Waves for the 4th of July Holiday Weekend – here comes the craziness

Both Saturday and Sunday will have rideable surf…just expect a lot more of it on Sunday.

From a condition standpoint…neither day is looking outstanding. The eddy is forecast to hang around some more, so there will be some texture/crumble to the exposed spots. Fortunately it won’t spin up a super strong southerly flow, just enough to keep things a little sloppy.

Here is a quick little video showing the CDIP animation for the weekend…it has a soundtrack so watch out if you are at work. (If you are reading this in an email you can click through this http://www.socalsurf.com to view the video).



Saturday is going to be a bit of a waiting day, at least through the morning. During the dawn patrol we can expect the mix of weaker S-SW swells and steady WNW-NW windswell to hold over from Friday. The new S swell (175-190) will start to fill in through the day, showing long-period energy on the buoys (but not a ton on the beach) through midmorning, and then finally driving in some larger surf by later in the day.



Most spots will start off in the waist high range on Saturday…with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets sneaking through at the standout S-SW facing breaks and excellent combo spots. By the afternoon we can expect chest-shoulder high+ sets starting to show at the average S-SSW facing spots and some head high and even overhead surf occasionally hitting the standouts S swell spots (Mostly through Orange County). Since the winds will be coming onshore pretty steady by the afternoon it probably won’t be worth waiting for the bigger swell…if you can find a clean spot with playful waves in the morning, get on it!

Winds, like I said in the intro, won’t be all that great. The CDIP and the NOAA weather models are calling for some increasing eddy circulation in the morning. Overall winds are supposed to stay under 10-knots but that means there is still room for the 4-6 knot south winds that will likely be showing through Orange County and San Diego. Ventura, LA, and Santa Barbara will all have more variable to SE flow in the morning so there might be a few pockets of cleaner surf through those regions. By the afternoon all of Socal will have W-WNW winds around 10-15+ knots.



Sunday the new S swell (175-190) will peak…it will be coming on strong for the morning…and will peak a few hours after sunrise. Expect the swell to peak through the end of the day and hold solid surf into Monday.



Sizewise on Sunday…most of the average S facing spots will see shoulder-head high surf with overhead, and possibly even overhead+ sets mixing in. The standout S facing spots will be consistently head high to overhead with sets going 2-3 overhead as the swell really gets going. The best focal breaks, basically spots that really channel and multiply this swell, will be more consistently overhead with sets going 2-3’ overhead and probably bigger…I wouldn’t be surprised to see some waves almost breaking that double-overhead mark. Keep in mind those bigger sizes are only for a few select spots. One last thing to note…all southern hemi swells (even the big ones) will have gaps between the sets…I would wait it out on the beach for a while so that you can get an accurate feel for the surf.

Winds on Sunday will still have the eddy circulation but the overall S winds look a little lighter and even a little more SE’erly though the early morning. In general we can still expect S-SSE flow for OC and San Diego, with the more SE flow for LA, Ventura, and Southern Santa Barbara. The W winds will return in the afternoon and we can expect them to top out in the 12-15 knot range by late in the day.



So we have a solid swell hitting this weekend…but it is going to be hard to capitalize on it because of the holiday. Parking, blackball, crowds, parades, police, lifeguards, dogs and cats living together (mass hysteria!) will all conspire against us as this swell fills in. Personally I am probably going to shine surfing on Sunday...I might bike down and bodysurf at some point…but I am more likely to bbq, have a few adult beverages, and help my kids play with some various forms of fire. This swell is going to hold pretty solid into Monday, where the winds will be better, there may be a little more windswell to cross things up, and there will be a crapload fewer people on the beach…just something to keep in mind.

Here are the tides…have a great 4th of July! (and please be safe in and out of the water)

Cheers ~ Adam

07/03/2010 Saturday
01:25AM LDT 3.5 H
08:12AM LDT 1.2 L
03:11PM LDT 4.2 H
09:59PM LDT 2.2 L

07/04/2010 Sunday
02:44AM LDT 2.9 H
08:48AM LDT 1.6 L
03:56PM LDT 4.4 H
11:30PM LDT 1.7 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/11/2010

Forecast Overview

The next few days look like they will be pretty darn fun…we have a good sized W-NW swell and a decent SW swell (especially considering that it is the middle of Feb) holding in the background. Both of these swells will peak over the weekend setting up some consistent overhead surf for the top WNW-NW/combo spots with sets going several feet overhead at the standout breaks…possibly bigger. These swells will wind down slowly through the middle of next week. Weather looks pretty good for the next few days…so there is going to be a good chance at some combo-swell funtime!

