Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Thursday’s Surf – New WNW/SW swell and more rain out the back

Thursday is looking pretty surfable but there may be a few areas, namely Santa Barbara and Ventura, that will have some wind issues in the morning.

New mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and new SW swell (190-215) began moving in some new, long-period energy on Wednesday…adding touch more size in the afternoon but will be mostly filling in more after dark. Check out the buoys from this afternoon (Oceanside Buoy for the SW swell mix and the Harvest Buoy for the WNW-NW energy)….

The new swell mix will peak on Thursday…showing biggest at spots with good WNW-NW exposure…but setting some fun waves at the good combo spots as well. Looks like high tide will keep things soft through the morning but if winds can hold off shape and consistency will improve through midday.

Sizewise we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to be in the chest-head high range on Thursday…maybe a little smaller/less-consistent through the morning. The better WNW-NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet overhead at times.

A new cold-front is forecast to move through the region late tonight and then move out on Thursday…driving some early NW-N winds in a few areas. Right now it looks like Santa Barbara and Ventura will have some N-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the morning…possibly stronger as you get out towards Point Conception. LA, OC, and San Diego will see more light/variable winds early in the morning, maybe a chance of some pockets of onshore texture here and there…but the onshore winds are expected to push in pretty fast, likely chunking things up around midday. More rain is forecast to move in on Friday and over the weekend…hopefully we will get a chance to enjoy the swell mix before it arrives.

So we have new swell, even some combo swell, showing on Thursday…but the weather is trying to work us over. Once again we are going to be sort of caught between a high morning tide with cleaner conditions and the lower tides with building onshore winds. Personally I think that there will be enough new swell at the standout breaks that it should be able to work even with the higher tide, particularly at spots that can handle a little extra water. I am thinking about getting on it early, rolling the dice with the tide, and trying to beat the wind…I hope this works out but I am not holding my breath either.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/25/2010 Thursday
05:56AM LST 5.8 H
01:17PM LST -1.1 L
07:37PM LST 3.9 H

No comments: