Storm Watch 2008 or AKA “My, isn’t that a big red blob?”

So I was looking at the charts today when I started to see a nasty little nugget way out in the long-range portion of the forecast.

Check out this NOAA image



This picture is showing significant wave heights in the North Pacific 114 hours (4-5 days) out in the forecast. The wave-heights are in meters, which mean that current forecasts are showing a storm with 30-foot plus seas developing very close to the California coast.

Needless to say that if this storm lives up to the current forecasts then we will see a very, very large W swell arriving early next week (Feb. 24-25th)

My take on this current forecast is this: I am not really ready to jump on the hype-machine just yet. But since the other forecast groups are likely to start freaking out I thought I would at least mention the system.

I am not really sold on this storm for several reasons. First, this storm is still several days from developing, which alone puts it into the “suspect” category. Add in the facts that the different weather models are not quite agreeing on anything (strength, positioning, or movement) about this storm makes it even less reliable. Then to top it off this particular type of storm, which looks like it is being influenced by extra-tropical moisture, are very unstable and hard for the models to predict.

Right now I am expecting a pretty decent sized W-WNW swell for the 24-25th, but I am not putting a lot of faith in it going much bigger than 8-10' at the standouts...and I think there will be some weather and possibly junky conditions coming along with it.

We will start getting much more reliable forecast data as we get to about 48-72 hours away from the storm forming.

Make sure to check back in a couple of days because I will have a better grasp on this swell and we will see if it lives up to forecasts.

Friday’s Surf – Not looking good.

Surf on Friday is going to be pretty stormy. Lots of S wind and rain are forecast to start moving in through the day…eventually the storm peaks out overnight into Saturday (which pretty much writes off the weekend as well.) W-WNW storm swell will be building but there will be practically no spots clean enough to surf.

On Friday morning there may be a small pocket of surfable conditions in the morning. Winds are expected to start out of the S-SE before coming directly onshore. If winds don’t seem very strong when you wake up in the morning it may be worth checking out a break that is protected from the S winds…like parts of La Jolla, the South Bay, a few breaks in Ventura, and some in Central OC. I don’t think it will be great…or even good…but it may be surfable which will be a lot better than most other spots.

Here is a picture of the new swell filling in today.

Thursday’s update – Some surf before the storm

Thursday we will get some new WNW swell (280-300+) arriving right before the approaching storm front. I don’t think waves will get super big before the winds and weather arrive but we should definitely see a pick-up in wave heights.

At this point the morning is looking fairly clean…winds are forecast to be out of the E-SE around 10+ knots. They will steadily increase through the morning (and shift more Southerly) and should be pretty junky by the afternoon.

The more northern areas of Santa Barbara and Ventura will definitely see an increase in wave heights early in the morning. Those areas will be in the waist-shoulder high range while a few of the standout NW facing spots in Ventura see some head high sets. (maybe even bigger on some of the random sets).

Spots further south (The South Bay down through San Diego) will have new energy showing but it will not have filled in that well yet. Most of those areas will be closer to waist-chest high while a few of the best standouts in the South Bay, San Diego, and North OC, see some inconsistent bigger sets.

I think this will be the last chance to surf before we get rain, crappy winds, and more poo water run-off for the weekend…so if you are close to the exposed breaks it will be worth a check. I would still probably look at the cams in the morning just to make sure the wind hasn’t switched around to the S earlier than the forecast.

Wednesday – Waiting for the storm

Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday but with a little less swell. Overall it looks like another longboard day for most spots...average breaks will be in the knee high range. Top NW facing breaks will be closer to waist-chest high on inconsistent sets.

Conditions will be clean in the morning but winds are expected to shift more S-SE by late in the day.

I am probably going to skip the surf on Wednesday unless I suddenly find myself with a ton of time on my hands. If you have to surf, go to a NW exposed beach break, bring your small wave gear and expect to be sitting around for a while between sets. Santa Barbara and most of Northern LA County will be small to almost flat. Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will be the biggest…and a few of the North County beach breaks (like HB) in OC will probably have a few longboard waves as well.

The incoming storm
The storm is still looking pretty strong as we head into the weekend. Looks like bad weather and winds will start pushing through on Thursday and then stick around for most of the weekend. There will be some overhead+ surf from this incoming W storm swell but conditions and water quality will likely be pretty crappy as well. Cross your fingers…there may be a chance that we get at least some WNW swell before the weather hits on Thursday.