Pacific side will be a little smaller than the more exposed reefs and beach breaks but still expect plenty of fun surf.

Southern California and Northern Baja
The SW swell (185-210+) arrives late on the 26th (as really loooong period energy) and then builds through the 27th, eventually peaking overnight into the 28th. We can expect surf in the shoulder-head high range for most S-facing spots while the standouts, mostly in Orange County and parts of San Diego, see sets going overhead to a couple of feet overhead as the swell peaks. Cross your fingers and maybe we will get some WNW cross up swell too! (Note: Many of the more southern areas of northern Baja will see more of this swell on the 27th).

Northern and Central California
The S-SW swell finally pushes into NorCal on the 27th before it peaks well into the 28th and overnight into the 29th. This swell will still have plenty of energy as it moves into the region so we can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the summer spots while a few of the Santa Cruz and Central Coast standouts see some head high sets.


Good Luck…I hope I gave you enough time to score some waves (particularly with warm water). Send me some pictures…I love to see people ripping (or just really rad waves).

Make sure to check back I will have more updates as we get closer to the swell arriving.

Random Swell Alert: UPDATE! (part ménage-a-three)

Just wanted to give one last update on this swell. Things are still looking nice and solid for the Mexico and Central America regions.

I did want to slightly revise the Baja Norte and Southern California forecasts for this swell. At this point it looks like the swell has a lot of long-period energy in it so it looks like the peak of the swell will arrive a bit more on the 12th than the 13th.

Wave heights will still be the same but I am not expecting wave heights at the S facing spots to come up fairly fast on Wednesday the 12th, start peaking in the afternoon and then holding into sundown. Thursday will still have plenty of size but the we should be past the peak of the swell and wave heights/consistency and energy will be slowly fading by the end of the day.

Make sure to read the other posts concerning this swell…especially post #1 (it has all the juicy wave heights in it).

Post #1 – Random Swell Alert: S-SW swell for SoCal, Baja, Mainland Mexico, Central America
Post #2 - Random Swell Alert: UPDATE!
Post #3 - Random Swell Alert: UPDATE! (part deux)

Here is one more picture of the swell…this is showing the peak swell periods as this one starts to arrive. You can see that it is mixing with a WNW swell (more combo swell fun!). This image is forecast for late night on the 11th so expect the swell to be coming up on the 12th.

Random Swell Alert: UPDATE (part deux)

Things are still looking good for that S-SW swell for next week. It is still on track to send some large surf to Central America/Mainland Mexico and some decent, fun-sized waves to Baja and Southern California.

If you bought tickets to the warm Central American waters you are going to get some great waves (and my eternal jealousy you lucky dogs).

Make sure to read the other posts concerning this swell…especially post #1 (it has all the juicy wave heights in it).

Post #1 – Random Swell Alert: S-SW swell for SoCal, Baja, Mainland Mexico, Central America
Post #2 - Random Swell Alert: UPDATE!

Extra-Geeky Information (if thinking makes you brain hurt skip this section)

Now that the swell is a few days from arriving in the various regions it is starting to show nicely on many of the swell models. Here is a great shot of the swell showing on the Navy’s WaveWatchIII model…




What is nice about this image is that it is showing increase wave heights in the lower latitudes of the South Pacific…and that those wave heights match up with the swell movement/tracking of this S-SW swell.

Generally when you see increase wave heights on a swell model like this you are actually seeing “increased sea-state” which is all the waves and nastiness that is taking place underneath a storm. When that storm moves away or dissipates you see the significant wave heights of that particular area drop…but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it didn’t create swell…lots of really good swells (from a surf generating perspective) are not very tall, particularly when they are in deep water. It is very possible to have a swell that is only 3-4’ high in deep water with 18- to 20-second swell periods, which means that it will likely generate 6-10’ of surf when it finally hits the beach.

Generally 3-4’ of swell height will barely register in a swell model like this. (This is mostly because these models are built with boating in mind and a 3-4’ swell doesn’t mean much to a ship in open water). Most times these swells will get lost in the normal “noise” of the ocean…things like trade-winds generate bigger wave heights all the time so it is easy to lose track of a smaller swell. So when you get a particularly large swell that has some solid wave heights in it you get a clearer picture of the swell as it moves through the ocean.

The fact that I can see, and attribute, the increased wave heights in an areas with much lighter winds (compared to the area where the swell was produced) to this swell moving through these latitudes is a great sign. It basically means there is enough energy in this swell to push sizeable significant-wave-heights far beyond the “fetch area” and that the swell will still have a lot of energy when it finally starts to generate surf next week.

This got way geekier than I intended…so I will apologize to anyone that just pulled a brain muscle. This is Friday and I should know better…

Random Swell Alert: UPDATE!

Warning this post is a little geeky…well actually it is really geeky. (But it has a pretty picture so that should make up for it.)

Things are looking good for that S-SW swell that is heading out to a ton of California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America breaks next week. (Click Here if you haven’t read that post).

The storm got nice an intense over the last couple of days…and we were lucky enough to have the weather satellites get some good passes over the system.

You saw the QUIKSCAT (the name of the satellite) winds showing 50+ knots in the storm core in the other post…but all that wind doesn’t mean much without it generating sizeable seas.

Well today we got a good pass from the Jason-1 satellite, that actually records sea-height…and it is showing 38-40’ seas in this storm…with a good portion of those seas along the side of the system that has been generating that S-SW swell.

