Unfortunately Patricia is not in the Southern California swell window at this time…she is still a bit SSE of the tip of Baja and is expected to move northerly towards Cabo instead of the WNW we would need for her to reach the Socal window.
Current forecasts are calling her core winds around 35-40 knots but with some stronger gusts starting to develop. The NHC’s long-range models expect her to reach about the 50-60 knot range, which would put her at a “strong” tropical storm, right before she moves close to the tip of Baja. The National Hurricane Center has also tagged this lovely statement onto the tail end of there TS Patricia discussion…
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PATRICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
They haven’t quite issued a Tropical Storm Watch at this point but it sounds like it will be issued sometime today.
As you can see on the extended part of the forecast run…Patricia might actually push back to the west, which might allow her to reach our window around Thursday…though I am not holding out much hope for that at this time.
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