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
The surf will be building…but we might have to be a little patient through the morning since there won’t be a ton of new size showing yet and we have another morning high tide creeping through. A new mix of long-period W-NW swell (275-300) and a new round of SW swell (200-215) will be filling in steadily throughout the day…with both swells starting up around 18-20 second periods…so your best bet is focusing on spots that like the longer-periods. Breaks around Ventura (though not Santa Barbara) will see building WNW surf sooner than other areas…while spots in OC and North SD that like the SW swell direction will also start to see some new, but inconsistent, sets creeping in early. For the morning, look for most breaks to continue to hold around knee-waist high+ with some chest-shoulder high waves pushing through inconsistently. Standout breaks, mostly the WNW facing spots in Ventura, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets now and then. By the afternoon all spots will be starting to see more consistent chest-shoulder high sets while the WNW standouts and the excellent combo breaks see some chest-head high surf and some inconsistent overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Winds look light in the morning…mostly below 10 knots…sort of variable in direction depending on the county, but still weak enough to keep things at least semi-clean. NW winds around 10-14 knots move in later in the afternoon.



Saturday
THIS WILL BE A SURF DAY. The new W-NW swell (275-300) and the new SW swell (200-215) will start to peak. The W-NW energy will be showing stronger at spots up around Ventura in the morning but all areas will see an increase as we move throughout the day. At the same time the SW swell will be showing strongest through parts of OC and San Diego in the morning but will filter into some of the spots further north as the swell fills in more through the afternoon. Wave heights in the morning will be in the shoulder-head high+ range for most of the average WNW facing spots…while standouts see overhead+ sets becoming more and more consistent. By the afternoon most of the WNW facing spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a couple of feet overhead. The standout breaks will be running head high to a couple of feet overhead pretty consistently with some sets going several feet overhead at times. The S facing spots only exposed to the SW’er will be smaller…with knee-chest high surf pretty average and some shoulder high+ sets at the standouts. Combo spots, with excellent exposure to both swells will be larger. Winds/Weather: Light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-knots.



Sunday
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SURF DAY. The W-NW swell and the SW will both continue to peak…holding strong throughout the day. Look for more shoulder-overhead surf at the standout WNW facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW-NW breaks and the best combo areas will see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some bigger sets going several feet overhead. South San Diego standouts look like they will see the most size thanks to a lot of direct exposure to this swell mix…look for surf in the area to stay pretty consistently overhead to well overhead…with some inconsistent sets going bigger at times. Winds/Weather: Light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-knots.



Monday
YEP THIS IS ANOTHER SURF DAY. The SW swell will start to lose a little energy on Monday but the W-NW energy will actually get a reinforcement of new swell (from a storm following close behind the first system) that will help to hold up wave heights at the well exposed W-NW facing breaks. Average spots can expect to lose a little size…with most of the exposed breaks see surf in the chest-head high range and some less consistent overhead sets. Best WNW-NW facing spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets still going a few feet overhead.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have several days of decent sized W-NW swell that will start filling in on Friday and will peak Saturday/Sunday before backing down slowly, very slowly, on Monday.



At this point it looks like trailing elements of the bigger storm, that produced the swell for the weekend, will continue to push in shoulder-overhead+ surf to the top spots through Tuesday and Wednesday (Feb 16-17) before starting to significantly drop off on Thursday…weather looks good for most of next week as well…so I hope you guys saved up some sick days.

Further out there is STILL some more activity showing in the forecast run…looks like another decent sized system may pull together in the next 4-5 days just to the NE of Hawaii…right along the mid-latitudes. If this storm forms up the way the charts are showing this afternoon then there is a good shot that we will have more W-WNW swell heading our way for around the 19-20th…likely with more overhead surf on tap for the best WNW-NW facing spots.


South Pacific
The fun-sized SW swell (200-215+220) that we have been waiting for is going to arrive this weekend…peaking Saturday and Sunday before dropping off slowly on Monday. Like I mentioned in the short-range forecast this one looks good for chest-shoulder high surf at the better SW facing spots and some inconsistent head high sets at the standouts…hopefully it won’t get steamrolled by the bigger NPAC energy.

