Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Blanca

Well the second named tropical storm of the season spun up pretty fast here on Monday.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Blanca (I don't know if any of you watch that showtime show Weeds...but it is hard to hear "Blanca" without thinking about it)...pulled together about 900 Miles SE of Southern California (and about 400+ miles SSW of the tip of Cabo). Blanca is currently moving WNW (305-degrees) at about 8-10 knots.

Check out the NWS forecast for Blanca...



As of this afternoon the core of TS Blanca is already in the Southern California swell window. She has sustained winds around 40-45 knots with gusts near 60-knots in the NW and NE quadrants. As you can see the forecast has her shuffling off to the west and weakening as she hits colder water in the next couple of days.



Right now the storm has a couple of good things going for it and a couple of bad things.

On the good side...it is fairly close to SoCal...so if it does send out swell we won’t have a ton of decay eroding the energy out. Also the WNW movement is a fairly good angle for us...it isn’t directly at us but it keeps the “the intense” portion of the fetch closer to the side we want it to be on.

On the bad side, it isn’t all that intense...wind speeds aren’t great which will limit swell production. Also, she is going to hit cold water pretty quickly, which will kill the storm’s convection/rotation.

From a surf perspective I do expect a little SE swell from TS Blanca...she has good rotation, and ok winds, plus she is closer than a lot of storms get. I would look for a few chest-high+ waves at the SE facing spots, mostly in OC, around Wednesday/Thursday of this week...and if the storm can hold together (or get more intense) we could add some size to that.

Anyway that is what I have for now...I will update you if something changes.

First Tropical Depression

Hey gang...this isn’t really a surf update...but I thought I would share.

The first tropical depression of the season formed this morning.

Tropical Depression ONE-E (wow they give them such descriptive names)...pulled together a few hundred miles SSE of the Tip of Baja.



Current forecasts are not calling for this to be any sort of wave-maker for Southern California, or even much of Baja (maybe a few small waves around the tip, but really most of it will get lost in the bigger energy from the Southern Hemi). Really about all this system is going to do is try and drown parts of Central Mainland Mexico.

It is good to finally see some signs of life in the tropics...it has been a slow start to the season so far. Hopefully this will just be the start of a lot more activity.

Surf for Friday – Picking up

Friday will be a marginal surf day...conditions will be good but there still won’t be a lot of swell in the water, particularly through the morning.

On Friday we will have a new S-SSW swell (180-200) that will slowly fill in throughout the day, (eventually peaking on Saturday). NW windswell from our local waters will filter in through the background. Look the dark blue is slowly starting to go away!



Surfwise we can expect waves in the knee-waist high range at the average spots that have some exposure to the S-SSW swell direction. The top spots, mostly through Orange County and San Diego (where there is a bit more combo in the swell), will be in the waist-chest high range. I do expect a few bigger waves coming through by later in the afternoon...we should see a few shoulder high sets at the top spots by sundown.

Winds will be light and variable for most areas through the morning. SD and OC may have some slight S flow at times but in general it will be clean throughout SoCal. WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots will fill in through the afternoon.

Don’t expect a ton from this new swell early on Friday morning...there won’t be much energy showing through the dawn patrol and we will also be pushing towards a higher tide that peaks around 8:45am...both of which will keep things a bit slow and inconsistent. With that being said I do think that you should at least do a camera check in the morning...the conditions will be clean and there is some swell in the water, so while it won’t be big, there is still a chance at catching a few.

Oh one last note...looks like the tropics are starting to get a little frisky...we have our first halfway decent tropical wave/disturbance of the season starting to push around south of the tip of Baja. Forecasts aren’t showing it developing much (it hits cooler water and wind shear) but it is nice to see some activity down there.



Here are the tides...

02:41AM LDT -0.5 L
08:49AM LDT 3.6 H
01:50PM LDT 1.5 L
08:02PM LDT 6.0 H