Waves for the weekend – Playful and a touch cleaner

Hey gang....I am going to be away from the computer for a few days (non surf related) so this forecast is going out a bit early. The forecast will be back to its regularly scheduled randomness on Monday. Here are the nuts and bolts for the next few days.

Saturday

Saturday is looking like a surf day...nothing stellar...but cleaner than what we had at the end of the week.

We are going to see a mix of holding SW swell (200-220), steady WNW windswell, and peaking SE swell (160-175+180) from Tropical Storm Dolores.

Average spots will be waist-chest high with some plus sets at the better combo spots and SE facing breaks. Top spots, particularly the good combo breaks, and the best SE facing spots, will be around chest-shoulder high...maybe even a couple of bigger waves on the lower tides. Looks like the biggest surf will be in the summer San Diego areas, Orange County summer standouts, and the better spots in North LA. (sort of what you should expect from SE-SW swells).



Winds will be cleaner in the morning...more light and variable conditions early but with a few pockets of bump here and there at the more exposed beaches. WNW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Saturday Tides
01:33AM LDT -0.2 L
08:08AM LDT 3.2 H
12:02PM LDT 2.5 L
06:32PM LDT 6.1 H

Sunday and Monday

The mix of SW and WNW swell backs down slowly while the tropical SE swell drops out pretty fast.

Wave heights will continue in the waist-chest high range for many of the average spots...less consistent than Saturday. Top spots still see some chest-shoulder high sets but again the bigger sets will be less consistent. Expect smaller and less consistent surf on Monday.



Winds look clean in the morning on both days...light and variable with a hint of onshore flow through the early morning. WNW winds build in through midday and peak around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Here are the tides for Sunday/Monday

Sunday Tides
02:19AM LDT -0.8 L
08:50AM LDT 3.5 H
01:08PM LDT 2.3 L
07:26PM LDT 6.5 H

Monday Tides
03:03AM LDT -1.2 L
09:28AM LDT 3.7 H
02:05PM LDT 2.1 L
08:16PM LDT 6.9 H

Have a great weekend everyone!

Surf for Friday – building but with more wind

Friday with have waves but conditions will keep it from being much of a surf day.

Wave heights continue to build on Friday but increasing onshore winds will hamper shape from early-midmorning on.

Swellwise we are going to see a small, peaking SW swell (200-220), building WNW windswell, and building SE swell from Tropical Storm Dolores.


Wave heights are going to be in the waist-chest high range at most exposed spots on Friday. The combo beaches are going to see the most consistency early in the day but the S-SE facing spots will see consistency build through the afternoon as the tropical swell fills in.

The standout S, SW, and top combo spots will be around chest high on the average sets...but will have some shoulder high+ waves coming through by the end of the day (though it will be hard to find a spot clean enough to really surf by then as well).





Winds are going to be problematic again...this variable onshore flow that we have seen the last couple of days will actually strengthen more on Friday. I still expect some semi-clean conditions around sun-up, with building onshore flow by midmorning and continuing through the afternoon. Look for variable-W winds around 4-5 knots through the morning. WNW winds 10-15 knots will push through by the afternoon.

It will be Friday, it will be sunny/warm weatherwise, and there is a little building swell in the water...even though shape won’t be that great it will at least be worth giving it a look if you live close by. I wouldn’t drive very far for the surf... unless you are planning on just hanging out near the beach all day anyways. This onshore bump is getting sort of ridiculous...I am getting ready to sell my kidney for some slightly offshore winds for 18 hours.

Here are the tides...

12:40AM LDT 0.6 L
07:08AM LDT 2.8 H
10:44AM LDT 2.4 L
05:36PM LDT 5.7 H

Tropical Update: TS Dolores

We have another new tropical storm...TD 5E formed up late last night, and by midmorning here on Wednesday it had become Tropical Storm Dolores.



Currently TS Dolores is holding approximately 1200 miles SE of Southern California and about 700 miles SSW of the tip of Baja. She is moving WNW (310) around 10-11 knots and is expected to intensify into a strong Tropical Storm over the next 24 hours. Long-range forecasts are showing TS Dolores hitting colder water (and some wind shear) after that 24 hours...but conditions are shifting that may allow her to stay more intense for a longer-period, which would be much better for us wavewise.



At this point TS Dolores is already in SoCal’s SE swell window...and is doing a few “good-things” that help swell production.

1. She is intensifying...(you always want the storm to get stronger or at minimum, hold strength)

2. She is a decent sized storm with almost 200 miles of 34+ knot winds in the NE and SE side of the system (the side that produces swell for us.)

3. She is moving roughly NW-WNW at a moderate pace. (The closer she can get to moving directly at us the more energy she will send out.)

4. Finally she isn’t too far...1200 miles is a reasonable distance...not great...but not as bad as it could be.



I do wish the storm was a bit stronger...and moving a bit more to the NW...but as it is I am still expecting some swell from Dolores.

Baja Sur will get waves from this Tropical Storm...I expect some S-SSW swell (180-190) to start showing at the exposed Pacific Side spots around the 16-17th with wave heights in the chest-shoulder high range for many spots and some bigger sets at the standouts.

SoCal will see this swell start to show through the day on the 17th strengthening towards the evening. Based on today’s forecasts the peak of the swell will be through the 18-19th. The swell will be more SE-S (165-180) for our region...so expect some shadowing at the start. Wave heights are going to be in the waist-chest high range at the average spots. Standout SE-S facing areas will be more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets.

Naturally we could see some bigger waves for all areas if TS Dolores intensifies past the current forecasts.