Friday, April 9, 2010

Waves for the Weekend – holding S swell with some southie winds (and probably rain)

Neither Saturday or Sunday look all that good this weekend...there will be swell in the water but conditions work pretty hard to junk things up for most spots.

So the weather is the main villain this weekend…but like most weather there are usually some pockets where the conditions aren’t too bad…unfortunately there won’t be very many of them and it probably won’t be worth the time/money to hunt them down unless you have one or more of the following…a) you live close by, b) you have a lot of time to kill, c) are fanatically desperate for waves.

On Saturday the S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to hold in size but will drop slightly in swell period. NW energy, mostly windswell, will be on the rise in the background.

Sizewise, look for most spots to average in the waist-chest high range…with smaller, less consistent sizes at spots that are more sheltered from the S or NW swells. The top S facing breaks will see chest-shoulder high surf with some inconsistent head high sets. The top NW facing spots, mostly in San Diego, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a few rare pluses by the afternoon as the windswell continues to build.

Winds on Saturday continue to have the eddy-ish circulation…though how much is really from the eddy as opposed to the approaching cold front is still debatable. At this point it looks like S-SE winds around 10-knots on tap for most of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles…with the strongest winds showing as you get closer to Point Conception. Orange County and San Diego will have lighter S-SE winds…but I do expect most areas to still have some of the southerly eddy funk on things. All areas will see those winds build out of the S by the afternoon, likely hitting 15+ knots by later in the day.

Sunday the S swell (180-210) will be slowly fading out while the local windswell/stormswell starts to increase…don’t expect much energy from this approaching storm to show before dark, really the main push of the W stormswell will hit on Monday.

With the S swell dropping and most of the local windswell backing off/turning more southerly we can expect the surf size to back down a bit. Look for the average spots to hold in the waist high range with some rare chest high sets at spots with some better S exposure. The standout S facing spots, mostly through Orange County, will have chest-shoulder high surf with some inconsistent head high sets still pushing through on the lower tides.

The storm is forecast to move its front over Socal on Sunday…starting in the morning but with the meat of the system hitting Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Current forecasts are calling for S winds 10-15 knots for most spots on Sunday morning…heaviest in the Northern Counties…and lighter as you head down toward SD and OC.

So like I said…unless you have a spot that somehow is protected from the S winds (but is still exposed to S swell) tucked away close by I wouldn’t waste a ton of time trying to find clean surf. I am hoping that this storm stalls out, or does something weird like heading out to sea, or just grinds through the Central Coast…something/anything that can help deflect some of the junky conditions. Like usual…since we have some swell in the water…it is always a good idea to keep a “weather eye” on conditions, storm fronts are dynamic enough that they can sometimes open some quick windows as they pass over a region…so if you are close to the beach you might be able to grab a few nuggets before things switch again.

Here are the tides…cross your fingers that the weather part of this forecast is wrong (I will be)…have a good weekend!

04/10/2010 Saturday
01:51AM LDT 1.2 L
07:35AM LDT 4.2 H
02:00PM LDT 0.5 L
08:09PM LDT 4.4 H

04/11/2010 Sunday
02:23AM LDT 0.9 L
08:12AM LDT 4.2 H
02:23PM LDT 0.6 L
08:28PM LDT 4.7 H


Anonymous said...

From my oc perspective i cant think of anything worse to surfing then eddys, why do they have to start at dawn?

Anonymous said...

Surfed the last 4 days of this swell in HI. Got back on a red-eye, took one look and decided to do some chores.

Anon 7:59 - Eddy's don't start @ dawn. They start in April and keep going 24/7 until around July. However, just to keep everyone on their toes, there are also strong Nwesterlies that blow through the San Pedro channel.

The bottom line is that OC has the worst wind conditions in SoCal. You need to go north of Pt Conception to find a worse situation.

Ripped up beachies, island blockage & windy conditions all do their part to ensure that OC has the worst surf in California.

That's why most of the surf brands are located here. In all other major surf regions, people are too busy actually surfing. Here, they have nothing better to do than to exploit what is a pretty fun trip.

Anonymous said...

south san diego fun again this morning. punchy little suckers, too!

Anonymous said...

Newport was rockin peaks well over head, wind wasnt so bad either.How is creek today?
If oc sucks so bad why is it like....always so good and open to the most swells? Sure its crowded but year round swell window and so many nooks and differnt types of waves i guess you have to give and take with the crowdeds.

Anonymous said...

Dont worry anon 1:01 i know socal pretty well, south winds suck in oc but there are a few protected spots. I'd say oc probably has the best swell window, winter time the biggest spots aren't too well known outside the area and sights like ''surfline'' usually dont have reports for them, SD VC, and even parts of LA have more size and more go to spots but come summer time where oc really shines most surfers in other counties are riding ''fishes in the summer slop''
Socal is a very wave rich zone, really no county is better or worse than another it just depends on how you put it all into perspective.

Anonymous said...

in my opinion, overall, sd county has the best and most diverse spots. oc may have a good swell window, but north sd is its neighbor and shares that swell window, plus has way more coastline than oc, offering everything, all year-round, all the way from north county to the border. Just to name 4 of the top peaks that offer a SD surfer the reality of year-round sessions: Trestles, Encinitas, Blacks, Imperial Beach. It doesn't get better than that.

er said...

Anon A-hole #2... I've been on O'ahu for the past week and you did not surf 'this' swell for the past 4 days! Town has been shit/flat, dominated by winds for the past week, and the only decent surf was up in the North Shore..

If OC sucks so bad, don't effin surf there... or pick up a kite! Go to LA County and get stoked.. Kook!

Anonymous said...

But treastles is oc cuz cuz surfline says so.
I agree though SD and OC probably habe the best swell windows, and arte probably the two best countys.

Anonymous said...

arguing on the internet's hahaha

Anonymous said...

man, this is what i hate about the surf scene nowadays. buncha know-it-alls who wanna dish out their own brand of self-promotion for who-knows-what reasons. just shut up and surf, or stay out the way and get skunked.

Anonymous said...

A certain spot in south OC was firing on Sat, with clean overhead combo sets...but shhh don't tell anyone, cuz OC sucks right? Idiots...

Anonymous said...

pretty sure everywhere in oc south of Huntington was firing saturday...and has been pretty much since late december.

Anonymous said...

Adam rules, but I surfed all day Saturday at Tower 9 in HB and it was cranking, dumping tee-pees. San Diego North County SUCKS most of the time. So don't bother, trust me.

SC Fool said...

Best swell window? OC? Really? Maybe you guys should take a look at the map.

Anonymous said...

how many of you were actually born here and spent there whole lives in the ocean. who cares where you think the best place is the sun shines on a dogs butt every once in a while . enjoy the ocean while you can, before a bunch of kooks destroy it with pollution.