Monday’s Surf – Peaking SW helps to make it a surf day

Monday will be a surf day…but it looks like winds will come onshore early…so the dawn patrol might be the best surf window.

New SW swell (190-215) is going to peak on Monday…it is already showing pretty nicely on the buoys (check out the Dana Point Buoy…)



…and the peak of the energy will be hitting Monday morning and will hold overnight into Tuesday. NW windswell will continue to push through some smaller waves in the background but it will be a bit smaller than we saw over the weekend.



Sizewise…we can expect most of the average S-SW facing spots to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range, with a few bigger waves showing at spots with better SW exposure. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC, parts of San Diego, and a few other well exposed spots throughout Socal, will have chest-head high surf fairly consistently with a few overhead sets mixing in on the lower tides. The bigger sets will be less consistent but fun when they show.

Winds look ok…not great…but manageable. Look for mostly light and variable winds in the morning. The “variable” part of light and variable will be mostly onshore by midmorning…but the dawn patrol winds will be light right around sunup, sticking below 2-3 knots, which should help to keep most spots pretty clean, particularly if they have a little something to knock down the wind. Expect building onshore winds by midmorning…with NW winds 10-15 knots hitting by the afternoon.





So overall it should be pretty surfable…the swell is showing on the buoys and will continue to fill in overnight…winds will be on the light side…and the water is warming up all of which are good arguments to get a few waves tomorrow. I think you are going to find the best shape at the SW facing points and reefs…I saw how the swell was hitting the beach breaks on Sunday and it was a bit lined up when the sets rolled through (though you could surf them if you don’t have a point/reef handy). I am going to give the beach a check in the morning…after checking my trees/flags to see how the wind is doing.

Here are the tides…hope you guys can get a few tomorrow.

06/14/2010 Monday
05:43AM LDT -1.3 L
12:15PM LDT 3.7 H
04:56PM LDT 2.1 L
10:59PM LDT 6.1 H

Waves for the Weekend – Go surfing

Saturday and Sunday will both be surf days thanks to a mix of new W-NW/SW swells and clean conditions.

So I am looking at the buoys this (Friday) afternoon and both of our swells are starting to show...but they are a little bit behind timewise from what some of the weather/wave modeling suggested they should be, which is yet another reason not having any outer buoys (like the 46006 and the 46059-California that are offline) sucks the big kahuna. If the buoys were up we would have a full day's worth actual measured data to look at instead of glitchy swell models.

Here is a shot of the “nowcast” from CDIP this afternoon…this one was build using the data from about 1pm.



Compare that to the “forecast” for the same period…you can see a little disconnect.



Anyway...enough of my bitching about the craptacular buoys...the swell is on the way and a bunch of the indicator spots are showing some new, but still fairly small, surf this afternoon. On to the weekend.

On Saturday the new W-NW swell (275-300) and the new SW swell (200-215) will start to peak. The W-NW energy will be showing stronger at spots up around Ventura in the morning but all areas will see an increase as we move throughout the day. At the same time the SW swell will be showing strongest through parts of OC and San Diego in the morning but will filter into some of the spots further north as the swell fills in more through the afternoon.



Wave heights in the morning will be in the shoulder-head high+ range for most of the average WNW facing spots…while standouts see overhead+ sets becoming more and more consistent. By the afternoon most of the WNW facing spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a couple of feet overhead. The standout breaks will be running head high to a couple of feet overhead pretty consistently with some sets going several feet overhead at times. The S facing spots only exposed to the SW’er will be smaller…with knee-chest high surf pretty average and some shoulder high+ sets at the standouts. Combo spots, with excellent exposure to both swells will be larger.

Weather/Conditions will be good on Saturday. Look for light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-12 knots but with some areas of onshore texture.



Sunday the W-NW swell and the SW will both continue to peak…holding strong throughout the day.



Look for more shoulder-overhead surf at the standout WNW facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW-NW breaks and the best combo areas will see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some bigger sets going several feet overhead. South San Diego standouts look like they will see the most size thanks to a lot of direct exposure to this swell mix…look for surf in the area to stay pretty consistently overhead to well overhead…with some inconsistent sets going bigger at times.

