Waves for the Weekend – Funky Chicken and more rain

At first glance this doesn’t look like a surf weekend…but there may be a little wriggle-room (surf-room) Saturday morning.

Overall this weekend looks pretty sloppy…sure there will be some new stormy W swell but the winds are forecast to stay onshore out of the west pretty much the whole weekend and bring another inch+ of rain to the coastal areas. The swell, really a WSW-W-WNW swell mix (260-300), will be arriving fast Friday evening and will eventually peak Saturday afternoon and on into Sunday.

Here are the swell forecasts for both days…

Saturday



Sunday



Sizewise, once the swell starts to peak on Saturday afternoon, I am expecting surf in the shoulder-head high range for most of the average W facing breaks. The standout spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a few feet overhead at times. These waves will hold overnight into Sunday…and then fade slowly as we move into Monday.

Weather in general will be pretty junky this weekend…but check out the wind/weather models for Saturday morning…



The COAMPS is calling for steady, sort of nasty looking, W winds for the morning…



But the NWS/NOAA models are showing some lighter morning winds and even a bit of circulation putting S-SE winds going semi-offshore in a few areas.

Personally I don’t believe either model all that much…they both have been a little aggressive in estimating how fast a storm will push through our area during our last few systems. Generally the storms have come in later and slower moving than these models have predicted…I have a feeling that actual conditions are going to be somewhere in the middle of those two. That being said I think that Saturday morning will be our best chance for surf…just don’t commit a lot of time to trying to get to the beach. I would give the cams a check in the morning…maybe check out the live winds if you can…and make sure that, even if the wind is light, that there isn’t a bunch of funk still on the water.

The models both agree that Sunday will be windier…W winds around 10-15 knots with gusts still topping out around 20 knots in some areas.



So the weekend doesn’t look all that good…the weather is going to do a lot to screw up conditions/surf-shape. Add in the “even more rain” factor and junky sloppy surf, with poor water quality, just doesn’t sound that inviting. I would still try and keep an eye on Saturday morning…but don’t hold your breath.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/20/2010 Saturday
12:02AM LST 4.5 H
07:37AM LST 1.2 L
01:19PM LST 2.4 H
05:32PM LST 1.9 L

02/21/2010 Sunday
12:56AM LST 4.5 H
09:25AM LST 0.9 L

Random Surf Report – Afternoon waves

Well it looks like the worst part of the storm has moved through the area and winds, at least in a few of the more Southerly Counties (LA down through San Diego) are dropping, turning more SE’erly, and generally cleaning up…though San Diego and the South Bay have been pretty clean most of the day...(We are going to need to send mother nature a nice note about keeping the winds pretty SE for this storm). Check out the latest wind update from about 1pm…if anything the local winds have improved.



The W swell is also starting to show…with a few solid looking sets hitting up around Ventura/LA…and an increase (but not quite as dramatic) building in San Diego and Orange County. I do expect this W swell to fill in more over the next several hours and likely peak tonight (and overnight into Thursday).



At this point it looks like the Ventura and other well exposed NW facing spots are seeing consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in.

Further South…the W facing breaks in the South Bay and San Diego seem to be more in the chest-shoulder high range but with a few bigger shoulder-head high sets showing at times. Like I said…I do expect to see bigger, more consistently overhead surf at the standouts in those areas by later this afternoon…hopefully the winds will hold.

I had a couple of you guys ask about water quality…and while I am not a doctor or a microbiologist…I have seen some pretty nasty crap pushed out of rivers/storm-drains over the course of my 20+ years of surfing…and as I am getting older I am a little more cautious when it comes to getting exposed to run-off and pollution.

Here is the official party line from the Orange County Ocean Water Protection group…you can find the live Orange County water quality updates at www.ocbeachinfo.com (I’ll find the ones for the other counties in a bit…unless you guys have them to post in the comments section already).

IN OTHER BEACH AREAS, THE ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH STAFF ADVISE SWIMMERS THAT LEVELS OF BACTERIA CAN RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN OCEAN AND BAY WATERS ADJACENT TO STORM DRAINS, CREEKS AND RIVERS DURING AND AFTER RAINSTORMS. THE ELEVATED LEVELS OF BACTERIA MAY CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 3 DAYS DEPENDING UPON THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AND THE VOLUME OF THE RUNOFF. SWIMMERS SHOULD AVOID COASTAL WATERS IMPACTED BY DISCHARGING STORM DRAINS, CREEKS AND RIVERS, AND BEACH USERS SHOULD AVOID CONTACT WITH ANY RUNOFF ON THE BEACH DURING DRY OR WET WEATHER CONDITIONS.

Personally…and find myself doing it all the time…I think you need to weigh the risks of surfing in potentially polluted water against what sort of surf you will be paddling out for. Is it so “good” that you are willing to risk your short and potentially long-term health? For me the answer is usually no…but I know that there have been a few days when it has been soooo good that I couldn’t resist.

At the end of the day…the powers that monitor the water quality say that we should stay out of the water for at least 3 days after heavy rains, particularly in areas with river/creeks/storm-drains.

Thursday’s update – Some surf before the storm

Thursday we will get some new WNW swell (280-300+) arriving right before the approaching storm front. I don’t think waves will get super big before the winds and weather arrive but we should definitely see a pick-up in wave heights.

At this point the morning is looking fairly clean…winds are forecast to be out of the E-SE around 10+ knots. They will steadily increase through the morning (and shift more Southerly) and should be pretty junky by the afternoon.

The more northern areas of Santa Barbara and Ventura will definitely see an increase in wave heights early in the morning. Those areas will be in the waist-shoulder high range while a few of the standout NW facing spots in Ventura see some head high sets. (maybe even bigger on some of the random sets).

Spots further south (The South Bay down through San Diego) will have new energy showing but it will not have filled in that well yet. Most of those areas will be closer to waist-chest high while a few of the best standouts in the South Bay, San Diego, and North OC, see some inconsistent bigger sets.

I think this will be the last chance to surf before we get rain, crappy winds, and more poo water run-off for the weekend…so if you are close to the exposed breaks it will be worth a check. I would still probably look at the cams in the morning just to make sure the wind hasn’t switched around to the S earlier than the forecast.