Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 10/12/2009

Forecast Overview

We have a nice sized lump of WNW-NW swell moving in along with stormy conditions over the next several days. Looks like we might see a clean-up on Thursday as the storm moves out of the region. There will also be a decent sized S-SSW swell that hits during the second half of the week…if we get dealt the right cards we could be looking at a fun swell-combo (in poopy water) by Thursday/Friday.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
We are going to see a slow increase in WNW energy, some building local S-SW windswell, and background S-SW swell (180-220) from the Southern Hemisphere. Conditions unfortunately don’t look that great as building S-SW winds and rain begin to move through the region. Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range at most of the “average” exposed spots. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo breaks, mostly in San Diego and Southern Ventura, will be in the waist-chest high range with a few near shoulder high sets. Look for the bigger sizes to become more consistent by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Looking a might stormy…building S-SW winds 10-15 knots for most of the exposed areas. Rain and heavy clouds likely throughout the day. Santa Barbara/Ventura can expect S-SE winds 15-20+ knots...and much more rain than the southerly regions.

Wednesday
Conditions continue to look pretty poo-tactuar…the storm will still be moving through the area and S-SW winds are the call for the day. New WNW storm swell (270-300 and a sort of short-medium period mess) builds in and will eventually peak by the afternoon. New S swell (180-200) also starts to fill in with long-period energy, but most of it will get lost in the noise of the local conditions. Look for the average spots to build into the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout spots see some head high and overhead sets from the sloppy WNW energy. Winds/Weather: S-SW winds 10-15 knots for most of the day…stronger gusts in the 15-20 knot range in the morning. Rain likely for most of the day as well.

Thursday
Hmmm…this day looks like much more of a surf day (well if you don’t mind the Hepatitis Alphabet Soup in the water from the rain). Conditions make a drastic change as the front clears the area and winds switch around a bit. Look for a peaking mix of W-WNW storm swell (270-300) and a newly peaking S-SSW swell (180-200). Most of the average breaks will be running in the waist-shoulder high range. Standout WNW-NW facing spots, and the best combo areas, will be consistently shoulder-head high with some sets going overhead at times. Biggest surf will be in the San Diego area with the larger portion of the WNW-NW swell showing down there…but expect fun, if less consistent, surf at spots that can pull in the combo of southern hemi and westerly storm swell. Winds/Weather: Light and variable for most areas in the morning with some 5-10 knot N winds in the Orange County and San Diego regions. Look for WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Well the forecast from last week looks like it is going to hold up with lots of storm action plowing through the Gulf of Alaska (and through a lot of the West Coast. We can expect the new lump of storm swell and stormy conditions to hit mid-week and then trail off slightly towards the end of the week.





It won’t stay down for long through…more storm activity is forecast to push through the mid-upper latitudes of the North Pacific over the next several days that will line up even more WNW-NW swell for Saturday-Sunday…and even more forming out the back that can set up for next week.

At this point I am expecting another medium-short period WNW swell (280-300) hitting late on the 17th but peaking on the 18-19th with some shoulder-head high sizes at the winter spots. Another similar looking, but possibly bigger, WNW-NW swell (285-300) is forecast to arrive around the 21-22nd. Looks like winter is coming in early this year…hopefully it can keep up the pace.

South Pacific
Not all of our swell will be form the North Pacific this week…we have new S-SSW swell (180-200) will being to show some very long-period energy, 20-second stuff, on the 14th…but will peak with chest-head high surf on the 15-16th…look for the biggest waves from this one showing in Orange County (and parts of Northern SD)…but it will be pushing in plenty of waves into the other regions as well.



There has also been some OK looking storm/fetch holding just southeast of New Zealand that set up some more SW swell (200-220) that will arrive around the 19th and peak the 20-21st with surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the top SW facing breaks. Further out the SPAC has quieted down a bit…nothing significant in the extreme long-range forecast at this point.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
TS Patricia has formed down in the EPAC tropics and is threatening to buzz the Tip of Baja/Cabo in the next couple of days…possibly moving into the SoCal swell window later in the week. Not sure it will be much of a wave maker but it will be worth keeping an eye on it as we head toward midweek.



Long-range models are showing more activity spinning up in the next 5-6 days down by Mainland Mexico…we may see another named tropical system forming by sometime next weekend.


Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf on Friday – Looking messy with some possible pockets

So we have swell in the water...and the winds aren’t horrible everywhere right now (as I write this a whole lot of San Diego is surfable, the South Bay is clean, and whole areas protected from the S-SE winds in Ventura are mostly offshore)...it isn’t great surf but it is bigger than earlier this week, so we finally have something to ride.

That W-WNW swell will keep building tonight and peak sometime after midnight.

It looks good for easy chest-shoulder high surf at most W facing breaks. A few of the standout W-NW facing spots, the usual good winter breaks, will have some head high and overhead sets mixing it. I don’t think it is going to come in much bigger than that since the swell periods are already starting to shorten up to around 13-14 seconds. Check out the CDIPer to see how it is hitting this afternoon.



Winds and weather will be the issue again tomorrow. Forecasts are calling for consistent S-SW winds around 10-15 knots for most areas and stronger gusts through the morning. The winds aren’t that strong but they will have a lot of time on the water tonight so I am expecting some decent chop by tomorrow morning and holding through most of the day.

Now if you don’t mind the questionable water quality and you are relatively close to the beach I think you should probably plan on keeping a “weather eye” on conditions. With the storm moving directly over us there is going to be a fair amount of shifting around windwise at times...if things line up for local area, or you have some great protection from the S winds, I think there are going to be some surfable windows tomorrow. It won’t be great surf...but it will be fairly consistent, have some decent size, and be a lot better than the total flatness we just powered through. Personally I am going to keep my gear in the truck just in case things pull together around my neck of the woods.

Here are the tides...

05:52AM LST 6.0 H
01:29PM LST -1.2 L
07:56PM LST 3.6 H

Thursday’s Surf – A chance at some building W swell

Overall Thursday isn’t going to be a great surf day BUT there is a chance for us to pick off some of the building W swell in the morning before the wind and the weather get to it.

We are going to see a mix of building W-WNW energy (270-300) filling throughout the day…it is going to be a funky mix of longer-period energy from a storm that brushed the edge of the Gulf of Alaska, and some medium/short-period energy coming in from a storm just off the coast.

Check out the GOES Satellite photo of this storm…



You can see the little spinner just off the coast…(it is also the one that will be sending us the weather for the next several days). Storms like this are sort of a pain in the ass from a forecasting standpoint. They are a bit fluky…sometimes coming on strong and then sometimes only showing circulation in the upper levels without “wind on the water” that we need for swell. They also are low enough in latitude that swell they produce misses the outer buoys and comes directly into the coast…hitting everywhere about the same time…with little warning or readings before they arrive.

Anyway this one seems like it has pretty good circulation on the surface, and so I have a tendency to agree with the wave-model, and expect new W swell arriving tomorrow, peaking tomorrow night, and holding solid into Friday.

Check out the CDIP sideways forecast…lots of swell…(but a lot of the stuff showing Friday/Sat is going to be wind chop layering in on top of the actual swell).



Sizewise I am expecting most of the W facing beaches to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range through the morning. The top spots will have some bigger sets mixing in…probably close to head high through the morning. Eventually this swell will peak in the afternoon (into Friday) with surf running consistently in the chest-head high+ range for most W facing breaks. Top spots, mostly in San Diego, The South Bay, and Ventura, will have overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet overhead at times.

Weather is going to be the issue…the front from this system is coming in right after the swell starts to arrive. I am crossing my fingers that it will stall a little bit and give us a chance at getting some fun waves before it falls apart.

The COAMPS wind model is showing morning winds to be running ESE-SE through the morning around sunrise…but shifting straight to the S by midmorning. Forecasts are calling for scattered showers through the morning and more rain by the afternoon.

Check out the difference between 1200 zulu (4am)



and 1500 zulu (8am)



As for getting waves tomorrow…we are going to have swell…but we need to work around the wind. I think the best call is going to be W facing spots that are sheltered from the S winds. Yeah it won’t be really southy winds right at first…but I am thinking about longer sessions…if you pick a spot with some protection it will stay cleaner longer as the winds start to switch, giving you a better shot at bigger surf as the W-WNW swell fills in. (There are quite a few spots along the coast that have this sort of set up…take a closer look at the COAMPS and you should be able to find a few spots).

Anyway here are the tides…lets get some surf tomorrow.

04:51AM LST 5.6 H
12:45PM LST -0.9 L
07:24PM LST 3.3 H
11:40PM LST 2.2 L