Further out there hasn’t been a whole lot more activity down in the SPAC after that last storm brewed up…oh it hasn’t been totally calm down there but nothing that has pulled together has been been very interesting. Long-range right now looks like we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing after that. There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand in about 4-5 days but it still has a lot of development to go before it can send us waves.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/08/2010

Forecast Overview

W-NW swell from the weekend backs down over the next couple of days but gets some reinforcement from local windswell (as well as sloppy conditions) starting Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Look for smaller surf on Thursday and into early Friday but then a new round of large W-NW swell and a playful sized SW swell fill in Friday afternoon and peak over the next weekend. A little rain and wind on tap for the middle of the week and then cleaner/better conditions settling in by the time we reach the weekend…just in time for the next round of swell.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
Look for our mix of W-NW swell to back down on Tuesday…particularly through the morning. New building windswell will start to creep up by late in the afternoon and more as we head into sundown. Surfwise the average spots are going to see chest-shoulder high surf. The standout WNW-NW facing spots, in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will see chest-head high surf with some overhead sets still mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds on tap for the morning…with a few pockets of light texture here and there. Look for building W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots with gusts hitting 20 knots by late in the day…chance for showers and thunderstorms as well.



Wednesday
The swell from the weekend, the W-NW mix, will continue to back down while local WNW-NW windswell holds steady throughout the day. Wednesday is not looking particularly surfable, thanks mostly to WNW-NW winds that are forecast to hold throughout the day…there may be a few pockets of semi-rideable shape but mostly it will be pretty sloppy. Surf will hold around chest-shoulder high at the average WNW facing breaks while the standout WNW-NW facing spots see more chest-head high+ surf on the lower tides. The swell periods are going to be pretty short on most of this energy…so if you do see some sort of surf window open up locally try and check the spots that like windswells. Winds/Weather: Forecasts are calling for the last of the storm to be moving through in the morning…so a chance for showers and W-NW winds around 10-20 knots still early then clearer skies but still steady winds holding into the afternoon.



Thursday
The mix of W-NW leftovers from earlier in the week and the local windswell from the last couple of days will back down on Thursday…leaving most spots with fairly small surf. Look for average W-WNW facing spots to see surf in the knee-waist high range while the standout WNW-NW breaks see some waist-chest high waves and a few shoulder high sets at the really NW exposed breaks of South San Diego. There will also be a little bit more SSW-SW swell in the water (190-215)…not a ton…but enough to put some small knee-high+ lines into SW facing breaks and maybe helping to peak up a few of the more exposed combo breaks. Winds/Weather: Winds will be light and variable for the morning with still a few areas of light onshore/variable texture at a few of the really open spots. Look for the more standard WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Friday
The surf will be building…but we might have to be a little patient through the morning since there won’t be a ton of new size showing yet. A new mix of long-period W-NW swell (275-300) and a new round of SW swell (200-215) will be filling in steadily throughout the day…with both swells starting up around 18-20 second periods…so your best bet is focusing on spots that like the longer-periods. Breaks around Ventura (though not Santa Barbara) will see building WNW surf sooner than other areas…while spots in OC and North SD that like the SW swell direction will also start to see some new, but inconsistent, sets creeping in early. For the morning, look for most breaks to continue to hold around knee-waist high+ with some chest-shoulder high waves pushing through inconsistently. Standout breaks, mostly the WNW facing spots in Ventura, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets now and then. By the afternoon all spots will be starting to see more consistent chest-shoulder high sets while the WNW standouts and the excellent combo breaks see some chest-head high surf and some inconsistent overhead sets.This swell mix will continue to fill in overnight and will peak over the weekend…hell yeah combo swell! Winds/Weather: Winds look light in the morning…mostly below 10 knots…but there is another cold front expected to push close to the region and I am not sure how it will actually end up affecting us. Look for some breezier onshore flow in the afternoon…but the morning looks ok at this point.



