Monday, October 12, 2009

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 10/12/2009

Forecast Overview

We have a nice sized lump of WNW-NW swell moving in along with stormy conditions over the next several days. Looks like we might see a clean-up on Thursday as the storm moves out of the region. There will also be a decent sized S-SSW swell that hits during the second half of the week…if we get dealt the right cards we could be looking at a fun swell-combo (in poopy water) by Thursday/Friday.

Short Range (next 3 days)

We are going to see a slow increase in WNW energy, some building local S-SW windswell, and background S-SW swell (180-220) from the Southern Hemisphere. Conditions unfortunately don’t look that great as building S-SW winds and rain begin to move through the region. Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range at most of the “average” exposed spots. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo breaks, mostly in San Diego and Southern Ventura, will be in the waist-chest high range with a few near shoulder high sets. Look for the bigger sizes to become more consistent by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Looking a might stormy…building S-SW winds 10-15 knots for most of the exposed areas. Rain and heavy clouds likely throughout the day. Santa Barbara/Ventura can expect S-SE winds 15-20+ knots...and much more rain than the southerly regions.

Conditions continue to look pretty poo-tactuar…the storm will still be moving through the area and S-SW winds are the call for the day. New WNW storm swell (270-300 and a sort of short-medium period mess) builds in and will eventually peak by the afternoon. New S swell (180-200) also starts to fill in with long-period energy, but most of it will get lost in the noise of the local conditions. Look for the average spots to build into the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout spots see some head high and overhead sets from the sloppy WNW energy. Winds/Weather: S-SW winds 10-15 knots for most of the day…stronger gusts in the 15-20 knot range in the morning. Rain likely for most of the day as well.

Hmmm…this day looks like much more of a surf day (well if you don’t mind the Hepatitis Alphabet Soup in the water from the rain). Conditions make a drastic change as the front clears the area and winds switch around a bit. Look for a peaking mix of W-WNW storm swell (270-300) and a newly peaking S-SSW swell (180-200). Most of the average breaks will be running in the waist-shoulder high range. Standout WNW-NW facing spots, and the best combo areas, will be consistently shoulder-head high with some sets going overhead at times. Biggest surf will be in the San Diego area with the larger portion of the WNW-NW swell showing down there…but expect fun, if less consistent, surf at spots that can pull in the combo of southern hemi and westerly storm swell. Winds/Weather: Light and variable for most areas in the morning with some 5-10 knot N winds in the Orange County and San Diego regions. Look for WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.


North Pacific
Well the forecast from last week looks like it is going to hold up with lots of storm action plowing through the Gulf of Alaska (and through a lot of the West Coast. We can expect the new lump of storm swell and stormy conditions to hit mid-week and then trail off slightly towards the end of the week.

It won’t stay down for long through…more storm activity is forecast to push through the mid-upper latitudes of the North Pacific over the next several days that will line up even more WNW-NW swell for Saturday-Sunday…and even more forming out the back that can set up for next week.

At this point I am expecting another medium-short period WNW swell (280-300) hitting late on the 17th but peaking on the 18-19th with some shoulder-head high sizes at the winter spots. Another similar looking, but possibly bigger, WNW-NW swell (285-300) is forecast to arrive around the 21-22nd. Looks like winter is coming in early this year…hopefully it can keep up the pace.

South Pacific
Not all of our swell will be form the North Pacific this week…we have new S-SSW swell (180-200) will being to show some very long-period energy, 20-second stuff, on the 14th…but will peak with chest-head high surf on the 15-16th…look for the biggest waves from this one showing in Orange County (and parts of Northern SD)…but it will be pushing in plenty of waves into the other regions as well.

There has also been some OK looking storm/fetch holding just southeast of New Zealand that set up some more SW swell (200-220) that will arrive around the 19th and peak the 20-21st with surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the top SW facing breaks. Further out the SPAC has quieted down a bit…nothing significant in the extreme long-range forecast at this point.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
TS Patricia has formed down in the EPAC tropics and is threatening to buzz the Tip of Baja/Cabo in the next couple of days…possibly moving into the SoCal swell window later in the week. Not sure it will be much of a wave maker but it will be worth keeping an eye on it as we head toward midweek.

Long-range models are showing more activity spinning up in the next 5-6 days down by Mainland Mexico…we may see another named tropical system forming by sometime next weekend.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

hells yeah! El fucking Nino!