Wet Weekend – Building W-NW swell mix and more rain

Not much of a “surf” weekend despite some new swell…wind and conditions will be pretty problematic for most areas. There may be a few small pockets/windows where you can find some poo-water waves but expect them to be few and far between.

Saturday will see another round of W-NW swell (260-300) starting to arrive along with more wind and rain…overall it is not looking all that surfable…but there will be a few pockets at spots protected from the S winds.



On Saturday expect new surf filling in through the morning as more short-period W swell starts to push in and mix with some increasing but smaller long-period WNW-NW energy (280-300). Wave heights will be in the chest-head high range by the afternoon…along with a few overhead sets mixing in at the top WNW-NW breaks.

Conditions are not looking very fun…S-SE winds 10-20 knots will be on tap through the morning along with more rain and possibly thunderstorms (which you do not want to be sitting in the ocean when one pushes over you). These winds will break later in the day shifting SW-W but holding around 15-20 knots. If there are going to be any real surfable pockets I am betting on the morning while winds are still primarily from the S-SE.



Sunday the winds shift more WNW and the mix of new W-NW swells will start to peak…but conditions look pretty jumbled/hacked up thanks to the wind switching direction. Sizewise it looks like most exposed spots will be in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets mixing in. Top WNW-NW spots, mostly in Ventura, San Diego, and the South Bay, will have sets going consistently overhead with bigger waves hitting the “several feet” overhead range at times.



Like I said…winds don’t look very good on Sunday. W-NW clearing winds, that form up behind a storm front, are expected to blow most of the day…starting off around 10-13 knots for the morning and then hitting 15-20+ knots for the afternoon. This sort of direction and intensity doesn’t do the surf any favors…so plan on pretty junky shape, except in a few select pockets, which unfortunately won’t be as exposed to the bigger WNW-NW energy.



So the weekend is looking pretty jumbled up, at least based on the forecast charts I am seeing today. The whole weather/wind situation is pretty dynamic though…and a ton will depend on how fast the storm move through the areas and the direction that they take. Like I said on Thursday, try and keep a “weather eye” on conditions you might get lucky on a local level and see some manageable shape…of course you will have to deal with water quality, a funky mix of swell, and all the other fun stuff that happens when it rains hard in Socal.

Not a lot of difference in the local regional forecasts but you will still make me happy if you read a few of them.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/06/2010 Saturday
02:37AM LST 4.8 H
10:45AM LST 0.5 L
05:37PM LST 2.7 H
08:57PM LST 2.5 L

02/07/2010 Sunday
03:54AM LST 4.8 H
11:58AM LST 0.1 L
06:54PM LST 3.1 H
10:44PM LST 2.6 L

Waves for the Weekend - Tide Swamp, Fog, and Surf

Saturday and Sunday will have enough swell to be surf days...but the combo of tides, fog, and winds will work hard to hamper our enjoyment.

We will have a couple of SSW-SW swells overlapping this weekend that mix with a bit of background NW windswell and a touch of longer-period (10-12 second) NW swell.

Average S-facing spots, mostly through North LA and a few of the other spots that are sort of on the bubble, will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets.

Standout S-SW facing breaks through Orange County and San Diego will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets at the top spots.

The lame fog will continue at least through Saturday morning (but probably early Sunday as well)...so look for hard to see and lightly textured conditions through the dawn patrols. The fog is forecast to burn off in the afternoons but onshore winds out of the NW at about 12-14 knots slip into its place and helps to slop things up.

Tides will continue to be an issue, particularly through the mornings...we see a 5'+ high tide peak both Saturday and Sunday around 8:45-9:00am both days. This higher tide is going to make the wave heights seem a lot smaller, and shape will suck for many spots, but the swell is out there so we just need to cross our fingers that the tide will drop, the fog lifts, and the winds stay down long enough for conditions to pull themselves together.

If you have to get out and surf early I would try and pick spots that have a little shelter from the foggy onshore texture (spots with high cliffs or a pier/jetty/kelp...something to knock down the light breeze)...you are also going to want to try and hit up a break that can handle the high tide.