Winds and weather look good again on Sunday. Light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-knots.



So like I said before…it looks like a good surf weekend. Keep in mind that not every spots is going to be firing…and if you are looking for bigger surf that you might need to hunt around a little more…but there will be enough energy, and enough swell combo, that most exposed spots will be fun. I would watch the high tide in the mornings as well…that may cause a few problems, but fortunately the winds are light enough that we should be able to let the tide drain out a bit before things get too choppy.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/13/2010 Saturday
02:22AM LST 1.4 L
08:18AM LST 5.4 H
03:14PM LST -0.5 L
09:22PM LST 4.1 H

02/14/2010 Sunday
02:53AM LST 1.2 L
08:47AM LST 5.2 H
03:36PM LST -0.3 L
09:43PM LST 4.2 H

Monday’s Surf – SW swell with some wind funk

Monday will be rideable but I think that the wind and the higher tides will hamper shape for a lot of the day.

SW swell (200-220) was filling in slowly on Sunday…this will continue to fill in overnight and will peak into Monday morning. NW windswell was also on the way up and will hold into Monday as well. The SW’er is a little on the shadowed/inconsistent side so you need to stick with spots that are exposed to the swell and can pull in a little more of the NW windswell to flesh out the in-between sets.




The SW'er showing on the Oceanside Buoy

Wave heights on Monday will be in the waist-chest high range at most of the average exposed breaks. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC/North SD and Northern LA, will be more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range with a few inconsistent head high sets.

Winds are sort of looking like funky-chicken in the morning. The onshore flow from Sunday night is forecast to continue for most of SoCal…with the strongest bump pushing through the Santa Barbara/Ventura/North LA areas. OC and San Diego are looking slightly cleaner but the onshore bump will return pretty quickly through midmorning. At this point it looks like variable onshore (sort of SW-W-WNW) winds in the 5-8 knot range for the morning. WNW winds 10-15 knots build in fast by midday and hold through the afternoon. Here is the COAMPS for the early morning…



If you are looking for clean, consistent surf you aren’t really going to find it tomorrow. However, there will be some surfable waves and the water is getting almost ridiculously warm for some of our SoCal spots…(I heard the number 73-degrees being bandied about in the North OC area today). I think your best bet is going to be the early morning dawn patrol…we will be coming off a low tide (that bottoms out around 3am) and the winds will be lighter. It will still be a bit of a gamble, so if you live a ways from the beach you might want to wait until there is enough light for a cam check.

Here are the tides for Monday…

03:13AM LDT -0.3 L
09:39AM LDT 3.7 H
02:20PM LDT 2.4 L
08:20PM LDT 5.7 H

Surf for Friday – peaking SW swell and some eddy funk

Friday will be a surf day but you are going to need to be a little picky about your spots.

The SW swell (200-220) that was filling in on Thursday will start to peak on Friday, and turn a little more southerly as it fills in. We will have some minor NW windswell in the background but I don’t expect it to break up much of the SW’er.



Wave heights will be in the chest-shoulder high range for most spots with SW exposure. The top SW facing spots, mostly through South Orange County, North San Diego, and Northern LA, will have shoulder-head high surf with inconsistent plus sets at the standout breaks. Expect a little inconsistency on the sets sometimes...and watch for shadowing from the nearshore islands. If you surf in one of the shadow areas (that you can see on the CDIP map) expect smaller and less consistent sizes.

Winds are also going to be a bit funky. Local forecasts are showing the eddy circulation spin up again tonight. Look for variable onshore winds...sort of S-SW ...but below 10 knots for the morning. It will be enough to crumble up the more exposed breaks so try and find a spot with some protection. WNW winds 10-15 knots will blow through in the afternoon.

The SW’er was already showing some decent energy on Thursday and these sizes will continue into Friday, getting a little bigger and more consistent. The beach breaks are going to be pretty lined up so if you can’t surf a point or reef, try and find some sort of “structure” (for coconutz) or sandbar to try and break up the lines.

Here are the tides...hope you guys get some.

07:15AM LDT 0.0 L
02:08PM LDT 3.5 H
06:32PM LDT 2.7 L