Here is a good image from that satellite…



This image is from Stormsurf.com. Mark, who runs the site and is another one of the wavewatch forecasters, has done an amazing job putting together one of the most detail/data oriented forecast sites available. Make sure to check it out when you get a chance…you can find the Jason-1 data here.

What is doubley cool about this picture is that Mark has overlaid the Jason-1 data over the WaveWatchIII (NOAA’s swell model), so you can see if the “forecast” is living up to “reality”. In this case it is, which is nice for us because it means the swell is on the way!

Ok enough geekiness…basically what this comes down to is that the storm is still looking good and the swell that I was forecasting for next week is still on the way. Right now sizes look like what I was calling for in my first post.

Keep checking back I will have more updates on this swell as we get closer.

Random Swell Alert: S-SW swell for SoCal, Baja, Mainland Mexico, Central America

So I wanted to send out a heads up on this swell…maybe give a few of you a chance to plan a trip or two for spring break.

While I was checking out the long-range forecast this morning I noticed a nice little nugget of a storm cruising through the South Pacific. Here is a picture of it…



This storm, which has already started to form, will intensify over the next couple of days and in the process kick out a healthy S-SW swell for the areas of Southern California, Baja Mexico, Mainland Mexico, and the countries of Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama).

This system isn’t the biggest or the baddest that I have ever seen but it does have some good characteristics, which are its intensity and its movement. From an intensity standpoint it isn’t that strong…but it has some decent wind speeds (45-50 knots).

The movement of the system is what really does a lot of the heavy work. It moves at just the right speed so that the strongest part of the storm, (and the area of fetch that is setting up waves for all of these regions), sits right on top of the swell it has already created…so it basically moves along imparting more and more energy to the swell. We generally call this a “traveling fetch” which helps to artificially extend the length of fetch in the creation of the swell…sort of taking what would be a ok-moderate sized swell and making it a good sized one. It also helps to extend the width of the swell so it can affect such a wide range of regions.

Check out this picture…it sort of illustrates the “width of the swell” that I was talking about.



Anyway on to the good part…the waves

So this swell will hit almost every region within about 30 hours of each other…which is pretty typical of a swell with a SW swell angle.

Central America spots pick it up a touch sooner than other areas and can expect consistent 5-8’ faces at the average breaks…and some 10’ sets at the standout breaks. The swell starts filling in late on March 10th and peaks on March 11th in this region. Note there will be some shadowing by the Galapagos islands so Panama and Southern Costa Rica will be a bit smaller than other regions

Mainland Mexico will have this swell hit mostly on March 11th. Look for more consistent 5-8’ faces with bigger sets at SW facing breaks. Standout deepwater spots like Puerto Escondido will have sets going several feet bigger…probably closer to 10-12’+ on the faces.

Baja Sur the SW’er will move in on the 11th-12th peaking through both days. Looks like many spots will have 4-6’+ surf while standouts see 7-8’ faces. Pacific side spots will be the biggest…particularly the combo breaks thanks to a mix of WNW energy moving down the coast from a North Pacific storm.

Southern California and Baja Norte the swell will be smaller but still fun. The SW swell (185-210) arrives on the 12th but peaks into the 13th. Exposed areas will have shoulder-head high surf while the standout spots see some consistent head high and overhead sets. Forecasts are showing some decent WNW energy hitting our beaches about the same time so it looks like many spots could be bigger and more consistent than my conservative forecast.


If I had my way…and uh an unlimited amount of money (get clicking on those google-ads people!) I would probably be planning a trip to Nicaragua or El Salvador. The swell isn’t so big that it will max out anywhere…in fact a lot of the points could be very fun in both regions…and the winds are traditionally pretty good for both regions this time of year as well…and the water will be nice and warm...and the beer nice and cold. Man I need a vacation...

If any of you try and pull the trigger on this swell make sure to send me a note when you get back and tell me how it is.

Travel Alert: Baja Mexico

If you have been reading the blog, or the full forecasts over on wavewatch.com, you probably have read that SoCal is going to be getting a fun mix of WNW/SW swells over the next several days.

Well in this case, what is good for SoCal is going to be pretty good for Baja too…

Because we have series of WNW pulses and S-SW southern hemi swells arriving Wednesday through Monday, almost all of Baja is going to have some sort of surf as we move through the weekend and into early next week.

Most of the average breaks, (spots that only get one of the swell directions or just isn’t that great of a break) will be consistently in the chest-shoulder high+ range.

Standout spots, (good combo breaks and the “swell magnet” spots), will be in the shoulder-overhead range fairly consistently and see some sets going a couple of feet overhead as we see the swell combo peak on Thursday/Friday and again on Sunday/Monday.

Weather looks good for the region as well. Mostly light winds in the mornings with NW flow around 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoons.

Even the Tip of Baja (Cabo and the East Cape) will be getting some action from these swells. They will be a bit smaller because they are shadowed from a lot of the W-WNW energy but you will still see surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the average spots while the best standout breaks in the area see head high sets as the SW swells peak (one on Thursday and another on Sunday/Monday).

Tickets from LAX to Cabo are cheap right now…$273 roundtrip on Expedia.com! (if you left tomorrow Feb 28th and came back on Thursday March 6th).

But you don’t need to fly…there will be a ton of places to score waves within driving distance.

If I were single and didn't have to pay rent I would be on it...instead I need to live vicariously through you guys.

Let me know how it is if you head down that way...good luck!