Friday, October 2, 2009

Waves for the Weekend – Sort of Ok Saturday…looking nasty Sunday

We will have some surf this weekend…but it looks like weather/winds are going to give it a good whacking with the ugly stick on Sunday.

Swellwise we will have a mix of building S-SSW swell (180-210) that starts to fill in on Saturday, peaking eventually Sunday and Monday. We will also have a large lump of WNW-NW windswell building in Saturday night and holding through Sunday before starting to drop off on Monday…of course this is being set up by the gusty winds forecast for Sunday…so it looks pretty sloppy.



On Saturday our surf will average around waist-chest high through the morning…mostly at the better S facing spots…but showing at the better combo spots as well. The new S-SSW swell will fill in more as we move through the day…and will be able to send some chest-shoulder high+ sets to the S-facing standouts by later in the afternoon…but conditions may not hold together long enough for us to pick many off.

Saturday’s conditions don’t start off bad…mostly overcast and maybe a bit foggy…but winds are expected to be mostly light and variable through the morning. There may be some light texture at the more exposed spots, but overall it should be manageable. The onshore flow definitely increases throughout the day with W-NW winds hitting 10-20 knots by sundown and possibly seeing some 30-knot gusts at times.

Saturday Morning Winds



Saturday Night Weather



Sunday the new swell mix, both S-SSW swell and the new WNW-NW windswell, will peak and push some decent sized, but very sloppy surf into the exposed spots. Average breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some head high sets hitting at times. Top spots, mostly the combo breaks and good S facing spots, will be more consistently in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets at times. San Diego looks like it may be even bigger, it sort of depends on how much traction the NW windswell gets, but if it lives up to forecasts we could see a stacked up, consistently overhead, jumbled up mess. Good times.

Forecasts are calling for rain and onshore wind throughout the day on Sunday. Looks like W winds on tap in the morning around 10-15+ knots and gusts going 15-25 knots in some areas. Conditions look similar through the afternoon.

Sunday Morning Winds



Sunday Morning Weather



So Saturday looks like the best call (duh Adam)…it won’t be great…but the conditions should hold up long enough to get out and ride a couple…particularly through the morning. S-facing spots will be the biggest, but look for rideable sizes at the combo spots as well. Sunday looks like a cold-ugly mess...W winds are sort of universally bad for Socal, and even spots that have some marginal protection are likely to get pretty trashed. I always recommend keeping a “weather eye” on conditions…just because when things get this unstable sometimes the storm slips through the region faster than the models think it will…so there is an outside chance that conditions might improve (“more like 1 in a million llyod”…so you are telling me there’s a chance!). Don’t waste any time driving to look at it…but you might want to check the various cams/buoys/wind stations if things feel like they are shifting around.

Here are the tides…have a good one!

Saturday
02:59AM LDT 0.8 L
09:01AM LDT 5.4 H
03:29PM LDT 0.5 L
09:25PM LDT 4.7 H

Sunday
03:22AM LDT 1.1 L
09:24AM LDT 5.7 H
04:04PM LDT 0.3 L
10:04PM LDT 4.5 H

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Looks like this is going to be an amazing weekend, yes no windy and hot and sunny with nice surf. Plus a tropical storm in the SSW mix as well on Sunday. Adam if the surf sucks and it is windy and rainy this weekend I think no one will ever trust your free surf forecast ever again. So if I were you I would make sure your 100% right about this weekend before you go off talking about it and showing all these weather charts. I am not being rude just want to make you understand that you cant always be right, and trust me you have been wrong many times!

Adam Wright said...

Maybe is it just me...but I am not all that sure where you are taking us with that post.

So am I wrong if the conditions are bad? Even though, in the forecast, I wrote that the conditions on sunday will be bad?
Or am I wrong many times if the conditions end up being good?

A little help? Anyone?

Anonymous said...

Yo Adam,
That guy is one of those typical cry-babies that didn't get enough attention when they were younger.

"You told me there would be waves and it didn't turn out exactly like you said so I'm gonna hold my breath until you make it right! Then I'm going to cry hysterically. Finally, I'm going to get on the blog and tell you how you're often wrong, WAAAAAAAAAH!"

This kind of stuff is always entertaining. The whinging feeble ones always are. You just gotta feel sorry for them. For a second. Then you laugh at them. But just not to their face because then they'll just start to whinge again.

Keep up the good work, Adam.

Anonymous said...

Adam, you do a damn good job at what you do. i'm very grateful for your forecasts. just ignore that guy or delete his stuff. it's pretty obvious it's the same guy who complains all the time. would suck to have that guy in a line-up. keep up the great work, brother.

Anonymous said...

Adam, you do an awesome job!! Thank you so much for your blog. When I have a little more income I'll hook you up in the tip jar.

I can't believe the kook calling you out. I agree with the other poster; little bitches like that pollute our lineups way more than any rain in the winter. Guy needs a warm glass of stfu!!!

namotuman said...

adam--any update on the status of the inside slider?

t. walt said...

Heck with the naysayers(correction naysayer). You do a damn fine job.

Your forecasts have been spot on nearly everytime I've gone out.

I dont even check wavewatch anymore. I go straight here.

deckmanx said...

Adam is my go-to man. Keep it up!

Adam Wright said...

You guys rock...

Namo - I am waiting for the 4pm wind/weather model to update...if I see any changes I will let you guys know...at of this morning it still looks pretty windy (out of the west) for most of tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

yeah whats up with that fag? i did have a blst today at 56th though.. and me and my buddues do have a nick name for you... ADAM WRONG... but you know you were born with that set up!!!! :) you know if you would have a more specific spot by spot forecast it would clear alot of confusion....

Anonymous said...

I agree that this is probably the guy who always brings negativity to the comments. So if I were you I would make sure you're 100% right about the fact no one likes you. What are you trying to compensate for that you have to bring others down?

Anonymous said...

"you know if you would have a more specific spot by spot forecast it would clear alot of confusion"

are u kiddn' me, wow. How 'bout he comes over and wipes yer arse as well.

yer gittn' free indepth info and analysis here. If u'd use ur dam head a bit, there's little or no confusion bout any spot.

everybody's gotta be spoon fed everything anymore.

Adam, please ignore the boneheads.

Ben said...

Did that guy even read the forecast? I'd just like to say thanks Adam for giving us the tools to make our own educated decisions. A spot by spot forecast isn't necessary if you know your breaks and actually pay attention to what Adam is saying.

Anonymous said...

what my arse what the fuck is a arse? you mean ass. for free!! ok so i guess you get what you pay for? whatever you fucking KOOK! look for me at 56th in the morning! and ask anyone in the water who jeff is and then well talk about ass wiping and a ASS WHIPPING!

Anonymous said...

Fucking BONE HEAD! WTFIT

Anonymous said...

WOW internet banging!
so just got back from a faily fun sesh... light winds.... i thought the winds were going to wreak havoc??? is the morning going to be light winds as well..

Anonymous said...

As long as we're talking semantics, I think you're looking for "ass whooping"...whipping does sound kind of kinky though..

Anonymous said...

i meant what i said..whipping! i'll whip that asshole, in the asshole!

Anonymous said...

wow.

That first guy is a huge cunt.


That guy is prob sad because he gets snaked in the lineup all the time cause he sucks at surfing.......and life.

Honestly if he had surfed for any amount of time or knew how to surf at all he would be able to read into Adams forecast and know what really going on.