Surf for Thursday – Nothing to get fired up about

Thursday will have a few rideable waves but a combination of spotty winds, building tides, and fluky/inconsistent swell will keep the fun factor pretty low.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of NW windswell, some inconsistent/fading SW swell (190-220), and some tropical SE swell (155-170) from TS Blas. Like I said yesterday this mix of swells don’t blend together all that well…so we don’t get the boost in size like we would from swells that have a little more compatible swell directions.



Most breaks will continue to hold around the knee high range on Thursday with some inconsistent waist high sets showing on the lower tides. The better exposed average SW or SE facing spots will have some slightly bigger sets sneaking through at times. The standout spots, basically the excellent combo spots and maybe a few of the really good SE/SW facing spots, will have more consistent waist high surf with a few chest high sets showing on the really, really, really, really good sandbars. If you can’t take the hint…it will need to be a really good SE/SW exposed spot to get the bigger waves.

The winds will be a bit squirrelly as well…there is a weak trough of low-pressure holding in the upper levels that is enhancing the onshore flow. The eddyish circulation is supposed to continue on Thursday…blowing southerly winds through San Diego/OC with some swirly flow through LA and some W-NW winds through Santa Barbara and Ventura. Winds should be on the lighter side, around 5-6 knots for the morning. Expect moderate onshore winds in the 10-15 knot range out of the W-WNW by the afternoon.



Not much to get excited about…though there is always a chance that the tropical swell will get a boost tomorrow (reflecting how TS Blas moved into a more open portion of the tropical swell window). With the wind being funky and the other swells being on the marginal side…I wouldn’t commit much energy to the surf. I would stick to checking the cameras and wind observations in the morning and if you don’t see anything that floats your boat then going back to bed and surfing your pillow for a little while longer.

Here are the tides…

06/24/2010 Thursday
03:11AM LDT -0.9 L
09:36AM LDT 3.6 H
02:06PM LDT 2.2 L
08:18PM LDT 6.1 H (swampthing!)

Waves for the Weekend - Tropical SE swell and Santa Ana Winds

Let me start off this forecast by saying...Saturday is probably going to suck. I know the title of the post says "Tropical SE swell and Santa Ana Winds" but the winds don't get good till Sunday or Sunday afternoon.

Sorry to be a Debbie-Downer but I wanted to stop you guys from tearing down to the beach with your demented imaginations conjuring up surf porn featuring 100-yard tropical swell barrels getting blown open by toasty warm offshore winds. (I do the same thing).

Yes, the tropical SE swell hits on Saturday, but so does a buttload of W-NW winds. NWS is issuing Gale Warnings for waters out in the Nearshore islands tonight and they expect a good chunk of those onshore winds to hit our beaches on Saturday...at least 15-20+ knots in some areas. Also, just to jump on the dead-horse and beat it some more, the SE'er is going to be very select in what spots will pull in the full shot of energy. So the combo of onshore winds and a limited swell angle sort of poop on Saturday's waves.

Surfwise I am expecting a waist-chest high+ combo of SSW-SW and local NW swell for the average exposed spots on Saturday. The SE swell will be moving in steadily through the morning and should begin peaking in the afternoon. Those average SE facing breaks will eventually start hitting the shoulder-head high+ range, while the SE standouts see some sets going several feet overhead before sundown.

(Check it out...some of the Norbert swell is starting to hit the SoCal Buoys this afternoon.)



Sunday the winds for the morning are still a little iffy (it depends on how fast Saturday's junk blows through), but by midday and into the afternoon it looks like winds shift to the N-NE around 10-15+ knots and set up Santa Ana conditions. This will continue through the evening and into Monday.

Check out this Sea-Level-Pressure map from the University of Hawaii.

now that is surf porn!

This one is actually for Monday morning...you can see the position of the high-pressure over the Pacific Northwest, and the interior low down by the Sea of Cortez. Most importantly is the way the pressure gradient (the red lines) sets up over SoCal. You want to see that funky little dogleg that almost makes the lines look like they come up from the SE (my red arrows are sitting right on top of it).

