Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/28/2009

Forecast Overview

We are going to see a mix of moderate S-SW swells mixing with WNW-NW energy over the next couple of days. Winds don’t look that great for Tues-Wed as a weak cold front pushes over the area…but we will likely see some form of a cleanup by Thursday. Rideable sizes will continue through the week..and a stronger S-SW swell will push in through the upcoming weekend.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
NW energy (290-300) and S-SW swell (190-210) will both start backing down while the local W-WNW windswell starts to strengthen. Waves will hold in the waist-chest high range for most areas while the standout SW/NW combo spots see some chest-shoulder high sets. Shape will continue to be a bit suspect as onshore winds spin up early and hold steady through most of the day. Winds/Weather: Looks like variable onshore winds in the morning...mostly light but with a chance for some moderate texture in the more open exposed beaches. Look for building WNW winds 10-20 knots as a weak cold front pushes through the area later in the day.

Wednesday
We will have a mix of leftovers from earlier in the week, as well as a new S-SW swell (190-220), and steady NW windswell. Wave heights don’t change much…still mostly waist-chest high at the average exposed areas. Top spots, mostly NW/SW combo spots, continue to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range…with a couple of bigger sets at the standout windswell-combo spots. Winds/Weather: Still a bit funky…sort of variable directions in the morning, with a couple of models showing almost an eddy type circulation developing as the cold front pushes in W-NW winds. Don’t expect clean conditions for most areas…but if the eddy does start up…we could see some slightly cleaner shape at spots protected from the S winds.

Thursday
Size and consistency come up a notch as more S-SW swell (190-210) and a weak WNW swell blends with the local WNW windswell. Conditions also look like the will improve dramatically with some potentially offshore winds developing as the cold front moves out. Average spots will continue to see surf in the waist-chest high range but with more consistency on the bigger waves. Standout spots see mostly chest-shoulder high surf but with a few near head high sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: So far it looks like we might have some mild Santana conditions develop by Thursday, which would mean light-moderate offshore winds though the morning and midmorning. This isn’t set in stone yet (still a couple of days before it develops)…but it worth keeping in mind as you plan your surf week.



Long-Range

North Pacific
NW swell has been pushing into a few of the best NW facing spots over the last few days but hasn’t made that much of an impact on the more “average” spots. This should slowly change over the next couple of days as the last part of the swell, that had a more westerly fetch, pushes in some WNW-NW swell (285-300) that mixes in with steady short-period windswell coming in from a similar direction. Look for chest-shoulder high sizes at the better expose winter spots through the middle of the week and then fading sizes as we head towards the next weekend.



Further Out things don’t look good for the NPAC…high-pressure has built up across the Gulf of Alaska and is now shutting down the storm track. Check it out on the chart…you can see the high-pressures starting to bridge across most of the mid-latitudes. Basically these ridges are blocking the sweet spot in our swell-window…so from a long-range perspective it looks like swell production is going to be very minimal in this region for the time being.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been pushing out some playful sized S-SW swells (190-210) for the last few days…and a new chest-shoulder high sized pulse will hit on Wednesday and hold waves through Thursday before dropping later in the week. Like most Southern Hemi swells…sets will be inconsistent, but fun when they do show.



Further out we will see a stronger, more consistent, S-SW swell (180-210) that starts to move in with long-period energy on Saturday Oct 3rd…and then likely peaks Sunday/Monday Oct 4-5th. At this point it looks like this new swell will push most the average exposed spots into the chest-shoulder high range while the standout breaks will be shoulder-head high, possibly with some bigger sets mixing in at the best S facing breaks. I expect this swell to stick around for a couple of days after the “peak” hits…likely we will continue to see fun/rideable surf through the 6th before it significantly drops.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
This region is looking pretty quiet right now (though it seems like every time I type that a new storm forms…maybe I will just keep writing it). At this point the hurricane models aren’t calling for any development for the next couple of days…but I have noticed some activity showing on the larger-scale GFS models later in the week. Keep an eye on the tropics this week, we might see something new spin up by Friday.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 1, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Waves for the weekend – Fun but foggy

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days…but you might have to push through some fog to get waves.

We are going to have a mix of fun surf over the weekend as we see a combination of overlapping S-SW swells blending with more NW swell. It won’t be huge or anything but the well exposed areas can expect some shoulder-head high sets as the swells mix together.



On Saturday we are going to see a mix of building S-SW swell (190-210), holding NW leftovers, and a new long-period NW swell (290-300) fill in later in the afternoon/evening.

Saturday’s wave heights will average in the waist-chest high range at most of the “sort-of” exposed breaks. The top S-SW facing spots and the good southerly orientated combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range on most of the sets…but with a few head high waves sneaking through on the biggest ones.

By Sunday the NW swell (290-300) will peak and mix with some holding S-SW swells (190-210) and a touch of local windswell.

