Thursday, November 12, 2009

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/12/2009

Forecast Overview

We will have a mix of junky WNW-NW windswell, funky winds, and weak background SW swell on tap for the next couple of days. Conditions clean up and the windswell drops off by Sunday as chilly offshore winds develop for many areas. Look for minor NW and more background SW swell to hold through the first part of next week…with the possibility of bigger WNW swell for next Thurs/Friday.

Short Range (next 4 days)

We will see an increase in local WNW-NW windswell as a new cold front pushes through the region potentially bringing junky winds along with it. Small SW swell (200-220) begins to push in through the background. Look for average spots to see surf in the knee-waist high range. Top NW windswell breaks, and the NW windswell/SW swell combo spots, will be in the knee-chest high range with some bigger sets, around shoulder high+ showing in the San Diego area. Shape doesn’t look great thanks to the cold front…but there may be a small surf window in the morning before the winds get going. Winds/Weather: Look for variable onshore flow for the morning…mostly around 5-8 knots but with stronger NW flow showing around Santa Barbara and Ventura. NW winds 10-15+ knots with gusts to 20-25 knots are expected by the afternoon/evening.

The mix of WNW-NW windswell and small SW swell (200-220) will hold into Saturday. Look for the average spots to continue to see knee-waist high waves with some chest high sets at the better exposed windswell breaks. Top NW facing spots, mostly through San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets at the best spots. Shape still looks pretty messy thanks to the steady onshore flow…but again there may be a small window of cleaner conditions sneaking through in the early morning. Winds/Weather: Santa Barbara through LA will have NW winds 10-12 knots for the morning while OC/SD sees more of a variable onshore flow around 5-knots. NW winds hit 15-20 knots by the afternoon with stronger gusts at times.

If we are going to have a surf day this weekend Sunday looks like it will be it…the last of the cold front will have moved through the region and high-pressure will be rebuilding as it departs. Looks like winds should go a chilly/gusty offshore for many areas for the morning…unfortunately those winds will start to knock down the windswell almost the second they switch direction so we can expect a mix of fading NW windswell and weak background SW swell that will also be on the way down. Look for the average WNW-NW facing breaks to be in the knee-waist high range while the standout NW spots see some chest high+ waves through the morning and then progressively smaller surf by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Cool morning temps and gusty offshore winds out of the N-ENE in the 10-20 knot range for the morning, strongest near passes and canyons. Afternoon winds will be lighter but look for building onshore flow to start up again late in the day.

Small NW windswell leftovers and very weak background SW swell hold on Monday. Most spots will drop into the knee high range with rare bigger sets. Standout NW facing breaks will be in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. Winds/Weather: Light and variable morning winds. NW winds 10-12 knots build through in the afternoon.


North Pacific
I am starting to see a bit more activity in the North Pacific on the long-range charts…nothing that looks all that great…but it definitely feels like the storm track is going to gain some traction over the next few days.

For this weekend we can just expect minor NW leftovers and building local WNW-NW windswell from winds moving in along with a cold front…basically it will be sloppy, choppy, and chilly through Saturday and then clean up and fade out on Sunday. Good times.

Further out the new activity that I am starting to see will brew up later this weekend and through the early part of next week…so we would see a little increase in NW swell (290-300) on Monday/Tuesday…and then possibly a bigger WNW swell (285-300) for around Thursday/Friday, Nov 19-20. The weather doesn’t look all that good for the end of next week, but we are a waaaays out weatherwise and things may change before the swell actually gets here. Here are a couple of charts showing the long-range activity for next week.

South Pacific
The SPAC is still in its snoozefest mode…high pressure between Tahiti and Chile continues to dominate the swell track shutting down a lot of the storm track. It isn’t completely quiet down there…a steady, but weak, area of fetch has continued to spin up around the waters SE of New Zealand that has pushed out a few SW swells our direction. Unfortunately these look pretty weak…just sort of background energy that probably wouldn’t be worth mentioning if we had anything else going on. Look for these small pulses to push in over the upcoming weekend and through the middle/end of next week…nothing more than waist high+ at the top spots…hopefully it can combo up with the windswell to make things a little more fun.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
No storms are expected to develop for the next couple of days. We are getting pretty close to the end of the season.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, November 16th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster


Louis said...

wow, thats a long forecast. thanks for the effort and congrats, i see you scored some ads from kellogs. i like that more than some hurley ad. does mr kellog get a drawing of a killer whale?

Anonymous said...