Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Thursday’s Surf – Still a bit windy…

Thursday is not looking very surfable...there may be a couple of sheltered little pockets here and there…but for the most part expect onshore winds (and onshore chop) for the morning and then stronger onshore flow for the afternoon/evening. Stupid wind.

Our swell is going to be a mix of steeply angled NW windswell (290+) that will peak through the morning, and a healthy SSW-SW swell (190-220) that is basically going to get steamrolled by the local wind energy. Check it out…you can see the new SSW-SW swell showing on the Oceanside Buoy already.

And this is how the swell mix will look on Thursday morning.

Most spots are going to average around chest-shoulder high with some head high sets mixing in at the more NW facing spots and the good combo breaks. The purely summer spots will be in the chest-head high range as well…but expect the swell to be a lot more finicky and inconsistent on the sets. The standout NW facing spots in Southern Ventura, the South Bay, will see a lot of overhead surf with some bigger sets mixing in. The even more exposed spots of Southern SD will be consistently head high+ with sets going several feet overhead…and possibly even a few bigger waves showing at the extreme focal breaks.

Soooo…the models are not liking the wind tomorrow morning…but these models also have some…hmmm lets call it “flexibility” (I like to use the term dumb-assedness) as we move through a transitional season like Spring. Basically, they get the winds wrong a lot more than they do in the other more stable times of year. While I am not ready to hold my breath...a dry-cold front, like the one we have moving through is pretty unstable, and the lack of cloud cover means that we could see the air temps drop off pretty quickly over the next several hours. Sometimes the drop in temps can sort of scramble the wind pattern…shifting a WNW flow to something a little more northerly, which means a few more spots, particularly spots exposed to the SSW-SW swell could clean up a bit more than the models suggest. Like I said…I am not holding my breath…but with swell in the water it is always worth a check.

The early morning dawn patrol is going to be your best bet…but watch the negative low-tide drainer…fortunately it hits a bit before sunup…so we might actually have the tides working for us for a change (or the negative low tide will just make everything close out…or it might open some sort of time/space wormhole and drop the swampthing right back into the lineup…I am voting for the latter). I wouldn’t hop right out of bed and jam to the beach though…definitely give your wind indicators a thorough checking and maybe even fire up the computer to see what the wind stations are saying before committing too much time/money/gas

Here are the tides…

04/29/2010 Thursday
04:44AM LDT -1.2 L
10:57AM LDT 3.7 H
04:01PM LDT 1.5 L
10:08PM LDT 6.0 H


katie jackson said...

your labels are so awesome btw :) "stupid weather" "sort of like chicken" bwahahah, i love it, good work on the blog bro

Anonymous said...

i agree. it's a 'beautiful letdown'.

Anonymous said...

Had the same idea about a possible land breeze setting up for early today but got up at 630 to check....nope straight howling stupid annoying west winds. Iguess its not that big of a deal but its almost May we should all be in springies headin down to all the south spots by now
Mr el' nino gives us 2 months of surf with 4 months of bad weather ey?

Anonymous said...

windy yes, still fun bruddah.

Anonymous said...

well, spank me hard!

May Grey
June Gloom
July Don't Even Try

Bring back the Endless Winter!!!

Anonymous said...

SPAC beats up the NPAC by far, way more consistant and better size, storms that make the waves stay far away from shore, plus most of so calis best waves break on south swells, go away windy stormy sloppy small endless (end this) winter!

Adam Wright said...

Trash-talking on whole oceans! I love it!

I can hardly wait until someone brings up how rad surfing the Great Lakes can be.

Anonymous said...

Well, I'll be the one to say it then: My friend at Burly Surfboards is a shaper in Michigan (yes, Michigan) and here is his website/blog:

He makes some sweet boards. Be sure to check out the super funny localism video posted on his site.

Anonymous said...

I bet there a more stoked bunch then us, any wave is a good wave to them so any swell is a surf day

Anonymous said...

Either ends of the pacific would beat up on the Atlantic hands down.