Friday, February 12, 2010

Waves for the Weekend – Go surfing

Saturday and Sunday will both be surf days thanks to a mix of new W-NW/SW swells and clean conditions.

So I am looking at the buoys this (Friday) afternoon and both of our swells are starting to show...but they are a little bit behind timewise from what some of the weather/wave modeling suggested they should be, which is yet another reason not having any outer buoys (like the 46006 and the 46059-California that are offline) sucks the big kahuna. If the buoys were up we would have a full day's worth actual measured data to look at instead of glitchy swell models.

Here is a shot of the “nowcast” from CDIP this afternoon…this one was build using the data from about 1pm.

Compare that to the “forecast” for the same period…you can see a little disconnect.

Anyway...enough of my bitching about the craptacular buoys...the swell is on the way and a bunch of the indicator spots are showing some new, but still fairly small, surf this afternoon. On to the weekend.

On Saturday the new W-NW swell (275-300) and the new SW swell (200-215) will start to peak. The W-NW energy will be showing stronger at spots up around Ventura in the morning but all areas will see an increase as we move throughout the day. At the same time the SW swell will be showing strongest through parts of OC and San Diego in the morning but will filter into some of the spots further north as the swell fills in more through the afternoon.

Wave heights in the morning will be in the shoulder-head high+ range for most of the average WNW facing spots…while standouts see overhead+ sets becoming more and more consistent. By the afternoon most of the WNW facing spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a couple of feet overhead. The standout breaks will be running head high to a couple of feet overhead pretty consistently with some sets going several feet overhead at times. The S facing spots only exposed to the SW’er will be smaller…with knee-chest high surf pretty average and some shoulder high+ sets at the standouts. Combo spots, with excellent exposure to both swells will be larger.

Weather/Conditions will be good on Saturday. Look for light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-12 knots but with some areas of onshore texture.

Sunday the W-NW swell and the SW will both continue to peak…holding strong throughout the day.

Look for more shoulder-overhead surf at the standout WNW facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW-NW breaks and the best combo areas will see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some bigger sets going several feet overhead. South San Diego standouts look like they will see the most size thanks to a lot of direct exposure to this swell mix…look for surf in the area to stay pretty consistently overhead to well overhead…with some inconsistent sets going bigger at times.

Winds and weather look good again on Sunday. Light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-knots.

So like I said before…it looks like a good surf weekend. Keep in mind that not every spots is going to be firing…and if you are looking for bigger surf that you might need to hunt around a little more…but there will be enough energy, and enough swell combo, that most exposed spots will be fun. I would watch the high tide in the mornings as well…that may cause a few problems, but fortunately the winds are light enough that we should be able to let the tide drain out a bit before things get too choppy.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/13/2010 Saturday
02:22AM LST 1.4 L
08:18AM LST 5.4 H
03:14PM LST -0.5 L
09:22PM LST 4.1 H

02/14/2010 Sunday
02:53AM LST 1.2 L
08:47AM LST 5.2 H
03:36PM LST -0.3 L
09:43PM LST 4.2 H


er said...

So far as 4:30... our lil stretch of beach is poo.. Onshore winds too!

Anonymous said...

digging the new board below! I saw Tim Stamps once at foamez with a little simmons type board he shaped...sick stuff!

Anonymous said...

onshore weak gutless slop someone get me out of hb?

Anonymous said...

was couple feet OH in central SD this a.m. and then the high tide killed it; tomorrow may be legit