Monday, July 21, 2008

Tropical Storm Fausto - Waves on the way

Fausto had a pretty good run over the weekend...and in fact he was just downgraded to a tropical storm this afternoon, so he had some legs.

We actually have 2 tropical systems cruising in the EPAC right...check out the latest NHC update...

TS Genevieve is still a ways to the SE and out of our swell window but Fausto has spent the last 24-30 hours cruising right on the edge of the SoCal SE window.

The most interesting thing is that Fausto made a more NW'erly jog on Sunday and strengthen up to Cat 2 while he was doing it. Both of these things are pretty good swell check out the University of Hawaii's Tropical Page...(the solid lines are actual storm track while the dotted lines are forecasted track and strength.)

With the NW'erly track, the increase in wind speeds, and the storms close proximity, I am looking for another decent shot of tropical S-SE swell (160-170) to arrive later this week. At this point I think that we will see a slight increase in tropical swell on Tuesday but the bulk of the swell energy won't arrive until Wednesday-Wednesday afternoon. About the only think limiting the swell will be how close the system was to the edge of our swell window, which basically translates to how much of the storm (and its swell producing winds) were being shadowed by the Baja Spur.

Sizewise I think that we are going to see another shoulder-high+ SE swell from Fausto, probably bigger (closer to overhead) in North OC, and it will peak Wednesday afternoon. At the same time we will have a new SW swell filling in from the SPAC so even the spots that aren't so exposed to the SE angle should have some waves coming through as well.

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