Thursday, February 11, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/11/2010

Forecast Overview

The next few days look like they will be pretty darn fun…we have a good sized W-NW swell and a decent SW swell (especially considering that it is the middle of Feb) holding in the background. Both of these swells will peak over the weekend setting up some consistent overhead surf for the top WNW-NW/combo spots with sets going several feet overhead at the standout breaks…possibly bigger. These swells will wind down slowly through the middle of next week. Weather looks pretty good for the next few days…so there is going to be a good chance at some combo-swell funtime!

Short Range (next 4 days)

The surf will be building…but we might have to be a little patient through the morning since there won’t be a ton of new size showing yet and we have another morning high tide creeping through. A new mix of long-period W-NW swell (275-300) and a new round of SW swell (200-215) will be filling in steadily throughout the day…with both swells starting up around 18-20 second periods…so your best bet is focusing on spots that like the longer-periods. Breaks around Ventura (though not Santa Barbara) will see building WNW surf sooner than other areas…while spots in OC and North SD that like the SW swell direction will also start to see some new, but inconsistent, sets creeping in early. For the morning, look for most breaks to continue to hold around knee-waist high+ with some chest-shoulder high waves pushing through inconsistently. Standout breaks, mostly the WNW facing spots in Ventura, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets now and then. By the afternoon all spots will be starting to see more consistent chest-shoulder high sets while the WNW standouts and the excellent combo breaks see some chest-head high surf and some inconsistent overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Winds look light in the morning…mostly below 10 knots…sort of variable in direction depending on the county, but still weak enough to keep things at least semi-clean. NW winds around 10-14 knots move in later in the afternoon.

THIS WILL BE A SURF DAY. The new W-NW swell (275-300) and the new SW swell (200-215) will start to peak. The W-NW energy will be showing stronger at spots up around Ventura in the morning but all areas will see an increase as we move throughout the day. At the same time the SW swell will be showing strongest through parts of OC and San Diego in the morning but will filter into some of the spots further north as the swell fills in more through the afternoon. Wave heights in the morning will be in the shoulder-head high+ range for most of the average WNW facing spots…while standouts see overhead+ sets becoming more and more consistent. By the afternoon most of the WNW facing spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a couple of feet overhead. The standout breaks will be running head high to a couple of feet overhead pretty consistently with some sets going several feet overhead at times. The S facing spots only exposed to the SW’er will be smaller…with knee-chest high surf pretty average and some shoulder high+ sets at the standouts. Combo spots, with excellent exposure to both swells will be larger. Winds/Weather: Light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-knots.

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SURF DAY. The W-NW swell and the SW will both continue to peak…holding strong throughout the day. Look for more shoulder-overhead surf at the standout WNW facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW-NW breaks and the best combo areas will see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some bigger sets going several feet overhead. South San Diego standouts look like they will see the most size thanks to a lot of direct exposure to this swell mix…look for surf in the area to stay pretty consistently overhead to well overhead…with some inconsistent sets going bigger at times. Winds/Weather: Light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-knots.

YEP THIS IS ANOTHER SURF DAY. The SW swell will start to lose a little energy on Monday but the W-NW energy will actually get a reinforcement of new swell (from a storm following close behind the first system) that will help to hold up wave heights at the well exposed W-NW facing breaks. Average spots can expect to lose a little size…with most of the exposed breaks see surf in the chest-head high range and some less consistent overhead sets. Best WNW-NW facing spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets still going a few feet overhead.


North Pacific
We have several days of decent sized W-NW swell that will start filling in on Friday and will peak Saturday/Sunday before backing down slowly, very slowly, on Monday.

At this point it looks like trailing elements of the bigger storm, that produced the swell for the weekend, will continue to push in shoulder-overhead+ surf to the top spots through Tuesday and Wednesday (Feb 16-17) before starting to significantly drop off on Thursday…weather looks good for most of next week as well…so I hope you guys saved up some sick days.

Further out there is STILL some more activity showing in the forecast run…looks like another decent sized system may pull together in the next 4-5 days just to the NE of Hawaii…right along the mid-latitudes. If this storm forms up the way the charts are showing this afternoon then there is a good shot that we will have more W-WNW swell heading our way for around the 19-20th…likely with more overhead surf on tap for the best WNW-NW facing spots.

South Pacific
The fun-sized SW swell (200-215+220) that we have been waiting for is going to arrive this weekend…peaking Saturday and Sunday before dropping off slowly on Monday. Like I mentioned in the short-range forecast this one looks good for chest-shoulder high surf at the better SW facing spots and some inconsistent head high sets at the standouts…hopefully it won’t get steamrolled by the bigger NPAC energy.

Further out there hasn’t been a whole lot more activity down in the SPAC after that last storm brewed up…oh it hasn’t been totally calm down there but nothing that has pulled together has been been very interesting. Long-range right now looks like we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing after that. There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand in about 4-5 days but it still has a lot of development to go before it can send us waves.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

bring it!!!!!!!!!