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It was a pretty craptacular morning… the eddy was lame, the tide dropping didn’t help, and the S swell was out there but with not enough juice to make anyone happy…(though I seem to recall recommending people surf on Monday)
Fortunately the swell is finally starting to fill in and I think I saw a little blue patch of sky trying to force its way through the marine layer...I guess we can enjoy the holiday after all. Now if you will excuse me …there is a coors light somewhere with my name on it. Cheers!
Both Saturday and Sunday will have rideable surf…just expect a lot more of it on Sunday.
From a condition standpoint…neither day is looking outstanding. The eddy is forecast to hang around some more, so there will be some texture/crumble to the exposed spots. Fortunately it won’t spin up a super strong southerly flow, just enough to keep things a little sloppy.
Here is a quick little video showing the CDIP animation for the weekend…it has a soundtrack so watch out if you are at work. (If you are reading this in an email you can click through this http://www.socalsurf.com to view the video).
Saturday is going to be a bit of a waiting day, at least through the morning. During the dawn patrol we can expect the mix of weaker S-SW swells and steady WNW-NW windswell to hold over from Friday. The new S swell (175-190) will start to fill in through the day, showing long-period energy on the buoys (but not a ton on the beach) through midmorning, and then finally driving in some larger surf by later in the day.
Most spots will start off in the waist high range on Saturday…with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets sneaking through at the standout S-SW facing breaks and excellent combo spots. By the afternoon we can expect chest-shoulder high+ sets starting to show at the average S-SSW facing spots and some head high and even overhead surf occasionally hitting the standouts S swell spots (Mostly through Orange County). Since the winds will be coming onshore pretty steady by the afternoon it probably won’t be worth waiting for the bigger swell…if you can find a clean spot with playful waves in the morning, get on it!
Winds, like I said in the intro, won’t be all that great. The CDIP and the NOAA weather models are calling for some increasing eddy circulation in the morning. Overall winds are supposed to stay under 10-knots but that means there is still room for the 4-6 knot south winds that will likely be showing through Orange County and San Diego. Ventura, LA, and Santa Barbara will all have more variable to SE flow in the morning so there might be a few pockets of cleaner surf through those regions. By the afternoon all of Socal will have W-WNW winds around 10-15+ knots.
Sunday the new S swell (175-190) will peak…it will be coming on strong for the morning…and will peak a few hours after sunrise. Expect the swell to peak through the end of the day and hold solid surf into Monday.
Sizewise on Sunday…most of the average S facing spots will see shoulder-head high surf with overhead, and possibly even overhead+ sets mixing in. The standout S facing spots will be consistently head high to overhead with sets going 2-3 overhead as the swell really gets going. The best focal breaks, basically spots that really channel and multiply this swell, will be more consistently overhead with sets going 2-3’ overhead and probably bigger…I wouldn’t be surprised to see some waves almost breaking that double-overhead mark. Keep in mind those bigger sizes are only for a few select spots. One last thing to note…all southern hemi swells (even the big ones) will have gaps between the sets…I would wait it out on the beach for a while so that you can get an accurate feel for the surf.
Winds on Sunday will still have the eddy circulation but the overall S winds look a little lighter and even a little more SE’erly though the early morning. In general we can still expect S-SSE flow for OC and San Diego, with the more SE flow for LA, Ventura, and Southern Santa Barbara. The W winds will return in the afternoon and we can expect them to top out in the 12-15 knot range by late in the day.
So we have a solid swell hitting this weekend…but it is going to be hard to capitalize on it because of the holiday. Parking, blackball, crowds, parades, police, lifeguards, dogs and cats living together (mass hysteria!) will all conspire against us as this swell fills in. Personally I am probably going to shine surfing on Sunday...I might bike down and bodysurf at some point…but I am more likely to bbq, have a few adult beverages, and help my kids play with some various forms of fire. This swell is going to hold pretty solid into Monday, where the winds will be better, there may be a little more windswell to cross things up, and there will be a crapload fewer people on the beach…just something to keep in mind.
Here are the tides…have a great 4th of July! (and please be safe in and out of the water)
Cheers ~ Adam
07/03/2010 Saturday 01:25AM LDT 3.5 H 08:12AM LDT 1.2 L 03:11PM LDT 4.2 H 09:59PM LDT 2.2 L
07/04/2010 Sunday 02:44AM LDT 2.9 H 08:48AM LDT 1.6 L 03:56PM LDT 4.4 H 11:30PM LDT 1.7 L
Most spots will be rideable, and a few of the best exposed (and wind sheltered), will even be fun at times. Overall they won’t be very consistent, or big…they will just be your standard summer SW swell.