Long-Range

North Pacific
As you read in the short-range part of the forecast…our current mix of W-NW swell will be slowly backing down as we move through the week but won’t drop all that fast thanks to an infusion of windswell (and sloppy conditions) that push through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Later this week is where things start to get really interesting…

There is a pretty macho looking storm forming just off to the NNW of Hawaii that is forecast to push across the mid-latitudes over the next couple of days setting up a pretty solid W-NW swell (275-300) that will begin filling in with long-period energy on Friday (Feb 12) but then peaking Saturday through Monday (Feb 13-15). NERD ALERT…skip ahead if the weather crap bores you This bad boy is really only part of the whole “interesting” thing…just the first part. What is forecast to happen behind this first low-pressure is pretty impressive. I have mentioned the term “complex” low-pressure before…well we have another strong instance of one forming. Check out the GFS model run for the next 5 days…



The first low-pressure is pulled back up just under the Aleutians into a slow spin that has the low-pressure center sort of warbling back and forth on the western edge of the Gulf of Alaska…I usually refer to this as the “anchor” low-pressure. Along the mid-latitudes we have several following low-pressures…each of them acting as sort of an embedded cold front…these lows each push along the path that the first storm paved, but stretch out that mid-latitude fetch further and further east as each new system goes through. Generally the bigger, more intense, and persistent (meaning how long it lasts timewise) an area of fetch can the bigger the surf we can expect. In the current set-up these storms establish a pretty significant stretch of fetch…several thousand miles long…with consistent winds around 25-30 knots with gusts hitting near 50+ knots at times.



What is even more impressive is that this fetch, while not always 100% aimed right toward Socal, does stick around for at least for the next 4-5 days. This means that storm1 establishes a pretty solid “sea-state”, which is usually all of the agitated water under a storm…but in this case means all of the agitated ocean that is being pushed in our general direction (IE swell+windswell+storm chop), and each successive low-pressure that trains on in behind the first storm just piles energy on top of an already existing swell. It also means that the following systems don’t need as much “total wind speed” to generate the same sort of swell that a storm moving over a neutral ocean surface would need. Check out the general up-tick in sea-heights that occurs after about 3-4 days…



That is a hell of a lot of water being thrown around…and a lot of it within Socal’s swell window...which for us generally equals awesome. END NERD ALERT

Sizewise…as the swell peaks on Saturday/Sunday and on into Monday I am expecting the average spots to see surf in the shoulder-overhead range, with some sets going a couple of feet overhead at the average spots with a little more WNW exposure. The better WNW facing breaks will be running consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead with some bigger sets mixing it up. The standout WNW-NW facing breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will see consistent surf going a 2-3’ overhead with some well overhead sets mixing in…possibly hitting near the double overhead range if things like the tide and wind are cooperating. The biggest days look like Saturday and Sunday…Monday will be a touch smaller but it won’t significantly drop off. Even better is that the weather is looking good for these days…likely light offshore winds through the mornings and semi-managable onshore flow for the afternoons (along with sunny skies). There will also be a decent-sizes, shoulder-head high SW swell arriving over the weekend as well…so there is a good chance of some decent combo swell shape. Hell yeah!

Further out it looks like trailing elements of the bigger storm will continue to push in overhead+ surf to the top spots through Tuesday and Wednesday (Feb 16-17) and possibly longer…basically at this point I don’t see any sort of definitive change in the NPAC storm track.

South Pacific
The SPAC is definitely starting to spin up some new activity…I have mentioned it in the last couple of forecasts...and the systems are finally in development, setting up some lovely fetch for us as I write this. Unfortunately we will still need to wait about 4-5 days for the swell to arrive, so don’t get super fired up yet. Between now and then we are going to see a mix of small background S-SW swells, none really over knee high+, that will get lost in the bigger shots of WNW-NW energy coming in.

Further out the storm down by New Zealand…but better positioned that most that form up down there…did pull together some decent fetch over the weekend so that SW swell is in the water headed our way. It wasn’t super strong…30-40+ knot winds and 30-foot seas…which are good numbers but not that good…particularly since the storm is a little shadowed by the South Pacific islands and is quite a ways away (around 5000-6000 miles off). The combo of distance and some-shadowing will shave some size off the swell…so at this point I am expecting chest-shoulder high SW swell at the average spots and some head high sets for the top breaks arriving around Feb 13-14. Remember the much larger W-NW swell will be in the water around the same time…so it looks like the weekend may end up being combo-swell-funtime at spots exposed to both swells.



Not much on tap in the forecast after the swell for Feb 13-14…but the general activity level of the SPAC is still pretty good...so I am expecting something new to start showing on the charts fairly soon…possibly setting up some more SSW-SW swell for around Feb 18-19.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 11th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Thursday – WNW swell continues

Thursday will be a surf day.

