Waves for the Weekend – Swells fades Saturday, fills in a touch on Sunday, and then bigger by Monday

All three weekend days will be surfable…but it looks like Sunday and Monday will be a bit cleaner (Sunday) and have more size (Monday) thanks to another round of S-SW swell pushing out of the Southern Hemisphere.

Saturday will start off with a bit of leftover fading S-SW swell and some slowly backing down NW windswell.



The average S facing spots and good combo breaks will be in the waist-high range with some rare bigger sets showing at times. The standout S facing breaks and excellent combo spots will be in the waist-chest high range with a few shoulder high sets as the morning tide pushes up.

Look for light winds through Saturday morning…a little onshore flow for Santa Barbara/Ventura…but lighter more variable winds for the LA on down through Orange County, and possibly a touch of Southerly texture in parts of San Diego.





Sunday will start off with mostly leftovers in the morning…backing off S-SW swell and some slowly increasing background NW windswell.



Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some waist high+ sets showing on the tide push. The top S facing breaks and the best combo spots will be more in the waist-chest high range with a few rare chest-shoulder high sets showing on that morning tide push.

By the afternoon a new long-period SSW-SW swell (190-210) will start to arrive…the initial energy isn’t very strong so I am not expecting a bunch of bigger waves arriving before sundown, but this new swell should help to get our surf a bit more consistent as it starts to fill in.

Winds look much better on Sunday…light and variable to light offshore for the morning for almost all areas. Look for these winds to hold on the light side up until midday and then turn around and build out of the W-NW around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.





Monday the new SSW-SW swell (190-210) will start to peak and will hold through the day. NW windswell will also be coming up a little bit…along with a touch of medium period NW energy from a storm that moves through the Gulf of Alaska this weekend.



Most spots will start to pulse up a bit…building into the waist-chest high range if they have some decent exposure to the SSW-SW swell…or can combo in the windswell. The standout SSW-SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and a few select areas in San Diego, will have chest-shoulder high surf with a few head high sets mixing in by the end of the day.

Winds, at this point, look ok for Monday…sort of variable to offshore and below 5 knots for the morning…but possibly a little funky NW flow spinning up around Santa Barbara. Looks like winds will stay light but add a touch of texture as the onshore flow builds in around midday. Stronger WSW-W-WNW winds (depending on where you are) will fill in around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.





Overall this weekend won’t be anything “spectacular” but it does look decent enough to go out and ride a few. To top it off the weather is going to finally break…warming way up compared to the last couple of days…hitting mid-upper 70s at the beaches (maybe warmer) and 90s inland.


I’m burning!

With that being said keep in mind that it is a holiday weekend and with the Inland Empire becoming a blast furnace everyone and their cousin/grandma/dog/cat/cactus/meth-lab (just kidding) is going to come to the beach. I am sure that it will be pretty crowded, blackball will go up pretty fast, and parking will probably be a nightmare.

Looking at it from that angle I think your best bet is going to be hitting the beach as early as possible…trying to take advantage of the the cleaner conditions and low tides. Expect the largest surf hitting the most exposed spots in Orange County and San Diego, with some scattered breaks doing ok in the other counties. Santa Barbara is going to stay on the small side…and North LA will also be a bit weaker thanks to interference from the nearshore islands and seamounts, so plan on weaker and less consistent surf for those areas.

Have a great weekend and a good Holiday. (A huge thank-you to all of the men and women in the Armed Services, past and present…stay safe and come home soon!)

Here are the tides…

05/29/2010 Saturday
05:17AM LDT -1.0 L
11:47AM LDT 3.6 H
04:17PM LDT 2.2 L
10:23PM LDT 5.7 H

05/30/2010 Sunday
05:58AM LDT -0.8 L
12:34PM LDT 3.5 H
04:58PM LDT 2.4 L
11:01PM LDT 5.4 H

05/31/2010 Monday (Memorial Day)
06:40AM LDT -0.4 L
01:24PM LDT 3.4 H
05:43PM LDT 2.6 L
11:40PM LDT 4.9 H

Surf for Tuesday – A little more SSW swell

Tuesday is looking like a surf day...nothing big or all that special...but with clean morning conditions and enough swell for us to go out and have some fun.

Swellwise we are going to have a new SSW swell (190-205) that will blend in with fading S-SW swell (180-200) from the weekend as well as some NW leftovers and background local windswell. You can see the older S-SW’er showing on this afternoon’s CDIP analysis...expect this to shift a little more to the southwest as the new swell fills in tomorrow.



Wave height for Tuesday will be in the waist-chest high range at the average S facing breaks. The better exposed combo breaks will be a bit more consistently chest high. Standout SSW facing breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will be a touch bigger with inconsistent sets showing in the chest-shoulder high range.

