Sunday, April 11, 2010

Monday’s Surf – The weather will mostly still suck

For most areas Monday will not be a surf day…but there may be a few little pockets of weird calm winds holding around Santa Barbara and Ventura in the morning…probably because Mother Nature is going to set up some lovely flash floods for the area tonight.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of slowly fading SW swell, some local S-SW windswell, and some building W storm swell from the ass-end of this system that is just starting to break over the region.

Most spots that have exposure to the SW and W-NW energy will see chest-shoulder high surf on Monday…with a few bigger sets mixing in at the combo spots. The standout S facing areas will still have some head high sets while the standout W-NW facing breaks see some overhead sets (by the end of the day). A few of the really exposed combo spots will see more consistent overhead surf.

The weather is going to shaft most of us again on Monday. The actual nasty storm-front is forecast to move through the area late tonight (while I am writing this the rain band is pushing through San Luis Obispo). This means that it could still be straggling over us during the dawn patrol. Check out the satellite photo from this afternoon.

Worst case scenario…the front will completely clear our region but let in the NW clearing winds (that follow the front)…that would put strong WSW-WNW winds around 10-20+ knots for most areas. What could be better is that the front stalls and areas that haven’t been passed over will have S winds, which while not ideal, at least leave a few spots protected and exposed to the building W-WNW storm swell.

At this point I am expecting some sort of onshore wind for most areas…my home breaks don’t do well on straight w winds or S-SW winds…(and if it is raining I am over the poo-water) so I am planning on pretty much surfing my pillow a little longer. The one odd thing that I am seeing is a weird bubble of calm winds around Ventura and southern Santa Barbara County…both the COAMPS and NOAA models have it there…so if you live in those areas you might want to keep an eye on conditions in the morning, you might have a shot at some semi-decent surf if the winds lay down early enough to let the chop/slop dissipate. Check out the COAMPS…

The afternoon looks crappy for most areas…expect onshore W-WSW winds around 15-25 knots.

Not the best start to the week but it does look like things clean up by midweek. Here are the tides…

04/12/2010 Monday
02:54AM LDT 0.4 L
08:48AM LDT 4.2 H
02:46PM LDT 0.7 L
08:48PM LDT 5.0 H


Anonymous said...

Where do you usually surf adam?

Anonymous said...


like he's gonna announce it on the internet

refer to rule #1 and rule #2

Anonymous said...

massive rain in south san diego this morning. craptacular!

Anonymous said...

afternoon window opened up and i gots some