Here are the tides

Saturday

02:35AM -0.1' Low
08:43AM 5.3' High
02:48PM 0.8' Low
08:40PM 5.5' High

Sunday

03:03AM 0.2' Low
09:08AM 5.5' High
03:26PM 0.5' Low
09:20PM 5.2' High


The Cosmic Creek contest is down at Salt Creek in Orange County this weekend...so if you weren't planning on watching a contest then you might want to avoid the spot. They are going to be surfing on both Saturday and Sunday so expect limited access to the surf there. If the fog burns off...the contest is sort of cool...you have to ride 70's shapes, which makes for some interesting heats. They always have some sort of other nonsense going on down at the beach so if you got time to kill it might be worth walking down and checking it out.




Have a great weekend...hope you guys can dial in a few waves between all the funk!

Waves for the weekend - a little breezy at times

It looks surfable this weekend but there may be a few issues with the wind particularly on Saturday.

Swellwise for both days we are going to see a mix of SSW swells (185-205), increasing local windswell, and some background WNW energy.

Most spots will hold around waist high with the mix of SSW swell and windswell. The average S facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high with some occasional shoulder high sets.

Standout S facing breaks of Orange County and San Diego will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with inconsistent head high sets. Spots that can combo up on both the SSW'er and the windswell will be a lot more consistent than spots that are working just off the southern hemi swell.

Unfortunately winds will be a little funky, especially on Saturday. It looks like the NW flow that picked up to pretty brisk speeds on Friday will continue to hold overnight into Saturday morning. It should lighten up some but not enough to get the morning sickness off the more exposed beaches.

So for Saturday look for onshore bump out of the W-WSW around 3-5-knots...not enough to blow it out...but expect some slop. Check out the NRL COAMPS forecast...you can see the lighter winds near the coast are just hiding the stronger breeze off the coast.


Things look cleaner on Sunday...the winds back off a bit more Saturday night and maybe open up a better pocket of light winds through the morning. Compare Sunday's COAMPS to Saturday's...lots more of the light blue near the coast which is a good thing.



Like I said...I do think it will be surfable over the weekend...it won't be great but if you have something (like a jetty, pier, kelp, ect) to knock down a little of the wind you can probably find a couple of shwackable sections on the lower tides. I would probably try and surf on Sunday if you only get one shot to surf this weekend...but even then I would probably get a surf camera check in the morning before burning a lot of gas getting to the beach.

Tides for the weekend

Saturday
01:41AM 3.2' High
05:58AM 2.4' Low
12:41PM 5.6' High
08:49PM 0.5' Low

Sunday
04:06AM 3.0' High
06:42AM 2.9' Low
01:54PM 5.3' High
10:26PM 0.4' Low

Have a good one!

P.S. Hope any of you watching the Oakley Newport Pro webcast got a good laugh at me up in the announcers booth with Dave Stanfield.

Waves for the Weekend - Something to ride

Looks like Saturday and Sunday will both have little pockets of surfy-ness...the tide and wind will keep it from getting too fun (we couldn't have that could we?) but there will be something to ride if you have the right gear and more importantly the right attitude.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of S swell (180), some inconsistent background SW energy, and local WNW windswell.

The average areas will be around knee-waist high+. Standout S facing spots, mostly in Orange County, will have some chest-shoulder high sets. The windswell was doing ok at generating some rideable waves on Friday so I expect that to continue at least into Saturday...so look for the standout windswell spots to have some gutless chest high sets.

The tide is probably going to be an issue in the morning...there is a 3'+ high that hits right in the middle of the dawn patrol, which is going to keep things pretty soft and mushy. Shape should improve as it drains off but expect the consistency of the bigger sets to drop off as we head to the low tide as well (we just can't win).

Winds will be mostly light and variable in the morning but there may be some light W flow at the open beaches. Look for W winds 10-15 knots by the late afternoon.

Really the best time to surf will be right as we hit low tide and it starts to fill back in...so we will just have to cross our fingers that the tide wins the race with the wind.

Like most of the week I don't think it will be worth driving very far for surf...the surf-window will be pretty short and the semi-crumbly/choppy shape won't be worth wasting your gas.

Waves for the Weekend – More fun surf and warmer water

Now before you get all worked up about warm water…warm is a relative term. It is no longer ice-cream-headache cold but you are still going to be wearing a wetsuit… Well unless you are covered with a ridiculous amount of man-hair (you know who you are)…then you might be able to trunk it for a few minutes before hypothermia sets in.

