Now all we need is the wind to calm the heck down.
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Showing posts with label building S-SSW swell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label building S-SSW swell. Show all posts
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Swell Update - That new S-SSW swell smell....
Lots of new energy hitting the buoys this afternoon...the S swell is even starting to overpower the NW windswell.
Now all we need is the wind to calm the heck down.
Now all we need is the wind to calm the heck down.
Friday, May 14, 2010
Waves for the Weekend – S swell peaks but we may have some more eddy
Both Saturday and Sunday will have plenty of southern hemi swell but local eddy winds may keep things from getting super clean. Expect surfable shape but with a touch of texture to bump to it at times.
The new S swell (180-200) that has been moving in here on Friday will continue to hold/peak overnight in Saturday.
Look for the average spots to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high+ sets showing at breaks with a little better exposure to the southerly swell. Top S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County, will have some shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. A few of the breaks that can focus the S swell will be bigger on the lower tides.
Winds look ok…sort of light/variable with some pockets of eddyish texture here and there for the morning. Expect WNW-W winds around 10-14 knots to build in through the afternoon.
Sunday the S swell (180-200) will start to back off while the local NW windswell pushes in a little more size.
Look for the average S facing spots to see surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range with a few head high+ sets still showing through the morning. The standout S spots will be in the shoulder-overhead range with a few bigger sets still going a couple of feet+ overhead at times.
Winds still sort of ok/marginal on Sunday…looks like mostly light winds in the morning but there will be a few areas that pull in variable onshore texture at times. Look for these winds to shift more firmly to the West building up to the 10-15knot range for the afternoon.
I think this weekend is going to be a little challenging in terms of finding “good” surf…there will be crowds, the winds won’t be all that cooperative, and the tide swings are pretty funky…all of which just shorten our surf window. However, I do think that if you pick the right spot and head down to the beach with your mental state/expectations in the right place you will be able to find plenty of waves and probably be even be able to dig some fun out of what we have going conditionswise. Points and reefs are going to probably be the best call…the S swell won’t have much to break it up, particularly on Saturday, so we are going to need some sort of reef/point to help shape the wave. If you are looking for smaller waves, stick to the NW facing breaks…they will be more in the weak playful size range.
Here are the tides…hope you get a few.
05/15/2010 Saturday
05:10AM LDT -1.0 L
11:37AM LDT 3.4 H
04:07PM LDT 2.1 L
10:19PM LDT 6.0 H
05/16/2010 Sunday
05:56AM LDT -1.0 L
12:31PM LDT 3.3 H
04:50PM LDT 2.2 L
11:03PM LDT 5.8 H
The new S swell (180-200) that has been moving in here on Friday will continue to hold/peak overnight in Saturday.
Look for the average spots to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high+ sets showing at breaks with a little better exposure to the southerly swell. Top S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County, will have some shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. A few of the breaks that can focus the S swell will be bigger on the lower tides.
Winds look ok…sort of light/variable with some pockets of eddyish texture here and there for the morning. Expect WNW-W winds around 10-14 knots to build in through the afternoon.
Sunday the S swell (180-200) will start to back off while the local NW windswell pushes in a little more size.
Look for the average S facing spots to see surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range with a few head high+ sets still showing through the morning. The standout S spots will be in the shoulder-overhead range with a few bigger sets still going a couple of feet+ overhead at times.
Winds still sort of ok/marginal on Sunday…looks like mostly light winds in the morning but there will be a few areas that pull in variable onshore texture at times. Look for these winds to shift more firmly to the West building up to the 10-15knot range for the afternoon.
I think this weekend is going to be a little challenging in terms of finding “good” surf…there will be crowds, the winds won’t be all that cooperative, and the tide swings are pretty funky…all of which just shorten our surf window. However, I do think that if you pick the right spot and head down to the beach with your mental state/expectations in the right place you will be able to find plenty of waves and probably be even be able to dig some fun out of what we have going conditionswise. Points and reefs are going to probably be the best call…the S swell won’t have much to break it up, particularly on Saturday, so we are going to need some sort of reef/point to help shape the wave. If you are looking for smaller waves, stick to the NW facing breaks…they will be more in the weak playful size range.