Anyway surfwise on Sunday we can basically expect the same thing as Saturday afternoon. Most spots see average waves in the waist-chest high+ range. Top spots will be around shoulder high on sets. The SE facing spots will be running shoulder-overhead for areas with ok exposure. Standout SE facing breaks in N.OC and a few other areas will be running consistently overhead with sets going several feet overhead at times.

Surfing this weekend will probably take a little patience, and if you can spare it, I would probably spend a little time on the computer checking the cams/winds/buoys just to see how everything is coming together. I know it is can be a drag but it will definitely help you from getting burned by this mix of funky weather and swells. Obviously if I only had one day to surf I would pick Sunday hands down, the swell mix will be peaking and the winds look better. Remember to pick a SE facing spot if you want the bigger waves.

Here are the tides for the weekend.

Saturday
01:33AM 0.4' Low
07:48AM 4.8' High
01:47PM 1.4' Low
07:34PM 5.0' High

Sunday
02:00AM 0.5' Low
08:07AM 5.2' High
02:24PM 0.8' Low
08:16PM 5.0' High

Have a great one!

Friday's Surf - A little dolphin Love

Friday will be another surf day...it won't be as big at the S facing spots as it has been over the last couple of days but I think it will be a bit more playful.

We are going to see a mix of fading S-SE tropical swell, slowly dropping SW energy, and building local NW windswell.

The average spots with some exposure to the swell mix will have waist-chest high surf with some shoulder high sets on the morning tide push.

Standout S facing spots, and the good combo breaks, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets mixing in at times...I think the tide push will be particularly fun before too much water gets on top of things.

Winds will be very similar to the last couple of days with light/variable and clean conditions early. Afternoon winds build onshore around the 10-12+ knot range with some gusts around 15 knots at the more exposed breaks.

S-facing breaks will again be the best bet on Friday...but I think that thanks to the increasing windswell we are going to see a few more corners start to creep into the beach breaks...so while shape will still be best at the points/reefs, the beach breaks should improve and help to bleed off some of the crowd. I would plan on hitting it in the morning for the cleanest shape...but you may see better surfing around midmorning as the tide starts to shift around.

On another random session note...I seem to be having some issues with surfing this week. First off I get sick of going left all the freaking time during the summer...so I sit around doing voodoo dances trying to get some windswell to break it up, which so far has been failing miserably during this last set of swells. Second I try and roast myself by wearing a retarded amount of rubber into near 70 degree water. Now today to add insult to injury, during the lunch session, I basically get molested by a family of dolphins. I have to say that nothing makes you feel lamer than to get humped by dolphins. (really though I didn't actually get humped but I could totally tell that one wanted to...the freak.). I may just shoot photos tomorrow.

What part of "no" don't you understand Flipper! (I think this is the one that almost got me)

Tuesday's Surf - fading surf...but it won't stay down for long

Tuesday will be a surf day...and even though it will be a bit smaller than the last few days there may be a little bit better shape as some of the more walled beach breaks start to open up a bit.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of dropping S swell, some background tropical energy both from the S and SE, and a bit of local windswell. Most breaks with some exposure to the S swells will be in the waist-shoulder high range. Standout S facing surf spots, particularly in Orange County and North San Diego, will have some head high+ sets mixing in on the tide push.

Winds will be sort of similar to the last couple of days...light and variable early, with a few spots of light texture, and then onshore out of the W around 10-15 knots by the afternoon. If you live close to the beach it might even be worth keeping an eye on it late in the evening as well...winds have been backing off a bit before sunset. It doesn't get super clean...but better than the midday chop.

S facing spots, particularly ones that do well on the Southern Hemi swells, will be the call on Tuesday. I think that the points and reefs will continue to have the best shape...but the beach breaks may be a bit more workable with a few extra corners. Still expect a bit of current at the more open spots, but even that should back off a touch. I still think this swell is worth driving for...especially now that people are back at work for the week.