Winds look good with most spots seeing light and variable conditions through the morning and a few select areas seeing some slightly offshore flow. WNW winds move in through the afternoon and should top out in the 10-12 knot range, which may let a few of the more protected spots see somewhat manageable bump...there is enough of a chance that it will be worth keeping an eye on those protected areas.



Like I said it looks fun tomorrow, not great, but at least surfable in most areas and playful at the top breaks. I think that all types of spots (points/reefs/beach-breaks) will all have their attractions tomorrow...but nothing that looks like it will stand out all that much. The building tide will end up being pretty brutal to shape as it peaks around lunchtime...expect most spots to get swampy to almost shut down by the time the tide peaks...I would try and avoid it as best you can.

Here are the tides...

12:00AM LDT 3.9 H
05:18AM LDT 1.8 L
11:32AM LDT 5.6 H
06:52PM LDT 0.5 L

Surf for Friday – Picking up

Friday will be a marginal surf day...conditions will be good but there still won’t be a lot of swell in the water, particularly through the morning.

On Friday we will have a new S-SSW swell (180-200) that will slowly fill in throughout the day, (eventually peaking on Saturday). NW windswell from our local waters will filter in through the background. Look the dark blue is slowly starting to go away!



Surfwise we can expect waves in the knee-waist high range at the average spots that have some exposure to the S-SSW swell direction. The top spots, mostly through Orange County and San Diego (where there is a bit more combo in the swell), will be in the waist-chest high range. I do expect a few bigger waves coming through by later in the afternoon...we should see a few shoulder high sets at the top spots by sundown.

Winds will be light and variable for most areas through the morning. SD and OC may have some slight S flow at times but in general it will be clean throughout SoCal. WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots will fill in through the afternoon.

Don’t expect a ton from this new swell early on Friday morning...there won’t be much energy showing through the dawn patrol and we will also be pushing towards a higher tide that peaks around 8:45am...both of which will keep things a bit slow and inconsistent. With that being said I do think that you should at least do a camera check in the morning...the conditions will be clean and there is some swell in the water, so while it won’t be big, there is still a chance at catching a few.

Oh one last note...looks like the tropics are starting to get a little frisky...we have our first halfway decent tropical wave/disturbance of the season starting to push around south of the tip of Baja. Forecasts aren’t showing it developing much (it hits cooler water and wind shear) but it is nice to see some activity down there.



Here are the tides...

02:41AM LDT -0.5 L
08:49AM LDT 3.6 H
01:50PM LDT 1.5 L
08:02PM LDT 6.0 H

Surf for Friday – Combo swell fun-time!

Friday will be a surf day.

As it stands I don’t know that I would cancel work or anything...but I would plan on trying to carve out some time to surf tomorrow. Right now Friday looks like it will be playful and fun at the exposed spots. It even has potential to be a good surf day...but we need the swell combo, the winds, and the tides to mix a little better than they have been over the last couple of days.

In the water we have a mix of fading, but still steady, WNW swell (290-300) and some building S-SSW swell (180-200) that will start peaking in the afternoon. The S-SSW’er is actually filling in bit today, even sending in some inconsistent cross up sets to a S facing spot I surfed midmorning. Check it out on the O-Side buoy...



It isn’t a ton of energy right now but it will be coming up as we move into Friday and Saturday.

On Friday the average spots, with exposure both to the S-SSW swell or the WNW swell, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout S facing spots and the good combo breaks will be around shoulder-head high with some overhead sets. It will be more consistent on the lower tides...but if you have a good sandbar it should still be manageable on the high tide.

Winds look good for tomorrow...mostly light and variable through the morning with a couple of weak pockets of texture showing at the more exposed beaches. W winds around 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

The swell mix is pretty democratic tomorrow...so you should be able to find some sort of surf almost everywhere. I would look for the biggest waves in San Diego, Orange County, and Southern Ventura...LA County will be pretty good too, maybe a touch smaller. Santa Barbara is shadowed from the S swell but there should be enough WNW energy/windswell to get a few sets sneaking into the best spots...though I would stick with the south county breaks if you can...expect SB to be smaller than the other areas.

Hope you guys have a chance to surf a bit tomorrow...here are the tides...

03:47AM LDT -0.7 L
09:55AM LDT 3.6 H
02:59PM LDT 1.6 L
09:06PM LDT 5.8 H

Waves for Thursday – Looks fun...go Surfing

Thursday looks like a surf day.

I got a chance to get in the water (in North HB) earlier today and that WNW mix was doing pretty well. I would even say that I undercalled the swell mix a bit in the forecast yesterday. Shape wasn’t stellar by the time I paddled out, the onshore wind was getting to it and it was a bit lined up, but it had some decent size to the sets. On average it was about head high but there were a couple of bigger sets lurking out there.

On Thursday that WNW swell mix (290-300) is going to continue...and we are going to start to see an increasing SSW swell (180-200) that is going to be arriving throughout the day with long-period energy. The SSW’er will actually peak on Friday/Saturday but there will be some bigger sets at the S facing spots as it fills in slowly.