Here are the tides…hope you get a few.
05/15/2010 Saturday
05:10AM LDT -1.0 L
11:37AM LDT 3.4 H
04:07PM LDT 2.1 L
10:19PM LDT 6.0 H
05/16/2010 Sunday
05:56AM LDT -1.0 L
12:31PM LDT 3.3 H
04:50PM LDT 2.2 L
11:03PM LDT 5.8 H
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Friday’s Surf – New S swell grinds in
Friday is looking like a surf day…but if you are looking for bigger surf you will need to hit up a S-facing beach (with no islands in the way).
We will see our new S-SSW swell (180-200) filling in fast on Friday…with the peak of the swell starting to hit later in the afternoon and holding overnight into Saturday. Small NW windswell will run in the background but don’t expect it to amount to very much. Check out the swell and how it fills in throughout the day…
Friday Morning
Friday Midday
Friday Afternoon
Sizewise…for the morning I am looking for the average S facing spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets becoming more and more common as we get closer to lunchtime. The standout S facing spots will be in the shoulder-head high+ range pretty consistently through the morning and then will start going overhead to a few feet overhead by the end of the day. Again remember that spots that can focus this long-period energy will have a shot at getting some solid surf showing before sunset.
Winds look good on Friday…mostly light and variable through the morning with a few pockets of light offshore winds near passes and canyons and light onshore winds at a few of the most exposed breaks. Look for winds to shift more onshore around lunchtime…eventually reaching the 10-13 knot range at the more wind-prone spots.
Plenty of S swell showing on Friday, even if the swell isn’t peaking until later in the day…unfortunately for the beach breaks there isn’t much in the background that will be able to break up the Southern Hemi lines…so a lot of spots will get a bit walled as this swell starts to really fill in. Points and reefs will have the best shape, but you might be able to find a manageable shoulder off the various structures out there (piers/jetties/rocks)…if you don’t have a point/reef nearby I would check those sort of spots before hitting the wide open sandbars. Expect some decent current to work against, particularly as the tide fills in.
Here are the tides…hope you get a few.
05/14/2010 Friday
04:28AM LDT -0.9 L
10:48AM LDT 3.5 H
03:31PM LDT 1.9 L
09:40PM LDT 6.0 H
We will see our new S-SSW swell (180-200) filling in fast on Friday…with the peak of the swell starting to hit later in the afternoon and holding overnight into Saturday. Small NW windswell will run in the background but don’t expect it to amount to very much. Check out the swell and how it fills in throughout the day…
Friday Morning
Friday Midday
Friday Afternoon
Sizewise…for the morning I am looking for the average S facing spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets becoming more and more common as we get closer to lunchtime. The standout S facing spots will be in the shoulder-head high+ range pretty consistently through the morning and then will start going overhead to a few feet overhead by the end of the day. Again remember that spots that can focus this long-period energy will have a shot at getting some solid surf showing before sunset.
Winds look good on Friday…mostly light and variable through the morning with a few pockets of light offshore winds near passes and canyons and light onshore winds at a few of the most exposed breaks. Look for winds to shift more onshore around lunchtime…eventually reaching the 10-13 knot range at the more wind-prone spots.
Plenty of S swell showing on Friday, even if the swell isn’t peaking until later in the day…unfortunately for the beach breaks there isn’t much in the background that will be able to break up the Southern Hemi lines…so a lot of spots will get a bit walled as this swell starts to really fill in. Points and reefs will have the best shape, but you might be able to find a manageable shoulder off the various structures out there (piers/jetties/rocks)…if you don’t have a point/reef nearby I would check those sort of spots before hitting the wide open sandbars. Expect some decent current to work against, particularly as the tide fills in.
Here are the tides…hope you get a few.
05/14/2010 Friday
04:28AM LDT -0.9 L
10:48AM LDT 3.5 H
03:31PM LDT 1.9 L
09:40PM LDT 6.0 H
Monday, April 12, 2010
Tuesday’s Surf – Cleaning up with some new S-SSW swell creeping in
Tuesday is looking more and more like a surf day…if you don’t mind the questionable water quality. It won’t be a great surf day…but there will be enough swell in the water to have some fun if the winds stay off of it.