Here is the CDIP model for the afternoon...I like seeing a real swell visualized on these models...it gives you a real clean picture of where the swell is working its way into.




Oh and a couple of random notes...the US Open is starting to move into full crazy mode. So if you were planning on surfing the HB pier this week you might want to just slam your head in a car door...you will get the same effect and save a little gas. Also I saw "The Dark Knight" over the weekend...two words...freaking awesome.

Tropical Storm Fausto - Waves on the way

Fausto had a pretty good run over the weekend...and in fact he was just downgraded to a tropical storm this afternoon, so he had some legs.

We actually have 2 tropical systems cruising in the EPAC right...check out the latest NHC update...



TS Genevieve is still a ways to the SE and out of our swell window but Fausto has spent the last 24-30 hours cruising right on the edge of the SoCal SE window.

The most interesting thing is that Fausto made a more NW'erly jog on Sunday and strengthen up to Cat 2 while he was doing it. Both of these things are pretty good swell generators...here check out the University of Hawaii's Tropical Page...(the solid lines are actual storm track while the dotted lines are forecasted track and strength.)



With the NW'erly track, the increase in wind speeds, and the storms close proximity, I am looking for another decent shot of tropical S-SE swell (160-170) to arrive later this week. At this point I think that we will see a slight increase in tropical swell on Tuesday but the bulk of the swell energy won't arrive until Wednesday-Wednesday afternoon. About the only think limiting the swell will be how close the system was to the edge of our swell window, which basically translates to how much of the storm (and its swell producing winds) were being shadowed by the Baja Spur.

Sizewise I think that we are going to see another shoulder-high+ SE swell from Fausto, probably bigger (closer to overhead) in North OC, and it will peak Wednesday afternoon. At the same time we will have a new SW swell filling in from the SPAC so even the spots that aren't so exposed to the SE angle should have some waves coming through as well.

Surf for the weekend – Tropical swell, S swell, and windswell…yea for waves!

The tropical SE swell from Elida finally started to fill in a bit more on Friday…I actually caught a few waves in Newport throughout the day…surfed about 10:30 and there were some shoulder high sets…by 2:30pm there were a few shoulder-head high sets through the river jetties…maybe a few bigger ones. Shape wasn’t that great, it was lined up and closing out on most of them, with crumbly texture as well. The water was nice and warm though so it was definitely better than sitting at a desk. Not sure if the swell made it into any other beaches at this point…so if you saw some waves in the other counties drop me an email or a comment. Here is a shot of the Dana Point Buoy…check out the 10-second energy.



Anyway on to the weekend.

We are going to have plenty of surf this weekend…both Saturday and Sunday will be surf days.

We are going to see a mix of building S swell (170-190), SE tropical swell from Elida (which may die out by Saturday evening), and the persistent background NW windswell.

Saturday will start slow overall except for areas that have some tropical swell showing already.

As the new S swell fills in through the day and into the afternoon most breaks without S exposure will be in the waist-high range. Spots with exposure to the S swell will be in the chest-shoulder high range. Good S facing beaches will be in the shoulder-head high+ range, while the standout breaks, mostly in Orange County and parts of Northern San Diego, see head-high to overhead+ surf with sets going a could of feet overhead at times as the swell starts to peak later Saturday evening and into Sunday. (I would expect a lot of this swell to hold into Monday as well).

Winds are forecast to be light through the mornings and only moderate for the afternoons. If it follows a similar pattern to the last couple of days we have even seen some clean-up in shape late in the day as we head toward dusk.

This swell will be worth driving around for…and you may have to hunt around to find some decent shape. Right now it looks like we are going to see a lot of walled up beach breaks in the top areas as well as a lot of S-to-N current to fight with. I think the best shape will be at the points and reefs that pick up the S swell…it will hold the waves better and will be less of a constant paddle. If you have to surf the beach break look for jetty, pier, rock, or really big-ass sandbar to help break it up.

