Surf for Thursday – Building NW windswell (and the winds to go with it)

Thursday does not look like much of a surf day.

Local WNW-NW windswell will start to build on Thursday afternoon/evening as a weak cold front moves in from the outer waters brining along blustery NW winds. Leftover NW swell (290-300) and weak SW swell (200-220) will hold most of the day then move into the background as the windswell increases.



Mostly small surf will continue to push through during the morning on Thursday…look for the average spots to hold in the knee high range with some inconsistent waist high+ sets showing during the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be in the waist-high range with some chest high sets.

The building windswell will start to add some size to the most exposed NW spots of Santa Barbara/Ventura later in the day…not much really…just a little bump before sundown. Expect this windswell to increase overnight into Friday morning.

The morning doesn’t look particularly clean on Thursday…NW winds will be piling up a few miles off the coast and should come onshore fairly quickly. There may be a little pocket during the dawn patrol…sort of light/variable flow in the more protected areas…and light onshore at the more open spots. NW winds will build in quick by midmorning and will eventually hit the 10-15+ knot range for most areas, while Santa Barbara and Ventura see gusts hitting in the 20+ knot range. Here is a shot of the COAMPS for Thursday morning…



Hmmm…small morning leftovers with some light bump…or building windswell slop with stiff NW winds…for some reason neither sound that appealing to me…I think I might stay in and surf my pillow a little longer. If you have to surf…well bring the small wave gear in the morning, and try and find a protected/sheltered spot for the afternoon (and still plan on bringing the small wave gear). It looks pretty breezy for the next couple of days…but we may see some clean up for the weekend…hopefully the windswell will hold on long enough to have something to ride once the conditions even out.

Here are the tides…

11/12/2009 Thursday
05:39AM LST 5.5 H
12:18PM LST 0.7 L
06:02PM LST 4.2 H
11:54PM LST 1.0 L

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Waves for Wednesday – Still on the small side

Wednesday won’t be much of a surf day mostly due to lack of swell.

We are going to have a mix of NW windswell and inconsistent SW energy (200-220). Neither swell, even when combo’d up, will amount to much…add in a high tide through most of midday and you have a good recipe for near-flatness.



Wave heights are going to hold around knee high for most of the average exposed areas. The standout NW facing breaks and the really good SW/NW combo spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some rare (but still soft) chest high sets.

Winds look ok…sort of variable/eddy in the morning…lets just say light and variable but with a southerly tint to winds in the OC/SD areas. Generally it should be clean but there may be a pocket or two of texture. WNW winds 10-14 knots will move in through the afternoon.



Not much to ride tomorrow…but if you have to surf I would bring the micro-wave gear, and a really positive outlook on life...even the top spots are going to be a bit bogged down by the lack of waves and the building tide. If you are committed to surfing tomorrow no matter what…try and get on it early before the winds and the tide start to shut it down.

Here are the tides…

12:20AM LDT 3.5 H
05:35AM LDT 1.9 L
12:04PM LDT 5.3 H
07:33PM LDT 1.0 L

Almost flatness for Friday – weak waves continue

It won’t be a surf day on Friday.

Conditions will be great...and it won’t be completely flat...it will just feel like it for most areas. We are going to have a mix of small leftover NW energy, traces of SW swell (210-220), and some weak leftover tropical noise from the S-SW.



Wave heights are basically going to be in the ankle-knee high range for most spots on Friday. A few of the best NW facing breaks, and the really exposed combo spots, will have some knee-waist high waves...and just maybe, if you are like 4’9” and you wish really really hard, there will be some waist high+ sets on the low-to-high tide push in the morning.

Winds will be decent...mostly light and variable...maybe a touch of texture here and there. Cleanest in the morning with building onshore bump in the afternoon.

There isn’t a best bet tomorrow...so don’t burn a lot of time hunting for something that isn’t there. If you “have” to surf then bring the vintage death log, a positive attitude, and try and get on it early in the morning before the winds and tides get it.

Here are the tides...it will be Lake Pacific on the high tide peaks.

