Surf for Monday – The funk continues

Monday is not going to be a surf day.

Despite plenty of swell in the water it looks like Monday isn’t going to be much of a surf day as the craptacular conditions continue for most areas.

We are going to have a mix of loads of local WNW-NW windswell (that will be slowly fading but still healthy throughout the day), and a solid S-SSW swell (180-210). The S-SSW’er peaked mostly on Sunday but will continue to roll through Monday before starting to slowly back down through the week.



Wave heights will be in the chest-shoulder high range at the average spots, breaks with ok exposure to the Southerly swell or the local windswell. Better exposed areas will have more consistent chest-head high sets. Standout combo spots (Mostly through San Diego and Ventura) and the really well exposed S facing breaks (mostly through Orange County) will have some overhead sets, particularly through the morning.

Conditions will be pretty poop for most areas. The W-NW winds that blew all day Sunday are expected to continue overnight, slow down a touch for the morning, and then crank back up by Monday afternoon…so most of the wind prone areas aren’t going to get much of a break.

There is however one little ray of hope showing on this afternoon’s model that I think is worth keeping in mind…check out the wind forecast for tomorrow morning.



The model is suggesting that we might see some sort of eddyish circulation develop by early tomorrow morning, not a full-blown eddy, but enough of a low that it bends the morning winds around. If we took this chart at face value then Los Angeles, particularly through the South Bay, as well as North/Central Orange County, would see much lighter morning winds…not enough to clean up the lumpy swell mix, but enough that it might be semi-rideable at the really protected spots.

Overall I think most areas are going to be pretty bumpy…and continue to see building onshore winds through the day…so shape/conditions will be shot. I think that if you live close to the OC or South Bay areas that you might want to give it at least a cam check in the morning. It definitely won’t be worth driving any sort of real distance…but maybe we will be able to find something salvageable.

Here are the tides…

03:46AM LDT 1.3 L
09:49AM LDT 5.8 H
04:43PM LDT 0.1 L
10:46PM LDT 4.1 H

Waves for the Weekend – Sort of Ok Saturday…looking nasty Sunday

We will have some surf this weekend…but it looks like weather/winds are going to give it a good whacking with the ugly stick on Sunday.

Swellwise we will have a mix of building S-SSW swell (180-210) that starts to fill in on Saturday, peaking eventually Sunday and Monday. We will also have a large lump of WNW-NW windswell building in Saturday night and holding through Sunday before starting to drop off on Monday…of course this is being set up by the gusty winds forecast for Sunday…so it looks pretty sloppy.



On Saturday our surf will average around waist-chest high through the morning…mostly at the better S facing spots…but showing at the better combo spots as well. The new S-SSW swell will fill in more as we move through the day…and will be able to send some chest-shoulder high+ sets to the S-facing standouts by later in the afternoon…but conditions may not hold together long enough for us to pick many off.

Saturday’s conditions don’t start off bad…mostly overcast and maybe a bit foggy…but winds are expected to be mostly light and variable through the morning. There may be some light texture at the more exposed spots, but overall it should be manageable. The onshore flow definitely increases throughout the day with W-NW winds hitting 10-20 knots by sundown and possibly seeing some 30-knot gusts at times.

Saturday Morning Winds



Saturday Night Weather



Sunday the new swell mix, both S-SSW swell and the new WNW-NW windswell, will peak and push some decent sized, but very sloppy surf into the exposed spots. Average breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some head high sets hitting at times. Top spots, mostly the combo breaks and good S facing spots, will be more consistently in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets at times. San Diego looks like it may be even bigger, it sort of depends on how much traction the NW windswell gets, but if it lives up to forecasts we could see a stacked up, consistently overhead, jumbled up mess. Good times.

Forecasts are calling for rain and onshore wind throughout the day on Sunday. Looks like W winds on tap in the morning around 10-15+ knots and gusts going 15-25 knots in some areas. Conditions look similar through the afternoon.

