Friday, February 5, 2010

Wet Weekend – Building W-NW swell mix and more rain

Not much of a “surf” weekend despite some new swell…wind and conditions will be pretty problematic for most areas. There may be a few small pockets/windows where you can find some poo-water waves but expect them to be few and far between.

Saturday will see another round of W-NW swell (260-300) starting to arrive along with more wind and rain…overall it is not looking all that surfable…but there will be a few pockets at spots protected from the S winds.

On Saturday expect new surf filling in through the morning as more short-period W swell starts to push in and mix with some increasing but smaller long-period WNW-NW energy (280-300). Wave heights will be in the chest-head high range by the afternoon…along with a few overhead sets mixing in at the top WNW-NW breaks.

Conditions are not looking very fun…S-SE winds 10-20 knots will be on tap through the morning along with more rain and possibly thunderstorms (which you do not want to be sitting in the ocean when one pushes over you). These winds will break later in the day shifting SW-W but holding around 15-20 knots. If there are going to be any real surfable pockets I am betting on the morning while winds are still primarily from the S-SE.

Sunday the winds shift more WNW and the mix of new W-NW swells will start to peak…but conditions look pretty jumbled/hacked up thanks to the wind switching direction. Sizewise it looks like most exposed spots will be in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets mixing in. Top WNW-NW spots, mostly in Ventura, San Diego, and the South Bay, will have sets going consistently overhead with bigger waves hitting the “several feet” overhead range at times.

Like I said…winds don’t look very good on Sunday. W-NW clearing winds, that form up behind a storm front, are expected to blow most of the day…starting off around 10-13 knots for the morning and then hitting 15-20+ knots for the afternoon. This sort of direction and intensity doesn’t do the surf any favors…so plan on pretty junky shape, except in a few select pockets, which unfortunately won’t be as exposed to the bigger WNW-NW energy.

So the weekend is looking pretty jumbled up, at least based on the forecast charts I am seeing today. The whole weather/wind situation is pretty dynamic though…and a ton will depend on how fast the storm move through the areas and the direction that they take. Like I said on Thursday, try and keep a “weather eye” on conditions you might get lucky on a local level and see some manageable shape…of course you will have to deal with water quality, a funky mix of swell, and all the other fun stuff that happens when it rains hard in Socal.

Not a lot of difference in the local regional forecasts but you will still make me happy if you read a few of them.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/06/2010 Saturday
02:37AM LST 4.8 H
10:45AM LST 0.5 L
05:37PM LST 2.7 H
08:57PM LST 2.5 L

02/07/2010 Sunday
03:54AM LST 4.8 H
11:58AM LST 0.1 L
06:54PM LST 3.1 H
10:44PM LST 2.6 L

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Damn rain...