Thursday, November 26, 2009

Surf for Friday – New WNW swell starts to peak

Friday will be a surf day…lots of waves to help snap us out of the post-turkey coma.

The new swell is right on time…already hitting the outer buoys and starting to filter through the nearshore islands. Check out the “Nowcast” from the CDIP…this is the one that is built off of actual data…not just the forecast model…you can really see the new energy piling up in the outer waters. It is also a great example to see how a steeper more Northerly swell angle gets heavily shadowed by Point Conception and all of those pesky islands.



This is the energy showing on the Harvest Buoy…lots of long-period energy…and a slightly better WNW angle (280-300 rather than 290-300 that we had hit on Tues/Wed). It is showing nearly 11-feet of energy at the 16-18 second period range!



And here is the forecast for Friday morning…as you can see a lot more energy making it into our spots.



So for Friday…we will have a new WNW swell (280-300) peaking throughout the day (eventually holding into Saturday). This one will have some decent size and consistency at the exposed spots and even the average WNW facing breaks will get plenty of waves.

Wave heights at the average WNW-NW facing breaks in Santa Barbara, North LA, and most of Orange County, will be in the chest-head high range on Friday. These areas are a little shadowed from the main swell energy so won’t as bit…or as consistent…but the “winter spots” in those regions will definitely have some waves. The S facing breaks naturally will be much smaller.

The better exposed spots in the more consistent winter regions, like Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will be in the shoulder-overhead range with some sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. Again these would be the “average to better than average” type of spots in these region.

The top NW facing breaks, again in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead…with some sets coming in several feet overhead…maybe even bigger as you head down to Southern SD.

Winds look ok for Friday…mostly light and variable to light offshore through the morning...but what looks like some early onshore flow starting to push through Santa Barbara and Ventura through mid-morning. A cold front is expected to arrive through the afternoon/evening…so look for increasing cloud cover and some building onshore winds through the second part of the day.



For tomorrow…like I said lots of waves…even a few good-sized/big waves at the top NW facing breaks. Shapewise the NW exposed points/reefs are going to be the best...most beach breaks are going to get pretty wally and see a lot of current moving around. This swell looks like it would be worth driving for if you are looking to hit something in a different area…the only thing to keep in mind is that nearly EVERYONE has the day off…so you will probably just be driving into a freaking massive crowd anyways.

Here are the tides…stay safe, and I hope you guys get some! Make sure to send me some surf reports (AND PICTURES!)

11/27/2009 Fri
05:14AM LST 4.9 H
12:13PM LST 1.2 L
05:53PM LST 3.5 H
11:17PM LST 1.6 L

7 comments:

RB said...

Hello Adam, when I visit CDIP I dont get the exact graphs that you get.
How about a link to that exact Nowcast and 12 hour forecast graphs from the source?
Thanks.

-JY- said...

am i the only getting all warm and fuzzy? =)

Adam Wright said...

just in my pants JY, just in my pants

RB - here is the link to the model

http://cdip.ucsd.edu/themes/cdip?d2=p54:r:Southern_California_Swell_Forecast:p:Hs:c:forecast&tz=PST

Just toggle the Nowcast/Forecast tabs at the top of the map and you can see both versions.

Adam

Anonymous said...

1-3 ft in all of north orange county this morning, also howling south winds, really disappointing

RB said...

Thanks Adam, I needed that.

Adam Wright said...

"Anonymous said...
1-3 ft in all of north orange county this morning, also howling south winds, really disappointing"

I was up taking those photos this morning. It was offshore, shoulder-overhead on the sets. Smaller as you moved down towards newport but still bigger than waist high. Not sure where you were looking but the swell was definitely out there.

Anonymous said...

srfed blacks and it was a relative weak sauce . . . can't wait to get some real juice