Sunday’s surf will hit slightly different from Saturday…look for the new NW swell (290-300) to fill in and peak…pushing the NW facing spots into the waist-chest high+ range and the NW standouts (mostly in Ventura and San Diego) into the chest-shoulder high+ sizes. The top NW facing combo spots will be a touch bigger…with more consistent big sets in the shoulder-head high range. The S facing breaks will lose a little bit of size…but overall will continue to see playful waist-chest high waves at the better exposed areas.

Winds look good for the weekend…mostly light and variable to light offshore for most spots. Looks like offshore mostly in the Santa Barbara/Ventura/North LA areas…and then mostly variable as you move down into OC/San Diego. Afternoon winds will stay on the light side…holding out of the W-WNW around 10-12 knots.

Saturday Morning


Sunday Morning


Fog will be an issue throughout the weekend…so expect limited visibility through the mornings.



So like I said…plenty of playful sized fall surf on tap for the weekend. Nothing outstanding, but enough to get out and ride. The fog is a bit of a bummer…but if you don’t mind using some of your Surf-Jedi powers it shouldn’t be too bad. It is sort of a hard call for the best-bet spots this weekend…a lot depends on how your local spots pull in the various swells…I think that Saturday will see the best shape at the points/reefs, with fun, but slightly sectiony shape at the beach breaks. Sunday will have a chance at more crossed up surf with the building NW swell, which could groom out a few more shoulders at the beach breaks.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend!

Saturday
07:07AM LDT 3.6 H
10:21AM LDT 3.4 L
04:02PM LDT 4.3 H

Sunday
12:06AM LDT 0.8 L
07:19AM LDT 3.7 H
11:58AM LDT 3.1 L
05:24PM LDT 4.4 H

Surf for Friday – let me check…yep it’s still freaking hot

Friday will be a surf day.

On Friday we are going to continue to see a mix of S-SW swell (180-220), NW swell (290-300), and some background S energy from TS Nora. The Southern Hemi energy looks like it will pulse up a touch as new swells move in and overlap the existing energy throughout the day.



Wave heights for tomorrow will continue to be in the waist-chest high range for most of the average S-SW breaks and the ok combo spots. Top S-SW facing breaks, and the good combo breaks, will be in the waist-shoulder high range with a few head high sets mixing in at times.

Winds will be good again tomorrow…light offshore for most areas and a few spots with moderate offshore conditions. Again it won’t be a full blown Santana but it will have enough oomph to cancel out the onshore bump that usually starts up midmorning…so we can expect cleaner conditions to hold on longer than normal. It will be stupid hot inland again…beach temps will be around the low 80’s.



Overall Friday looks pretty fun...winds will be good, there will be enough swell to ride most places, and if you stay on land you will likely melt. I think that the S-SW facing points and reefs will be the best call shapewise tomorrow…beach breaks are going to be a bit walled, particularly on the bigger sets but they should be an ok fallback if you don’t feel like surfing with tons of people. I think you should be able to ride most of your small-medium wave gear at the average spots…maybe a faster board at the top breaks. The tides are still a little funky, but I have noticed that they haven’t been a total surf-killer like they could be…hopefully you have dialed in your favorite spots over the last couple of days and can plan accordingly. (Mine have actually be working a bit better as the tide has been topping out…)

Anyways…here are the tides…hope you guys get a few pre-weekend ones tomorrow. (only 2 tide changes on Friday)

02:14PM LDT 4.4 H
11:01PM LDT 1.0 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/24/2009

Forecast Overview

Fall fun-time continues as we see a mix of overlapping NW and S-SW swells as we head into the weekend. A bigger NW swell (as well as more S-SSW swell) move in mostly on Sunday and help hold more fun-sized surf into early next week. Expect clean morning conditions and mostly light winds over the next few days.

Short Range (next 3 days now with a 4th day free!)

Friday
Our swell mix bumps up a bit on Friday as we see some more SSW-SW swell (190-210) pushing in from the South Pacific, NW energy holds, and we see a touch of tropical energy from TS Nora. Wave heights will be in the waist-chest high range for most S-exposed spots and the ok combo breaks. Standout S facing spots, mostly through Orange County and parts of North San Diego (and North LA), will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range. Best waves push through in the morning with the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Saturday
Our surf will be more consistent as we see the blend of S-SW swells (190-210) start to peak, NW windswell continues to hold, and new longer-period NW swell (290-300) starts to slowly fill in through the afternoon. Look for most breaks to continue to hold around waist-chest high but with more consistent sets showing throughout the day. Standout S-SW facing breaks, as well as the excellent combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable/light-offshore for the morning. WNW winds around 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The NW swell (290-300) peaks while the S-SW swell (180-210) mix starts to drop off. Not a ton of difference in overall wave heights…but we will have slightly different top breaks. Look for average S-facing spots to hold around knee-chest high. Standout NW facing spots and good NW/SW combo breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets…with a couple of bigger waves mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.