Sunday Morning Winds



Sunday Morning Weather



So Saturday looks like the best call (duh Adam)…it won’t be great…but the conditions should hold up long enough to get out and ride a couple…particularly through the morning. S-facing spots will be the biggest, but look for rideable sizes at the combo spots as well. Sunday looks like a cold-ugly mess...W winds are sort of universally bad for Socal, and even spots that have some marginal protection are likely to get pretty trashed. I always recommend keeping a “weather eye” on conditions…just because when things get this unstable sometimes the storm slips through the region faster than the models think it will…so there is an outside chance that conditions might improve (“more like 1 in a million llyod”…so you are telling me there’s a chance!). Don’t waste any time driving to look at it…but you might want to check the various cams/buoys/wind stations if things feel like they are shifting around.

Here are the tides…have a good one!

Saturday
02:59AM LDT 0.8 L
09:01AM LDT 5.4 H
03:29PM LDT 0.5 L
09:25PM LDT 4.7 H

Sunday
03:22AM LDT 1.1 L
09:24AM LDT 5.7 H
04:04PM LDT 0.3 L
10:04PM LDT 4.5 H

Swell Alert – Another S-SSW swell

The South Pacific, especially the part that makes up our swell window, really likes springtime. We have already had two pretty decent S swells...and I don’t know about the rest of you but I have surfed more over the last few weeks than I did almost completely through Dec-Jan.

Anyway, like I mentioned in yesterday’s forecast we have another S-SSW swell (180-200) heading our way. This swell was kicked out by a pretty decent looking system that had been trolling around the South Pacific for the last 4-5 days.

Check out what the QuikSCAT passes picked up on this storm...



And here is some Altimetry data from the JASON-1 satellite. (As always a big thanks to Mark @ stormsurf for letting me use an image now and then...please check out his site www.stormsurf.com when you get a chance...the guy is an awesome forecaster and brilliant at putting the wave/wind/satellite data into useable formats).



Thanks to all of the pretty colors you can see that the storm had cranked up the core wind speeds into the 50-knot+ range at times as well as laid down a solid area of fetch. What was even better was that this storm had a lot of pre-existing sea-state to work with, which basically means that a previous storm came through moving roughly the same direction and tore up enough of the ocean surface that the winds in this new system didn’t have to work so hard...sort of like the “shampoo-effect” if you have ever had back to back days of drinking. All of this storm action has strung together a pretty solid pulse of SSW swell that will be hitting the usual regions starting around the middle of next week.

Here are the details...

Mainland Mexico and Central America
The really long-period energy (and I am talking 20+ seconds) of the SW’er (200-220) fills in slowly on the 21st...but the peak of the swell hits late on the 22nd and holds solid through the 23rd and 24th. Look for spots in this region to see consistent overhead+ surf at the better exposed spots. Standout breaks, particularly the good deepwater spots and outer reefs, will see sets going several feet overhead to nearly double-overhead at times. Even though the swell drops after the 24th expect several days of quality surf to continue to push into the region.

Baja Sur
The S-SSW swell (180-210) hits exposed areas on the 22nd and then peaks on the 23-24th. The swell is a little more southerly for this area compared to Mainland Mexico and Central America so it hits around the same time but with less size. As the swell peaks look for consistent head high sets at the average S facing spots while the standout breaks see overhead+ sets with some waves going a 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent sets. The majority of this energy will show at those really well-exposed spots...expect the more protected points/reefs to be smaller (but still fun).

Southern California
The S-SSW’er (180-210) fills in with the long-period forerunners on the 22nd, but with most of the energy arriving through the afternoon evening. The swell comes up fast through the 23rd and eventually peaks late that Thursday...holding through Friday and Saturday (the 24-25th) before dropping. In our region this swell looks good for shoulder-head high surf for the average S facing spots. The standout S-facing summer spots, mostly through Orange County (but in a few of the other regions too), will have more consistent head high and overhead surf with sets going 1-2’ overhead during the best conditions.

Hope you guys get a few good ones out of this swell.