Have fun this weekend...I will probably be posting some sort of update so check back if you get some computer time.

Friday's Surf - Rideable but still waiting for the bigger S swell.

Friday will be surfable, definitely not great, but semi-rideable at most spots, and probably fun small surf at the top breaks.

Swellwise it looks like swell from Elida is sort of a bust...it is out there but it is lacking size and punch...it is a lot like a S windswell in shape and power. Friday we may have a touch more size, and a bit more of S angle (compared to SE) out of the tropical swell but I am not holding my breath that it will be all that good. We will also have a mix of S-SW energy coming in from the SPAC and some increasing local NW windswell.

Most spots will continue to run in the knee-waist high range. Standout spots, good S-SE facing beaches and excellent combo breaks, will see waist-chest high surf through the morning...and maybe a few bigger sets as we head towards the afternoon.

Winds will be similar to Thursday...mostly light and variable in the morning and then light-moderate onshore out of the W around 10-12 knots through the afternoon.

I would bring your small wave gear to the beach tomorrow...a fish might be fun but I think the longboard might be better for the swell mix. The S facing spots in North OC and parts of San Diego will be the biggest but not worth driving for at this point.

Here is the CDIP model from this afternoon…(a piddliy 1.1’ at 175-degrees)



A little further out: The new S swell (170-190) will begin to show on the buoys later in the afternoon...I am looking for some 20+ second energy to start to climb as we head into sundown. This will continue to build overnight and throughout the day on Saturday, eventually peaking Saturday evening into Sunday and holding through Monday. You can check out the other posts I had for this swell for more details...but the good S facing spots will be overhead+ on sets as the swell peaks...so it should be pretty fun over the weekend and into early next week. More details tomorrow!

Thursday's Surf - New Tropical S-SE swell

Wednesday's surf was pretty small throughout most of SoCal...the little SW swell and the windswell mix didn't really produce all that well...a lot of spots were in that ankle-knee high range. A few of the better-exposed breaks in South OC and North SD had some chest high sets but they were few and far between.

Fortunately it does look like we will have a few more waves moving in on Thursday...unfortunately this new swell is coming in from a pretty steep SE'erly swell angle, which really cuts down on the exposed breaks. I drew an ugly little map that sort of gives you a visual of what I am talking about...



The red line is the SE edge of the SoCal swell window...it is drawn down from the OC area (which has one of the most open SE swell angles) down to the Baja "Spur"...which eliminates most of San Diego and even parts of South Orange County.

I also drew (that being a relative term for my crappy mapwork...man my old college advisors would be shaking their heads at how low this map takes my cartography skills) the shadowing that the rest of SoCal gets from the nearshore islands (Catalina, San Clemente, and the Channel Islands). You can see a couple of gaps hitting North LA and Southern Ventura County but even those areas will see the swell get knocked down a bunch comparatively to the more exposed breaks.

Now that you have a little back-story...I do think Thursday will be a surf day but only in select areas with exposure to the SE swell, namely North and Central Orange County.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of tropical SE swell (that will gradually turn into more of a S swell, which is a reflection of Hurricane Elida's movement through our swell windown)...along with some leftover SW energy, and local windswell. Most spots will continue to see the ankle-knee-waist high surf that we saw on Wednesday. Spots with some SE exposure will be in the waist-chest high range. Standout SE facing spots in North OC will see chest-shoulder high sets.

Winds look nice and light again in the morning...so look for clean conditions early. W winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

I don't think it will be worth driving very far for this swell...worth checking on the cameras? Sure, but not hopping into the car without a little visual confirmation. The swell will strengthen and turn more southerly as we move into the afternoon (and more into Friday)...so it is worth keeping an eye on it throughout the day as well. If you are close to North OC I would give the good SE facing spots a check if you see something you like on the cameras.

Random Note: I was just kidding about pulling the plug on the blog and going to Mexico...I actually just meant that I would go surfing in Mexico on this next S swell and then return to my incredible long-rambling blog posts rather than update over the weekend...sorry for the confusion.