Our WNW swell (280-300 but with the main punch of energy coming in around 290-300) will peak overnight into Thursday, mixing with some local short-period WSW-WNW windswell and some very background SW energy.

One main difference between Wednesday and Thursday’s surf is the dropping swell period…

Like a few of you commented…we saw a lot of long-period weirdness on Wednesday. What happens on days like this is that when we have such long swell-periods the swell will feel the sea-floor at much deeper water depths than shorter-periods. Since these swells are hitting parts of the sea-floor that they normally don’t they start to refract and bend into certain areas…and this sometimes will actually pull swell that was supposed to be hitting one section of the beach and double it up in on another spot. It makes finding waves a little tricky…but can be pretty rewarding if you know where to look. Here is the “NOWCAST” analysis from the CDIP group…you can definitely see the “wrap” as the swell refracts through the nearshore islands.



So back on topic…on Thursday the swell period is going to drop…moving from the 18-19 seconds we had on Wednesday into a more standard 15-16 seconds. As this happens the swell-height will actually come up a notch as well. With both of these factors switching around I think that the surf will “feel” bigger and more consistent on Thursday than it did in most places on Wednesday. Here is the “forecast” CDIP that I normally post…this is for 7am Thursday.



Surfwise on Thursday we can expect the average W-WNW facing breaks to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range…with a few bigger sets pushing in at spots with a bit more WNW exposure. The better WNW-NW facing breaks will be running a consistent shoulder-overhead range with some sets going a few feet overhead at times…generally these spots will be in the Ventura, South Bay, and South San Diego regions but there a handful of breaks throughout Socal that will be in those sizes.

Standout NW facing breaks, the real wintertime standouts in the South SD, Ventura, and South Bay areas, will have surf consistently head high to a few feet overhead range with a few sets going several feet overhead to about double-overhead at times through the morning.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light and variable for LA down through San Diego. Santa Barbara and Ventura will have some easterly flow 10-15 knots in the morning with some stronger 15-20 knot gusts at times. Look for building S-SSE’erly winds and increasing clouds through the day…chance for some rain in the afternoon.



Plenty of waves on tap for tomorrow…and it looks like between the size of the surf, conditions, and the decent tides, that it will be one of those days where it will be worth driving to find some waves. About the only real catch is that most spots are going to be surfable, except for the purely S facing breaks, so you will be able to find waves close to home as well. If you are looking for larger and more consistent surf plan on sticking to those standout areas I mentioned above. Try and get on it earlier in the day too…the winds look like they could get funky by the afternoon.

Have a good one…here are the tides…stay safe!

12/10/2009 Thursday
04:18AM LST 5.2 H
11:17AM LST 1.0 L
04:53PM LST 3.5 H
10:26PM LST 1.3 L

Tuesday’s Surf – Slow fade

Tuesday morning will be a surf day but the WNW swell that peaked Sunday afternoon/Monday will be on the way down.

The WNW’er (280-300) will be slowly fading throughout the day. There will still be plenty of waves for the exposed breaks but not as much size/power as we saw on Monday.

Wave heights will hold in the chest-shoulder high range at the average WNW facing spots. The Standout NW facing breaks…mostly in San Diego…see some shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets continuing to mix in.

Weatherwise it is going to be pretty similar to Monday just not as hot. Expect mostly variable to offshore winds through the morning and light onshore flow out of the NW around 10-12 knots for the afternoon. High clouds and some humidity creeping around as well.

As for the best spots tomorrow…well the CDIPer from this afternoon is a good reference.



The swell has a bit more west energy in it compared to the stuff that tried to move in over the weekend. You can see that it is doing a better (but not great) job of filling in some of the gaps. Really, if you are looking for big waves, San Diego is going to be the call…Ventura and the South Bay are going to be good backups but won’t be as consistent. From what I have heard it sounds like the point and reefs are showing the best shape…a few of the beach breaks that hook the swell the right way are ok too but the swell is sort of lined up at times so you sort of need something for the swell to shape up on. If you have the time I think that Tuesday would be a better day to drive around…most everyone is back at work so there may be some more open spots out there. (after the dawn patrol of course).

Here are the tides…

04:45 4.9 H
12:43 0.1 L
07:35 3.0 H
11:14 2.6 L