In the water we are going to have a mix of W-NW wind/stormswell from this passing front…this is the energy that was set up by the W-NW winds that follow the front…and while the spread on the swell direction is 275-300 the majority of the swell will be coming in 290+. We will also have the first long-period lines from a new S-SSW swell (180-200) that will be filling in throughout the day (eventually peaking on Wednesday).
Look for the average spots to have surf in the chest-shoulder high range on Tuesday. The standout NW facing spots will have some head high and overhead surf through the morning. The standout S-SW facing spots will be in the shoulder high+ range for the morning but on inconsistent sets…look for a few bigger waves showing later in the day as the new S swell fills in a touch more.
Winds may still be a bit tweaked on Tuesday…a lot depends on how fast the backside of this front moves through (it is going pretty fast right now which is good). Right now it looks like this thing will push on overnight and we will get the high-pressure to fill in behind it. Look for light/variable winds for Santa Barbara down through most of LA County. OC and SD may still have some variable onshore texture for the morning but winds are forecast to be below 5-8 knots. If it gets cold enough (thanks to the clearing cloud cover) tonight it might set up more of a land-breeze for the morning which would knock down that onshore flow…cross your fingers that it gets a little chilly tonight.
So like I said…surfable…even a surf day for a few areas…but still with a few problems. The tide is still a bit fat (4-foot high…not that bad) early in the morning which doesn’t help us out, but there is enough sand that has been pushed around out there to let some spots take on this smaller swampthing. I will be getting up and checking it in the morning…with the swell combo in the water it warrants at least a quick surfcam check.
Here are the tides…
04/13/2010 Tuesday
03:26AM LDT 0.1 L
09:24AM LDT 4.0 H
03:10PM LDT 0.9 L
09:11PM LDT 5.3 H
In the water we are going to have a mix of W-NW wind/stormswell from this passing front…this is the energy that was set up by the W-NW winds that follow the front…and while the spread on the swell direction is 275-300 the majority of the swell will be coming in 290+. We will also have the first long-period lines from a new S-SSW swell (180-200) that will be filling in throughout the day (eventually peaking on Wednesday).
Look for the average spots to have surf in the chest-shoulder high range on Tuesday. The standout NW facing spots will have some head high and overhead surf through the morning. The standout S-SW facing spots will be in the shoulder high+ range for the morning but on inconsistent sets…look for a few bigger waves showing later in the day as the new S swell fills in a touch more.
Winds may still be a bit tweaked on Tuesday…a lot depends on how fast the backside of this front moves through (it is going pretty fast right now which is good). Right now it looks like this thing will push on overnight and we will get the high-pressure to fill in behind it. Look for light/variable winds for Santa Barbara down through most of LA County. OC and SD may still have some variable onshore texture for the morning but winds are forecast to be below 5-8 knots. If it gets cold enough (thanks to the clearing cloud cover) tonight it might set up more of a land-breeze for the morning which would knock down that onshore flow…cross your fingers that it gets a little chilly tonight.
So like I said…surfable…even a surf day for a few areas…but still with a few problems. The tide is still a bit fat (4-foot high…not that bad) early in the morning which doesn’t help us out, but there is enough sand that has been pushed around out there to let some spots take on this smaller swampthing. I will be getting up and checking it in the morning…with the swell combo in the water it warrants at least a quick surfcam check.
Here are the tides…
04/13/2010 Tuesday
03:26AM LDT 0.1 L
09:24AM LDT 4.0 H
03:10PM LDT 0.9 L
09:11PM LDT 5.3 H
Monday, October 12, 2009
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 10/12/2009
Forecast Overview
We have a nice sized lump of WNW-NW swell moving in along with stormy conditions over the next several days. Looks like we might see a clean-up on Thursday as the storm moves out of the region. There will also be a decent sized S-SSW swell that hits during the second half of the week…if we get dealt the right cards we could be looking at a fun swell-combo (in poopy water) by Thursday/Friday.
