Sunday, October 4, 2009

Surf for Monday – The funk continues

Monday is not going to be a surf day.

Despite plenty of swell in the water it looks like Monday isn’t going to be much of a surf day as the craptacular conditions continue for most areas.

We are going to have a mix of loads of local WNW-NW windswell (that will be slowly fading but still healthy throughout the day), and a solid S-SSW swell (180-210). The S-SSW’er peaked mostly on Sunday but will continue to roll through Monday before starting to slowly back down through the week.

Wave heights will be in the chest-shoulder high range at the average spots, breaks with ok exposure to the Southerly swell or the local windswell. Better exposed areas will have more consistent chest-head high sets. Standout combo spots (Mostly through San Diego and Ventura) and the really well exposed S facing breaks (mostly through Orange County) will have some overhead sets, particularly through the morning.

Conditions will be pretty poop for most areas. The W-NW winds that blew all day Sunday are expected to continue overnight, slow down a touch for the morning, and then crank back up by Monday afternoon…so most of the wind prone areas aren’t going to get much of a break.

There is however one little ray of hope showing on this afternoon’s model that I think is worth keeping in mind…check out the wind forecast for tomorrow morning.

The model is suggesting that we might see some sort of eddyish circulation develop by early tomorrow morning, not a full-blown eddy, but enough of a low that it bends the morning winds around. If we took this chart at face value then Los Angeles, particularly through the South Bay, as well as North/Central Orange County, would see much lighter morning winds…not enough to clean up the lumpy swell mix, but enough that it might be semi-rideable at the really protected spots.

Overall I think most areas are going to be pretty bumpy…and continue to see building onshore winds through the day…so shape/conditions will be shot. I think that if you live close to the OC or South Bay areas that you might want to give it at least a cam check in the morning. It definitely won’t be worth driving any sort of real distance…but maybe we will be able to find something salvageable.

Here are the tides…

03:46AM LDT 1.3 L
09:49AM LDT 5.8 H
04:43PM LDT 0.1 L
10:46PM LDT 4.1 H


namotuman said...

adam--you were right on for the dawn patrol in south county today. right after dawn the wind shot it to hell. good call, i wasted some diesel..bummer

Anonymous said...

offshore this morning with chunky, head high+ peaks. hardly epic but definitely surfable . . . computer models don't surf

Adam Wright said...

yeah we got lucky and dodged the wind bullet this morning.

Anonymous said...

It was sort of going off on some of the sets early this am. I was peacefully drinking my coffee thinking it wasn't going to be a surf day. Wrong.

Offshore, chunky wedging peaks. Sort of empty too, until the parking lot crew started seeing some sets role through. But by the time they paddled out, the s wind was on it. LOL

Anonymous said...

offshore in south san diego, too. did have an eddy, but got some sweet waves.