Thursday, March 12, 2009

S swells for the Weekend – quick update

It still looks like those overlapping S swells (180-200) will peak over this upcoming weekend.

Exposed spots...mostly in Orange County and San Diego...will have consistent surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets. The standout S facing spots, mostly just in the OC, will have some inconsistent overhead sets.

This isn’t going to be a super huge swell...but considering the winter we just slogged through it is nice to get some new swell heading our direction. Check out the CDIP for the next couple of days (sideways forecasts!)



It isn’t super descriptive thanks to the CDIPer’s having the scale dialed out to 3’ wave ranges...but you get the general feel of how the swell is going to hit over the weekend.

It is important (and you can tell by my excellent madden-style photoshopping) to note that there is going to be some shadowing for LA county from Catalina and San Clemente islands (and the whole cortez banks area as well). It doesn’t mean that it is going to get totally shut out but it will be about 40-50% smaller than the other areas. Stupid islands.

The wind forecast right now isn’t looking great...but fortunately the wind models have been totally jacked up on certain levels...so I expect to see some of the harsher parts of the wind model mellow out over the next few forecast runs. Really we should be expecting some onshore texture for almost all areas...lightest through the mornings (and cleanest on Saturday)...afternoons are going to be pretty hacked up so try and surf early.

I will have another “waves for the weekend” update tomorrow but I thought I could help you plan a little by posting this one today.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

will this swell hit the bu?

will this swell hit HB?

will this swell hit trestles?

where should I go at 10am on Saturday?

what if i eat breakfast late, where should i got at noon on Saturday?

thanks!

Anonymous said...

what if that guy above me is in my line-up? Not good, I say; not good at all.

Anyway, thanks for the pre-weekend post, Adam.

Anonymous said...

hopefully the winds don't fuck me for 3 days in a row

Anonymous said...

i don't know..but i thought we were expecting 4.5' @ 17 sec when this swell peaks.... sounds like your being ultra pessimistic... good spots like 56th - Brookhurst should be couple of feet overhead..... why you got to piss in our cherrios? its gonna be the best swell in months!

Adam Wright said...

a couple of reasons...the storm didn't quite get the wind speeds that I think it needed too. For big swells you sort of need the core area of the fetch to spend some quality time breaking the 50-knot barrier. This topped out in the 40-45kt range and it didn't hold in our swell window very long. I think the swell period is overcalling it a bit.

Second there are all kinds of factors in place around here that aren't going to help out...you have some consistent short-period NW windswell that will chew a little energy out of it...you have the nearshore islands and the local sea-banks chewing up some more...just a bunch of little tweaks that you need to account for.

Add in that we are going to have to power through a 5'+ high tide right in the middle of the day and that winds are be coming onshore fast and...to me...wants me to stay a little bit more conservative.

Are there going to be fun waves? sure (if the wind holds off long enough). Will there be some big sets?...yeah some of the lucky spots in Newps and HB will have some bigger overhead+ sets at times. It just won't be that consistently overhead+.

Don't get me wrong...I am hoping that I am being all grandpa conservative and the swell comes in bigger and cleaner than I think it will. I ain't got a lot of faith in it...but it is worth wishing for.

Anonymous said...

c'mon grandpa we want to surf!