In the morning I would look for the biggest waves at the same WNW facing spots that had them showing on Wednesday. The SSW’er won’t have much size in the morning...so the S facing spots will still be working off mostly leftovers. By the afternoon the combo spots will be a better call. The morning will look something like this...



Sizewise it looks like the average W facing breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high range. The Standout NW facing spots...like those in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay...will have some shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets still mixing in at times. It will be more consistent on the bigger sets during the lower tide.

The winds look good tomorrow...mostly light and variable through the morning...maybe even a touch light-offshore for a few of the areas near passes and canyons. WNW winds around 10-14 knots build in through the afternoon.



Good winds, decent WNW swell mix, building SSW swell...I don’t think that it will be “firing” but it should be pretty fun in most areas...you shouldn’t have to drive around too much to find waves. I would stick to the NW facing spots if you want the bigger sizes.

Here are the tides...

03:09AM LDT -0.5 L
09:10AM LDT 3.8 H
02:30PM LDT 1.2 L
08:38PM LDT 5.8 H

Travel Alert (and Waves for SoCal) - South Pacific Brewing up a new SSW swell

Over the last couple of days we have had a nice looking storm has pull together down in the South Pacific that will be sending out a new SSW-SW swell for Southern California, Baja Mexico, Mainland Mexico, and Central America that will hit during the second half of next week. (Oct 22-25th depending on Location).



Satellite passes recorded 40-45+ knot winds and seas in the 30-35 foot range, which is fairly decent by storm strength but not super intense overall. (Don't get me wrong I would still poop myself if I was caught in a boat in the middle of this...but it isn’t really that strong of a storm from a weather perspective).

Fortunately the storm has some good duration, a large fetch, a decent storm track, and was positioned so that its swell doesn't have to pass through the South Pacific Island Shadow, all of which are good things from a surf standpoint. Also since it is a little late in the SPAC swell season it is worth mentioning when a better SSW swell is heading our way.



The majority of this new swell will be heading towards Mainland Mexico and Central America but both Baja and Southern California should have plenty of fun waves from this swell as it peaks. Here is how it will break down.

Mainland Mexico & Central America

Since the swell is pretty SW (210-225) for these areas it hits about the same time across the region. Look for new long-period SW energy to start pushing in on Wednesday Oct 22 but with the peak of the swell hitting on Thursday-Friday 23-24th and then slowly backing over the following weekend. As this swell hits we can expect most SW exposed breaks to see consistent overhead surf while the standout spots see sets going several feet overhead at times. Deepwater spots may see bigger sets as well.

Baja Sur

The SW'er hits about the same time it does in Mainland Mexico but it won't have the same sort of wave heights. Look for some energy to start pushing through exposed breaks on the 22nd but the peak of the swell hitting the 23-24th and then a slow fade starting on the 25th. This swell will primarily hit the Pacific Side areas with the average exposed areas seeing shoulder-head high+ surf and the standout exposed spots seeing overhead+ sets.

Southern California

The SSW swell (190-205) has to push up a little further to reach SoCal so we can expect the swell arrival to be a bit later and the wave heights to be smaller that the other areas. Look for the long-periods to start arriving through the day on the 23rd and the peak of the swell hitting Oct 24-25th. Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standouts, mostly in Orange County and San Diego, will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with inconsistent overhead sets at the top breaks. Even though SoCal will be a bit smaller that other areas on just this SSW swell, there is a good chance that we will have some WNW swell moving in about the same time...nothing huge, but enough to combo up the SSW'er, which is always nice.

Tuesday's Surf - picking up a touch but fighting the tide

Tuesday will be another rideable day but again I wouldn't venture to call it an actual surf day. There will be a touch more swell, cleaner conditions, but the tide continues to shaft us through most of the day.

We are going to see another small pulse of SSW energy arrive and overlap with our current SSW'er and mix with the background WNW windswell.

The average spots will continue to run in boggy knee-waist high waves. Standout SSW-SW facing surf breaks, mostly through Orange County and San Diego will be in the waist-chest high range on the sets.

Winds are looking much better tomorrow...mostly light/variable for the whole region with just a couple of small pockets of light-onshore texture here and there. Afternoon winds pick up out of the W around 10-12 knots.

Overall I wish we had more swell with the higher tides that hold throughout the day (crap even the low tide is a 3') but we don't so I should quit whining. The combo of small sizes and swampy tide is going to give plenty of spots some lovely mushy shorebreak shape. If you have to surf plan on hitting a spot that can handle a bit more water. I might hunt around for some mini-waves in the morning (just because I want to ride my new board)...but I am not going to be very motivated about it.


hmmm a little swampy

Tides for Tuesday

06:52AM 3.7' High
11:13AM 3.0' Low
05:03PM 5.3' High