03:47AM LDT 0.2 L
09:51AM LDT 4.7 H
03:44PM LDT 1.2 L
09:38PM LDT 5.3 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/3/2009

Forecast Overview

Small surf on tap for the next couple of days…looks like longboards will be needed for most spots. Look for a slight pickup by Sunday/Monday as a new, but small, SW swell starts to creep in and the local windswell inches up a couple of notches.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
We see a small mix of mostly leftover energy. Weak WNW-NW swell will mix with weak SW swell, and the NW windswell will come up slightly. Most spots will be in the knee-high range while the standout NW facing breaks and the combo spots see some waist-waist high+ sets on the morning low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable through the morning with some pockets of light texture. WNW winds 10-14 knots move in through the afternoon.

Saturday
We see more leftovers…and touch more NW energy. Expect mostly the same soft surf…knee high waves at the average breaks and a few waist high+ sets at the best windswell and combo breaks. Winds/Weather: Light and variable again, maybe a touch of S texture in SD and OC but cleaner in other areas. WNW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Sunday
Our surf comes up slightly…a new, but shadowed and small, SW swell (200-220) starts to move in and mix with slightly building NW windswell. Average spots, with exposure to the SW’er, will be around knee-waist high. The standout combo breaks, mostly through San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range, but inconsistent on the sets. Winds/Weather: More light/variable morning conditions but with a touch more westerly winds early. Still clean most places. Look for building WNW winds around the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Not too much going on up north right now…we do have a couple of weak low-pressures pushing through the higher latitudes, right up under the Aleutians and deeper in the Gulf of Alaska, but unfortunately they are both going to be positioned too North for them to send us any real swell. Over the next few days we are going to see a mix of increasing local NW windswell and some background NW energy (295-300) from those lows. It looks like the peak of this mix will move in over the weekend and again early next week with surf around waist high at the NW facing spots and maybe a few chest high sets at the best standout windswell breaks.



Long-range charts aren’t looking great right now either, but there is a tropical system that is forecast to go extra-tropical in about 5-6 days…as it does it looks like it will pump some extra energy into the storm track. If we get lucky we might start seeing some better looking swell activity around the middle of the month.

South Pacific
The SPAC hasn’t been all that active over the last few days…in fact it is looking like we are going to see a bit of a “small-spell” through the beginning of September. It won’t be flat or anything, but I am not expecting any significant swells from the region at this time. So for the next few days we can expect a mix of SW swell (200-220) moving in from a weak mid-latitude storm that sort of drifted slowly across the SPAC just under the Southern Pacific Islands. Waves from this one will be minor, knee to maybe waist high, as it limps in over the weekend (Sept 5-6th.)



This weak storm did eventually re-energize slightly as it moved into a better position in the swell window, so we can expect a pick up in SW energy (200-210) later on the 6th and then peaking the 7-9th. Peaking is sort of a relative term since the surf will continue to hold around knee-waist high, but a few of the standouts will have some chest high sets.

Further out on the forecast charts there is some slightly better looking storm action. We have a couple of storms, one underneath New Zealand and another over by Chile that will both likely send us some swell. This next round of swell, both SE (170-180) and SW (205-220) will begin arriving on September 12th with chest high+ waves at the best exposed spots. Those waves will hang around for a few days and it looks like more similar sized SW energy will help to reinforce the first pulse around the 15-16th.

Like I said…not a ton going on…hopefully the forecast models will start showing some more activity in the next couple of days.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Not much going on in the Tropics (for SoCal), though TS Jimena is trying to drown a lot of central Baja.



Jimena moved over land yesterday, and the combination of moving off of the water and upper level wind shear has pulled apart her convection and greatly reduced her intensity. She is expected to dissipate back to a remnant low as she drifts back to the west. No waves from her, in any form, are expected as she weakens.



Elsewhere, there is a bit of tropical disturbance SSW of the tip of Baja…but it looks like a low chance that it will develop into something anytime soon.


Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Adam Wright

Waves for Wednesday – A few gutless small ones

Wednesday is not looking like a surf day.

It will be rideable, with maybe a couple of “ok” pockets but the lack of swell and increasing winds will hamper shape in the morning and the building tide and gusty afternoon winds will kill in by the end of the day.

Swellwise we will have a mix of new energy out there...some new SW swell (200-220), some weak tropical S swell from Carlos (who just won’t die on his way to Hawaii), and some building local NW windswell.



Despite the mix of swells there just isn’t a ton of energy in the water and that is going to translate to small surf. On average the sort-of exposed spots will be around knee high with some inconsistent waist high sets. The better breaks will be more consistently around waist high. The standout breaks will be waist-chest high on the better tides.

The winds look a little sloppy tomorrow...both the COAMPS and the NWS models are calling some building W winds in the morning. I think it may start clean around sun-up but the texture should start building by mid-morning. Expect W winds around 5-8 knots by midmorning and more bump in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.

Overall I am expecting more of the gutless waves we have been riding for the last couple of days...sort of workable if the tide is low, or if you have the right gear, but frustrating at times due to the lack of push. Look for the biggest surf through the best exposed areas of San Diego and Orange County but don’t drive very far for the gutlessness...you might as well save your gas money for some better waves.

Here are the tides...

03:05AM LDT 2.8 H
08:31AM LDT 1.8 L
03:41PM LDT 4.8 H
11:32PM LDT 1.2 L

Wednesday's Waves - Small and Clean

Wednesday is looking pretty weak...overall I don't think it is going to be much of a surf day.

Our SSW swell will have mostly faded out while WNW energy (mostly local windswell) will remain on the small side. Add in that we still have some pretty fat (no ph in this one) tides and I think that we have a recipe for small gutless surf.

Average spots will be in the knee high range with some rare waist high sets. Expect almost all of the surf to mush/shorebreak out as the tide fills in midmorning.

The top S-SW facing spots will see mostly knee-waist high waves on inconsistent sets through the morning. A few of the best breaks may have some chest high waves sneaking through at times. The building tide-swamp will kill off any sort of fun at these spots too.

Winds look good for the morning...mostly light and variable to light offshore. Winds pick up out of the W-NW around 10-15 knots (surprise!) by the afternoon.

Personally I am not going to spend a lot of time thinking about surfing on Wednesday...I may load up the longboard or my small wave fishy board and swing by the beach in the morning but I think it is going to be hard sell to get myself to paddle out. If you aren't close to the water I wouldn't spend any significant time/money/gas trying to check it...maybe just a camera check on the lower tides in the morning and then get back to surfing your pillow.

Tides for Wednesday

04:15AM 1.5' Low
10:20AM 5.7' High
05:20PM 0.3' Low
11:22PM 3.9' High

Thursday's Surf - Holding pattern

Thursday will be a (small) surf day.

Look for the surf to be very similar to Wednesday. We will have a mix of inconsistent SW energy, some local NW windswell, and some background S swell.

Most spots will hold around knee-waist high with a few plus sets sneaking through on the tide push.

Standout S-SW facing spots will have some chest-chest high+ sets on average with a few inconsistent bigger sets on the better tides. Shape looks best at the S-SW facing combo breaks that have a better shot at pulling in the mix of swells...Areas like North San Diego, South OC, and parts of the South Bay will see the biggest surf sizes.

Winds and weather will continue to be only "ok" since there is still some leftover sloppiness coming off that upper-level low-pressure. Look for light/variable to light-onshore texture showing for most areas throughout the morning. The really exposed breaks will have some W winds around 3-5 knots while the more protected breaks stay cleaner. Look for NW winds around 10-15 knots to move in through the afternoon.

Again I wouldn't expect much from the surf on Thursday. It will be rideable...but you are going to want to stick with your smaller/softer wave gear like longboards and fishy shapes. Shape will be a mix of small peaks, sort of boggy shoulders, and a bit of crumble to it in some areas. If you can, try and stick with the tide push where we can get the most out of the small swells.