Ok on to the surf.

The weekend is looking pretty fun.

We are going to have a mix of the S-SW and WNW swell for both Saturday and Sunday. (with the WNW’er being a bit stronger on Sunday). Wave heights for both days will be in the waist-chest high+ range at the average spots while the standout areas…the good combo break spots…see some shoulder-head high surf.

It will be pretty similar to what we had all week…so if you found a few good waves at your favorite spots over the last few days then you will probably find similar waves there over the weekend too.

Definitely expect the biggest surf to show around San Diego and through select areas in OC, Ventura, and the South Bay. So if you are looking for bigger waves you are going to want to focus on these areas.

Winds should be nice as well…mostly light in the mornings with some moderate onshore texture developing through the afternoons.

Tides will be an issue…same as they have been all week…so expect soft, even smaller, shape as the tide peaks midmorning. The dawn patrol on Sunday may be a bit better than Saturday just because the tide peak is a little later in the day. You will be rolling the dice if you try and wait out the tide…the winds have been getting to it before the shape improves all that much.

Have fun out there…I’ll probably see you in the water.

Waves for the Weekend: Good WNW swell

The WNW swell (285-300) for the weekend is still looking pretty good. We can expect a pretty decent run of waves at the winter spots through both Saturday and Sunday.

We should actually start to see this swell hit our outer nearshore buoys later today and it will fill in along our beaches by tomorrow morning, peaking in the afternoon on Saturday. Expect the swell to hold overnight into Sunday morning before it starts to lose a little steam by Sunday afternoon.

On Saturday and Sunday most WNW facing spots see chest-head high+ surf. Standout breaks in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay, will have sets going overhead to a few feet overhead at times.

FYI: Santa Barbara will be a little left out thanks to shadowing from Point Conception. Expect the breaks in the SB area to be smaller, mostly waist-chest high range at the top breaks and smaller as you move further north through the county. It will be clean and fun throughout the county but it will be much smaller than the other areas. Check out the CDIP forecast…see how there is not much energy hitting Santa Barbara.



Weather looks good for the mornings over the weekend as well. Expect mostly light variable winds through the dawn patrols. NW winds build into the 15-20 knot range during the afternoons.

Finding surf this weekend will be pretty easy…just head to the usual winter spots and you will get some sort of waves. If you are looking for bigger surf then San Diego and Northern Baja will probably be the best call…they will have more exposure to the swell and more different types of breaks to choose from. I think the best shape will be at the points and reefs (in all areas), just because there isn’t much to break up this swell. Beach breaks may be a little lined up, and have some current to fight against, but there will be a few corners on the good sandbars there as well.

Hope you score some waves and have a great weekend!

Weekend waves – Sloppy Conditions possible

Looks like we are going to get the 50/50 mix over the weekend. Saturday looks like we will have decent, rideable surf. Sunday on the other hand is looking sloppy.

Saturday expect mostly small and slow surf for most areas. There will be a slowly building WNW swell in the water but it may not actually amount to that much after it gets worked over by the big tide swing. In general expect mostly knee-waist high longboard waves for the average spots. Standout breaks, mostly in San Diego, will have some bigger sets on the lower tides. Winds are expected to be clean in the morning but turn more onshore in the afternoon.

Sunday a funky little storm drops down the coast and sends in building NW windswell to mix with the increasing WNW swell. W winds (actually a swirling mix of both SW through NW winds) come along with it and we will have onshore sloppy texture for almost everywhere. There will be some bigger waves but I think it is going to be pretty junky and cold…so it might be better to do something else.

Unfortunately Monday is looking pretty similar to Sunday at this point. If that changes for some reason I will drop another update over the weekend.

Get a few fun ones on Saturday if you can!

Have a great weekend everyone.

Waves for the Weekend – Solid WNW swell Hits Saturday

Plenty of surf on tap for the weekend!

We have a strong WNW swell (280-300+) that fills in fast on Saturday. It will be showing for the dawn-patrol (and mixing with our current already healthy WNW swell) so we can expect good-sized waves as soon as the sun comes up. You can see the California Buoy (#46059) is already showing the swell 14’ @ 20-seconds with almost no wind, which means it is nearly pure swell.