For our swell mix this weekend we are going to see a building SW swell (200-220) that fills in on Saturday (mixing with energy from the work week), and some backing down NW windswell. The SW’er will actually peak overnight into Sunday and then fade slowly on Monday as the swell direction turns a bit more southerly. In fact it is going to look a lot like what we have on the CDIP this morning. You can see how the more SW’erly angle is going to cause the nearshore islands to shadow some of our areas, mostly North Orange County and Northern Ventura.
Wavewise the average exposed spots are going to hold around waist-chest high. The standout SW facing spots, mostly in San Diego and South OC, are going to have chest-shoulder high surf with some rare bigger sets on the better tides. The shadowed areas (North OC, North Ventura) can expect smaller, less consistent, surf…mostly around knee-waist high with some occasional chest high sets on the lower tides. The shadowed areas will start to get a little bigger as the swell turns more southerly early next week.
The winds and the weather are going to just be ok. We are going to continue to see the eddyish conditions over the weekend, but with some lighter morning windspeeds. Both Saturday and Sunday can expect light and variable to light southerly winds in the morning and then NW winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon. Expect some onshore texture for a few of the more exposed areas…even through the dawn patrol. If you have the option it would be best to stick to spots with high cliffs, kelp, basically something to knock down the wind.
Saturday @ 8am
Sunday @ 8am
Beach temps will be sort of mild…low-mid 60’s in the morning to low 70’s in the afternoon once the sun burns through.
It is the holiday weekend…so expect crowds, shitty parking, and lots of traffic in the coastal areas. Personally I am going to stick close to my home breaks to cut down on the frustration. If you have to drive for a while to get to the beach I would hit the road early.
Here are the tides…Have a great 4th of July weekend!
Saturday 02:58AM LDT -0.4 L 09:33AM LDT 3.4 H 01:43PM LDT 2.5 L 07:56PM LDT 5.7 H
Sunday 03:33AM LDT -0.6 L 10:05AM LDT 3.5 H 02:23PM LDT 2.5 L 08:31PM LDT 5.8 H
Looks like it will be a surfable weekend…nothing huge on tap but there will be a few fun rideable waves at the better exposed spots. More importantly the weather and the winds should be pretty good…mostly light and variable throughout both days (just a little bump in the afternoons).
Surfwise we are going to have a mix of SW swells, some local windswell, and some very background leftover tropical energy.
Saturday will be a little bigger with a lot of waist-chest high waves at the average spots and some bigger chest-shoulder high sets at the standout S facing breaks and best combo spots.
Sunday will be closer to knee-waist high at the average spots and chest high+ at the standouts.
Looks like OC and San Diego will have the biggest surf this weekend…mostly South OC and North San Diego. It won’t really be worth fighting traffic to get to those areas so if you aren’t close already then you might want to just stick around your local breaks. With the light wind and S swell pushing in warmer water again it should make surfing smaller waves a bit more bearable. Try and get it on the tide push in the morning…you will have some better consistency (and are more likely to find parking).
That is about it for the next couple of days…have a great holiday!
Friday will be a surf day...but you are going to need to plan around the rest of the shenanigans that generally occur on the 4th of July.
We will have a mix of SW swell, background tropical energy, and a touch of local windswell.
Average spots will be in the waist to occasionally chest high range while the standout S facing spots see some chest-shoulder high sets on the morning tide push.
Winds are expected to be light and variable through the morning then come onshore around 10+ knots during the afternoon.
Really your best bet...at least in my opinion, the way to have the most fun...is to stick to your local break, surf what you have at your spot, and enjoy the beach. The surf isn't good enough to warrant hunting through a ton of spots to find the perfect wave. Layer on the fact that traffic and parking are probably going to suck, and that many areas will have restricted access and it makes even more sense to get up early, head to a close-by beach and ride a few before the zoo descends. Personally I am going to try and surf during the dawn patrol...then it will be off to the slip-n-slide by the time the crazy makes it to the beach.
Have a great holiday everyone...I will have an update for the weekend tomorrow!