Short Range (next 3 days)
Tuesday
We are going to see a slow increase in WNW energy, some building local S-SW windswell, and background S-SW swell (180-220) from the Southern Hemisphere. Conditions unfortunately don’t look that great as building S-SW winds and rain begin to move through the region. Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range at most of the “average” exposed spots. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo breaks, mostly in San Diego and Southern Ventura, will be in the waist-chest high range with a few near shoulder high sets. Look for the bigger sizes to become more consistent by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Looking a might stormy…building S-SW winds 10-15 knots for most of the exposed areas. Rain and heavy clouds likely throughout the day. Santa Barbara/Ventura can expect S-SE winds 15-20+ knots...and much more rain than the southerly regions.
Wednesday
Conditions continue to look pretty poo-tactuar…the storm will still be moving through the area and S-SW winds are the call for the day. New WNW storm swell (270-300 and a sort of short-medium period mess) builds in and will eventually peak by the afternoon. New S swell (180-200) also starts to fill in with long-period energy, but most of it will get lost in the noise of the local conditions. Look for the average spots to build into the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout spots see some head high and overhead sets from the sloppy WNW energy. Winds/Weather: S-SW winds 10-15 knots for most of the day…stronger gusts in the 15-20 knot range in the morning. Rain likely for most of the day as well.
Thursday
Hmmm…this day looks like much more of a surf day (well if you don’t mind the Hepatitis Alphabet Soup in the water from the rain). Conditions make a drastic change as the front clears the area and winds switch around a bit. Look for a peaking mix of W-WNW storm swell (270-300) and a newly peaking S-SSW swell (180-200). Most of the average breaks will be running in the waist-shoulder high range. Standout WNW-NW facing spots, and the best combo areas, will be consistently shoulder-head high with some sets going overhead at times. Biggest surf will be in the San Diego area with the larger portion of the WNW-NW swell showing down there…but expect fun, if less consistent, surf at spots that can pull in the combo of southern hemi and westerly storm swell. Winds/Weather: Light and variable for most areas in the morning with some 5-10 knot N winds in the Orange County and San Diego regions. Look for WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Well the forecast from last week looks like it is going to hold up with lots of storm action plowing through the Gulf of Alaska (and through a lot of the West Coast. We can expect the new lump of storm swell and stormy conditions to hit mid-week and then trail off slightly towards the end of the week.
It won’t stay down for long through…more storm activity is forecast to push through the mid-upper latitudes of the North Pacific over the next several days that will line up even more WNW-NW swell for Saturday-Sunday…and even more forming out the back that can set up for next week.
At this point I am expecting another medium-short period WNW swell (280-300) hitting late on the 17th but peaking on the 18-19th with some shoulder-head high sizes at the winter spots. Another similar looking, but possibly bigger, WNW-NW swell (285-300) is forecast to arrive around the 21-22nd. Looks like winter is coming in early this year…hopefully it can keep up the pace.
South Pacific
Not all of our swell will be form the North Pacific this week…we have new S-SSW swell (180-200) will being to show some very long-period energy, 20-second stuff, on the 14th…but will peak with chest-head high surf on the 15-16th…look for the biggest waves from this one showing in Orange County (and parts of Northern SD)…but it will be pushing in plenty of waves into the other regions as well.
There has also been some OK looking storm/fetch holding just southeast of New Zealand that set up some more SW swell (200-220) that will arrive around the 19th and peak the 20-21st with surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the top SW facing breaks. Further out the SPAC has quieted down a bit…nothing significant in the extreme long-range forecast at this point.
Northeast Pacific Tropics
TS Patricia has formed down in the EPAC tropics and is threatening to buzz the Tip of Baja/Cabo in the next couple of days…possibly moving into the SoCal swell window later in the week. Not sure it will be much of a wave maker but it will be worth keeping an eye on it as we head toward midweek.
Long-range models are showing more activity spinning up in the next 5-6 days down by Mainland Mexico…we may see another named tropical system forming by sometime next weekend.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 15th, 2009
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
We have a nice sized lump of WNW-NW swell moving in along with stormy conditions over the next several days. Looks like we might see a clean-up on Thursday as the storm moves out of the region. There will also be a decent sized S-SSW swell that hits during the second half of the week…if we get dealt the right cards we could be looking at a fun swell-combo (in poopy water) by Thursday/Friday.
