Swell Alert – Solid SSW swell for the end of the week

We have a solid SSW swell (180-200) heading to Socal later this week. Look for lots of long-period forerunners to start filling in through the day on Thursday and the peak of the swell arriving Friday and Saturday (July 24th and 25th).

There has been a lot of activity down in the Southern Hemisphere over the last couple of weeks. In general it was your standard SPAC winter storm activity...mostly zonal (west to east) flow with a few bursts of stronger action that would cough out some playful S-SW swell in our direction.



Late last week things started to get a little more interesting...we had a large intense area of low-pressure develop along the higher latitudes just as a very warm, very humid, low-pressure dive-bombed from the tropics/sub-tropics over by New Zealand. These two systems mixed over the weekend and we had legit storm, with consistent 40-50 knot winds, develop right in a key area of our swell window. The result is a nice SSW swell (180-200) heading our way for later this week.



Swell Timing and Sizes

Like I said above...the swell will start to arrive on Thursday July 23rd with some very long swell-periods. Current wave models are showing the swell hitting with some decent energy at 20+ seconds. I don’t expect a ton of new surf showing early on Thursday but it will definitely be increasing in both size and consistency throughout the day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see head high+ sets at the standout S facing breaks (particularly the ones that like long-period energy) by sundown.

By Friday, July 24th, the swell will start to peak (with 18- to 19-second swell-periods), and mix with some weak WNW windswell (not really enough to break it up). Average S facing spots can expect consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with bigger sets mixing in. Top S facing spots, in Orange County, North LA, and North San Diego, will be head high and overhead fairly consistently with sets going 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent bigger sets.

Saturday, July 25th, the SSW swell will continue to peak with sizes similar to Friday...so lots of shoulder-overhead surf at the better summer spots and some overhead+ sets at the standout S facing spots.

Eventually the swell winds down on Sunday but plan on it sending plenty of fun surf into early next week. (More swell from the Southern Hemi will overlap and keep us in waves through the end of the month).

A few notes on this swell

I am expecting the points and reefs to be the call on this swell, there isn’t a lot of windswell forecast to be in the water when this hits...so the beach breaks will likely be pretty walled up and see lots of the lovely South-North current (if I wanted a trendmill so badly I would go to the gym). If you can’t surf a point/reef you might be able to find some workable sections off structures (like piers/jetties)...but I wouldn’t head to those areas unless you are out of other options.

Baja

This swell will hit Baja as nicely as it is hitting SoCal...Northern Baja will have very similar sizes and timing to SoCal. Southern Baja will have a little more size, consistency, and will see the swell hit about a day earlier...so it will build in on Wednesday and peak Thursday/Friday/Saturday before backing down.


Ok that is all I have for now...check the daily forecast updates for more details as we get closer to the swell arriving.

Swell Alert – Healthy S swell on tap for next week

Good news...there is a healthy S swell (170-190) heading to SoCal that will peak early next week.

I have been watching a nice South Pacific storm spinning due south (almost SSE) of Southern California for the past several days. If you were looking at the forecast charts this system didn’t look like what you would “traditionally” expect to see in the South Pacific. Most times you have a low-pressure that develops down in the higher-latitudes, around the 50-60 degree latitude rage, over near New Zealand. The traditional system will move west-to-east through the storm track and, if it turns out to be a good swell-maker, it will make some sort of northward push while it is in our swell window.

This storm was actually what forecasters sometimes call a “cutoff-low”, which means that the trough of low-pressure is blocked off from the larger storm track by a ridge of high pressure. Generally the cut-off lows will develop in lower latitudes, which means it has a lot of access to all the warm-moist latent heat energy stored in the tropics. If the atmospheric conditions click in the right way a cut-off low can become quite intense as pulls up the tropical moisture...which is what happened in the case of this system.

Check out the sea-surface pressure chart of this system...I highlighted the good part of the fetch with the horrible red photoshop and bad penmanship.



And here is a shot from the QuikSCAT. You can see the 40-50 knot winds that developed as the storm started to fire off.





There were actually three really good things about this storm...first off was, that by being a cut-off low, it was quite a bit closer to us than it would normally be, which means that we will see a few thousand miles less of swell decay. Second the fetch in the storm made the good push northward which means that the wind had more time to produce the swell. Lastly the system hung together for a few days, which also gave the wind more time over the water, and added some duration to the swell.

Ok all this weather stuff is all well and good...but lets get on to the surf.

For Southern California, we will see this swell start to fill in quickly on Monday, (June 15th), and then peak on Tuesday-Wednesday before slowly fading through the rest of the week. We are also going to have some good-sized leftover SW swell (200-220) coming in from another storm that will peak over the upcoming weekend but will hold plenty of energy in early next week as the S swell hits. Sizewise I am expecting consistent shoulder-head high surf for the average spots and some overhead sizes as the top S-facing breaks.

The mix of these swells means that all of the summer spots will have some sort of surf early next week...so you are basically going to get to pick your poison when it comes to surf spots. Likely the points and reefs are going to be the best shape as this mix hits...but I am crossing my fingers that we see some windswell brew up over the weekend to help us break it up...and thin out the crowds in some spots.

This swell will actually hit Baja Sur (and Central/Northern Mainland Mexico) even harder than it hits SoCal. I expect the swell mix to move in fast in those areas on Sunday...peaking by the afternoon and holding through Monday before slowly dropping towards the end of the week. In Baja look for consistent head high surf at the S facing spots with sets going overhead+ (probably near 7’ faces on the big sets) as the swell peaks. Mainland Mexico will see similar sizes but may be a bit bigger as the SW swell hits the area harder.

Good times...check back for more updates as we get closer.