Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Waves for Wednesday – more swell and a little storminess

Wednesday will have some more waves but thanks to conditions it doesn’t look like a surf day.

The current mix of WNW energy will increase on Wednesday with both the short and longer-period swells gaining a bit of strength. We will also have a new pulse of SSW swell starting to push into the mix…not a ton…but enough to break it up at the combo spots.

Wave heights will build into the chest-shoulder high range at most exposed W facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW facing breaks in San Diego and Ventura as well as the best combo breaks in the other regions can expect sizes in the chest-head high range fairly consistently with some overhead sets mixing in at times. San Diego looks like it will be the most exposed and will be the most consistent but there will be plenty of waves at the other regions as well.

Winds and weather are where the wheels come off…we have this lovely storm/cold front sitting off the coast.

The current forecast models are showing the front brushing over Socal and heading off to the NW over central California…enough to give us a few scattered showers and some funky windage. Not a real storm but enough to sort of hack up the surf shape. Here is what the current COAMPS model is calling for…

It is mostly onshore wind on this model…but there is a little weird buffer between the stronger winds off the coast and the actual beach. This is showing 7-8am…so there may be a chance at some surf in select areas. Basically I would expect variable onshore flow around 5-8 knots tomorrow morning for most areas and some stronger S-WSW winds around the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas. The afternoon looks even sloppier with W winds around 10-15 knots.

What I am hoping is that it gets really cold tonight…if it does there is a shot at a little high-pressure ridge setting up over Socal that could bump the front further north…leaving us with some manageable winds in the morning. I don’t have a lot of faith in this happening (it is the worst winter ever)…but it is worth watching for.

Basically I would plan on giving the cams a check in the morning and, if your local spot looks clean enough, then heading to the beach. It is supposed to be drizzly, a little cool, and have some onshore sickness…so I don’t think it will be worth driving very far. Hopefully we will get lucky and we can get some of this swell mix before the winds tweak it too much.

01:47AM LST 4.8 H
10:25AM LST 0.1 L
06:06PM LST 2.8 H
08:29PM LST 2.7 L


Anonymous said...

77-78 was worse, big time drought,
blocking high pressure, didn't even get the storm slop surf we got at times this year.
You may have been surfing in a fallopian tube that far back, AW.

Adam Wright said...

hahahaha...I was just kicking it with the other little tiny grommets on the sand. Probably jumping into the shorebreak on the warm days.

Anonymous said...

Let's all pray that the winds are light in the early morning!

Anonymous said...

to those few guys saying they have seen worse, please comment. are you like 89 or something??? was it in 1924 or what?

pushingtide said...

Good job Adam. You were almost spot on for this morn. Winds were slack or offshore from 6-8, at least in LA.