Friday, February 19, 2010

Waves for the Weekend – Funky Chicken and more rain

At first glance this doesn’t look like a surf weekend…but there may be a little wriggle-room (surf-room) Saturday morning.

Overall this weekend looks pretty sloppy…sure there will be some new stormy W swell but the winds are forecast to stay onshore out of the west pretty much the whole weekend and bring another inch+ of rain to the coastal areas. The swell, really a WSW-W-WNW swell mix (260-300), will be arriving fast Friday evening and will eventually peak Saturday afternoon and on into Sunday.

Here are the swell forecasts for both days…



Sizewise, once the swell starts to peak on Saturday afternoon, I am expecting surf in the shoulder-head high range for most of the average W facing breaks. The standout spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a few feet overhead at times. These waves will hold overnight into Sunday…and then fade slowly as we move into Monday.

Weather in general will be pretty junky this weekend…but check out the wind/weather models for Saturday morning…

The COAMPS is calling for steady, sort of nasty looking, W winds for the morning…

But the NWS/NOAA models are showing some lighter morning winds and even a bit of circulation putting S-SE winds going semi-offshore in a few areas.

Personally I don’t believe either model all that much…they both have been a little aggressive in estimating how fast a storm will push through our area during our last few systems. Generally the storms have come in later and slower moving than these models have predicted…I have a feeling that actual conditions are going to be somewhere in the middle of those two. That being said I think that Saturday morning will be our best chance for surf…just don’t commit a lot of time to trying to get to the beach. I would give the cams a check in the morning…maybe check out the live winds if you can…and make sure that, even if the wind is light, that there isn’t a bunch of funk still on the water.

The models both agree that Sunday will be windier…W winds around 10-15 knots with gusts still topping out around 20 knots in some areas.

So the weekend doesn’t look all that good…the weather is going to do a lot to screw up conditions/surf-shape. Add in the “even more rain” factor and junky sloppy surf, with poor water quality, just doesn’t sound that inviting. I would still try and keep an eye on Saturday morning…but don’t hold your breath.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/20/2010 Saturday
12:02AM LST 4.5 H
07:37AM LST 1.2 L
01:19PM LST 2.4 H
05:32PM LST 1.9 L

02/21/2010 Sunday
12:56AM LST 4.5 H
09:25AM LST 0.9 L


Anonymous said...

Taj won pipe in onshores...whats the deal?

Anonymous said...

Not sure either but good thing 80% of surfers stay home when the dreaded ''chop!'' sets in.
Man this has been a pretty good winter, another solid sized weekend.
thanks adam for helpin us score