Monday
The trailing parts of the NW swell (290-300) will continue to push through while we see some leftover, but still fun S-SW swell (190-210) mixing in as well. Look for more knee-chest high typy surf at the average exposed spots with some chest-shoulder high sets at the top NW facing breaks and the best NW/SW combo spots. Winds/Weather: Conditions continue to look nice…light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have had a decent run of storm activity pushing across the NPAC over the last few days. A couple of fast moving, higher-latitude low-pressures that came through early in the week managed to send out some playful, but mostly steeply angled NW energy (290-300) that started to hit on Thursday. Fortunately a following storm moved in and set up some more fetch after that initial pulse…so it looks like the waist-chest high+ NW’er will hold into Friday and Saturday.



As we move through the weekend a new, stronger, NW swell (290-300) will start to push some in some long-period energy in late on 26th...fill in more on the 27th, eventually peaking the afternoon of the 27th into the morning of the 28th. At this point it looks like we are going to get waist-chest high sized surf at the average NW facing spots...top NW breaks, mostly in San Diego and Ventura, will see chest-shoulder high+ sets. The angle on this energy looks pretty steep…so there will probably be a fair amount of shadowing…so don’t expect a ton of size or consistency outside of the better NW/Winter regions.



Further out it looks like the later elements of the storm that will send us the NW’er for Sunday managed to keep some fetch aimed our way…and even managed to position it a little better than the first shot of swell…so I am expecting the NW’er to hold through the middle of next week and continue to send in fun sized surf. The swell angle looks like it will shift a bit more westerly…more (285-300)…which means more spots will be able to pull in waves from this portion of the swell. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf showing at the top WNW-NW spots through the 30th before it starts to fade out.

South Pacific
Fun pulses of S-SW swell will continue to push into SoCal over the next few days…with a couple of them mixing together nicely over the weekend setting up chest-shoulder high surf at the better exposed spots.



Further out a new storm is pulling together SE of New Zealand that will be sending out new S-SSW (180-205) for the beginning of October. At this point it looks like we will start to see new long-period energy from this one showing around October 3rd…likely peaking on the 4-5th. It looks good for waist-shoulder high surf at most spots, and has the potential for some head high sets at the standout breaks as it peaks. This storm still has a couple of days to develop...so we should have a better grasp on wave-heights/arrival times by early next week.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Tropical Storm Nora is still holding together down in the tropics…she isn’t super impressive but she will managed to send in some background tropical swell through Friday and Saturday. It won’t be much, but it will likely help to fill in the more dominant S-SW swell coming in from the SPAC.





It looks like TS Nora will fall apart over the next day or so…looks like she will have dropped back to a remnant low by the weekend.

Further East there are a few large sections of thunderstorms near Central America that are worth keeping an eye on…but at this point it looks likes any development will be slow.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 28, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Surf for Monday – Is the circus over yet?

Monday will be a sort-of surf day…but we are still going to have wind and tide issues for a lot of areas.

On Monday we are going to see a mix of S-SW swell (190-215) from a couple of overlapping southern hemi swells. We are also going to have some background, and very short period, NW windswell. The S-SW swells have slowly been shifting more southerly over the last day so more energy has been starting to slip into spots that were shadowed earlier in the weekend. Check out the current CDIP…



Wavewise the average spots are going to be in the waist-chest high range through the early morning. The standout breaks, mostly through Orange County, the more exposed areas of North LA, and a few North San Diego spots, will be running more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range…maybe even a couple of bigger ones on the early low tide. The building tide is going to swamp out a few of the more sensitive by midmorning so if your local spot needs a lower tide you are going to want to get on it pretty early.

Winds will be similar to what we had over the weekend…so expect a light, but consistent, westerly flow around 4-8 knots through the morning and then W-NW winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon. The current NWS wind model is showing a cleaner pocket around the South OC and North SD area (right through the areas that have the higher coastal hills)…so there may be a few cleaner waves through there in the morning. Don’t expect it to last too long though.



Overall I think your best bet is going to be to try and surf the dawn patrol. The winds will be lighter and the tide will be coming off the negative low (that hits around 4am)…the combo of that with the fun-size swell should set up a few rideable (maybe even fun) waves at the S facing spots. I don’t think you should drive very far tomorrow…the conditions won’t hold up, and with both increasing wind and higher tides the shape will fall apart fast. The waters temps are still jacked up too (HB Guards are calling the pier 55 degrees today)...bring all of your rubber if you are going out.

Here are the tides…and if you get a chance, maybe pick up a piece of trash when you are heading back to the car in the morning (you guys are probably on it already…sorry I am not usually so earthy in the forecast…the beach is just nasty after the big holidays.)

04:05AM LDT -0.6 L
10:34AM LDT 3.6 H
02:58PM LDT 2.4 L
09:05PM LDT 5.8 H