You can check out the live buoys here

http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html

From a surfing standpoint you will be basically be in a pick-n-choose mode. If you are looking for larger surf check out the NW facing standout breaks, particularly in San Diego and Ventura. If you are looking for smaller surf then check the lesser exposed or shadowed breaks. Average W facing breaks will have consistent shoulder-overhead sized surf while those standout areas see sets going overhead to a few feet overhead at times.

There is a high tide that pushes through mid-morning so you may want to work around that but in general there should be enough swell to keep most spots working even as it peaks.

Best shape will likely be at the points and reefs on this swell…there is enough size, and not much to cross up the swell, that beach breaks may be a little walled. Solid sandbars, jetties, and piers will also serve as good backups.

Personally I am just going to get up and go to the beach in the morning…no need to look at the cameras or the buoys…just get up and start checking the surf.

See you guys down there!

Waves for the weekend – New NW swell on Sunday

Looks like this weekend will be fun…weather will be a bit iffy on Saturday but winds should shift back offshore on Sunday.

Swellwise we will see fading surf on Saturday. Most spots will drop to about knee-waist high. San Diego spots (and maybe some South Bay breaks) will have some chest high+ sets.

Sunday we see new NW swell (290-300+) start moving in. This sort of swell angle is only going to show at some spots…look for the best waves from this swell to show in Southern Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego (from La Jolla southward). Those expose areas will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few of the best breaks hitting head high on the sets. San Diego may start off a little slow in the morning as well…should be better by the afternoon and into Monday.

Other lesser exposed areas will be closer to knee-waist high off a mix of local windswell and leftover S-SW swell.

To me it looks like Saturday is going to be a longboard day…winds may not even be that good…so it will be a sleep-in, check the cameras, see if I have anything else to do, and then longboard sort of morning.

Sunday is looking better…particularly if you are up in Ventura or the South Bay. San Diego will be bigger as well but the swell will take a while to fill in down there. I am not sure if this swell will really be worth driving that far, but it is a holiday weekend so you might feel like you have the time.

Surf over the weekend

Looks like we will have some small, but playful surf over the weekend.

I actually got out for a surf today and while it wasn’t great there were some playful corners that snuck through every once in a while.

The weekend’s surf will be very similar to Friday. We will have a mix of WNW (285-300) and SW swell (190-210) that will keep wave heights in the knee-waist high+ range at the average exposed breaks while the standouts spots…mostly in San Diego, parts of Southern Ventura, and Southern OC…see some chest-shoulder high sets. There are a couple of little swell pulses that overlap for the next couple of days so wave heights will stay pretty steady...maybe even get a bit more consistent by Sunday.

Tides will still be an issue so expect soft shape at times. Winds on the other hand look light for the next couple of days so you can probably wait for the tide to swing around and still get decent shape.

I think your best bet for surf this weekend will be at the combo beach breaks. Biggest waves will be in San Diego but it won’t be worth driving very far. Again check the cams in the morning…mostly to make sure the tide hasn’t shut it down.

Have a good weekend everybody…my next update will probably be on Sunday night.

Surfing for the weekend – Some waves on Sunday

Saturday is pretty much a write-off. There will be waves in the form of fading W swell and lots of local windswell. Unfortunately winds will be out of the SW and W around 15-20+ knots…there is no real protection from that wind direction so pretty much every break will be blown out. I would plan on sleeping in, or doing chores, or staring at the wall…because all of it will likely be better than surfing. Water quality will be pretty bad too so just add that to another reason not to surf.

Sunday on the other hand is looking better. Winds are expected to shift around to the N and drop to about 10 knots as the front moves out. Water quality will still be an issue…so keep that in mind.

At this point Sunday’s wave heights will depend a lot on how much windswell is still in the water as the storm moves off. In the morning I expect most breaks to continue to see waist-shoulder high surf through the morning with some bigger sets at the standout W facing breaks (in the usual suspects in Ventura, South Bay, and SD). Expect size and consistency to drop as you head into the afternoon/evening. The surf will continue to drop as we head into Monday too.

I think I will take a look at the surf on Sunday…probably look at the cams first and then if it looks semi-decent actually take a drive down the beach. I wouldn’t drive very far…but if you are stir-crazy and don’t mind a little hepatitis from the water you might be able to pick off a few waves early Sunday.

Have a great weekend!