Short Range (next 3 days)
Tuesday
We are going to see a slow increase in WNW energy, some building local S-SW windswell, and background S-SW swell (180-220) from the Southern Hemisphere. Conditions unfortunately don’t look that great as building S-SW winds and rain begin to move through the region. Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range at most of the “average” exposed spots. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo breaks, mostly in San Diego and Southern Ventura, will be in the waist-chest high range with a few near shoulder high sets. Look for the bigger sizes to become more consistent by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Looking a might stormy…building S-SW winds 10-15 knots for most of the exposed areas. Rain and heavy clouds likely throughout the day. Santa Barbara/Ventura can expect S-SE winds 15-20+ knots...and much more rain than the southerly regions.
Wednesday
Conditions continue to look pretty poo-tactuar…the storm will still be moving through the area and S-SW winds are the call for the day. New WNW storm swell (270-300 and a sort of short-medium period mess) builds in and will eventually peak by the afternoon. New S swell (180-200) also starts to fill in with long-period energy, but most of it will get lost in the noise of the local conditions. Look for the average spots to build into the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout spots see some head high and overhead sets from the sloppy WNW energy. Winds/Weather: S-SW winds 10-15 knots for most of the day…stronger gusts in the 15-20 knot range in the morning. Rain likely for most of the day as well.
Thursday
Hmmm…this day looks like much more of a surf day (well if you don’t mind the Hepatitis Alphabet Soup in the water from the rain). Conditions make a drastic change as the front clears the area and winds switch around a bit. Look for a peaking mix of W-WNW storm swell (270-300) and a newly peaking S-SSW swell (180-200). Most of the average breaks will be running in the waist-shoulder high range. Standout WNW-NW facing spots, and the best combo areas, will be consistently shoulder-head high with some sets going overhead at times. Biggest surf will be in the San Diego area with the larger portion of the WNW-NW swell showing down there…but expect fun, if less consistent, surf at spots that can pull in the combo of southern hemi and westerly storm swell. Winds/Weather: Light and variable for most areas in the morning with some 5-10 knot N winds in the Orange County and San Diego regions. Look for WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Well the forecast from last week looks like it is going to hold up with lots of storm action plowing through the Gulf of Alaska (and through a lot of the West Coast. We can expect the new lump of storm swell and stormy conditions to hit mid-week and then trail off slightly towards the end of the week.
It won’t stay down for long through…more storm activity is forecast to push through the mid-upper latitudes of the North Pacific over the next several days that will line up even more WNW-NW swell for Saturday-Sunday…and even more forming out the back that can set up for next week.
At this point I am expecting another medium-short period WNW swell (280-300) hitting late on the 17th but peaking on the 18-19th with some shoulder-head high sizes at the winter spots. Another similar looking, but possibly bigger, WNW-NW swell (285-300) is forecast to arrive around the 21-22nd. Looks like winter is coming in early this year…hopefully it can keep up the pace.
South Pacific
Not all of our swell will be form the North Pacific this week…we have new S-SSW swell (180-200) will being to show some very long-period energy, 20-second stuff, on the 14th…but will peak with chest-head high surf on the 15-16th…look for the biggest waves from this one showing in Orange County (and parts of Northern SD)…but it will be pushing in plenty of waves into the other regions as well.
There has also been some OK looking storm/fetch holding just southeast of New Zealand that set up some more SW swell (200-220) that will arrive around the 19th and peak the 20-21st with surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the top SW facing breaks. Further out the SPAC has quieted down a bit…nothing significant in the extreme long-range forecast at this point.
Northeast Pacific Tropics
TS Patricia has formed down in the EPAC tropics and is threatening to buzz the Tip of Baja/Cabo in the next couple of days…possibly moving into the SoCal swell window later in the week. Not sure it will be much of a wave maker but it will be worth keeping an eye on it as we head toward midweek.
Long-range models are showing more activity spinning up in the next 5-6 days down by Mainland Mexico…we may see another named tropical system forming by sometime next weekend.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 15th, 2009
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
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